Q9: Make a prediction

*The author of this computation has been verified*

R Software Module: rwasp_centraltendency.wasp (opens new window with default values)

Title produced by software: Central Tendency

Date of computation: Mon, 20 Oct 2008 14:40:16 -0600

Cite this page as follows:

Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Oct/20/t1224535843k7jpgobkoeq9l00.htm/, Retrieved Mon, 20 Oct 2008 20:50:44 +0000

BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:

@Manual{KEY, author = {{YOUR NAME}}, publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education}, title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Oct/20/t1224535843k7jpgobkoeq9l00.htm/}, year = {2008}, } @Manual{R, title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing}, author = {{R Development Core Team}}, organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing}, address = {Vienna, Austria}, year = {2008}, note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0}, url = {http://www.R-project.org}, }

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Q9: Make a prediction

Dataseries X:

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577992 565464 547344 554788 562325 560854 555332 543599 536662 542722 593530 610763 612613 611324 594167 595454 590865 589379 584428 573100 567456 569028 620735 628884 628232 612117 595404 597141 593408 590072 579799 574205 572775 572942 619567 625809 619916 587625 565742 557274 560576 548854 531673 525919 511038 498662 555362 564591 541657 527070 509846 514258 516922 507561 492622 490243 469357 477580 528379 533590

Output produced by software:

Summary of computational transaction Raw Input view raw input (R code) Raw Output view raw output of R engine Computing time 1 seconds R Server 'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135 Central Tendency - Ungrouped Data Measure Value S.E. Value/S.E. Arithmetic Mean 563109.933333333 5154.20041527574 109.252626588679 Geometric Mean 561688.82708944 Harmonic Mean 560238.16314564 Quadratic Mean 564499.936361378 Winsorized Mean ( 1 / 20 ) 563236.116666667 5111.25724951046 110.195219917881 Winsorized Mean ( 2 / 20 ) 563577.45 4981.29796522144 113.138674685755 Winsorized Mean ( 3 / 20 ) 563442.7 4899.87198006983 114.991310444803 Winsorized Mean ( 4 / 20 ) 563790.766666667 4793.32350633309 117.620011651992 Winsorized Mean ( 5 / 20 ) 564503.266666667 4624.58697076908 122.065661265483 Winsorized Mean ( 6 / 20 ) 564036.366666667 4442.39238620088 126.966804737622 Winsorized Mean ( 7 / 20 ) 564117.566666667 4403.09973546286 128.118280429404 Winsorized Mean ( 8 / 20 ) 564441.166666667 4297.18788161801 131.351288846635 Winsorized Mean ( 9 / 20 ) 564756.616666667 4203.50754244284 134.353658454116 Winsorized Mean ( 10 / 20 ) 563985.783333333 3527.05450502366 159.902769444032 Winsorized Mean ( 11 / 20 ) 563887.516666667 3439.91406306825 163.924884845438 Winsorized Mean ( 12 / 20 ) 564139.316666667 3391.21079442950 166.353361930004 Winsorized Mean ( 13 / 20 ) 564585 3223.84908075428 175.127614803825 Winsorized Mean ( 14 / 20 ) 564883.666666667 3124.05946485093 180.817194109851 Winsorized Mean ( 15 / 20 ) 565621.166666667 2991.03099188966 189.105752565045 Winsorized Mean ( 16 / 20 ) 566275.033333333 2671.08317043311 212.002022101585 Winsorized Mean ( 17 / 20 ) 566352.1 2589.19900181831 218.736412149962 Winsorized Mean ( 18 / 20 ) 566407.3 2516.41394734785 225.085105968738 Winsorized Mean ( 19 / 20 ) 567037.783333333 2251.21438729542 251.880845526473 Winsorized Mean ( 20 / 20 ) 566475.45 2013.33462062082 281.361798579376 Trimmed Mean ( 1 / 20 ) 563592.327586207 4947.19639880419 113.921559233516 Trimmed Mean ( 2 / 20 ) 563973.982142857 4744.40771565817 118.871314596667 Trimmed Mean ( 3 / 20 ) 564194.277777778 4581.22281473829 123.15364272672 Trimmed Mean ( 4 / 20 ) 564483.346153846 4417.10685061809 127.794813493103 Trimmed Mean ( 5 / 20 ) 564691.12 4253.94614922691 132.745244107668 Trimmed Mean ( 6 / 20 ) 564738.083333333 4107.38086647672 137.493478616158 Trimmed Mean ( 7 / 20 ) 564890.630434783 3977.82525724273 142.009915947475 Trimmed Mean ( 8 / 20 ) 565041.227272727 3820.93725964444 147.880268341624 Trimmed Mean ( 9 / 20 ) 565148.380952381 3646.77772694252 154.971984384199 Trimmed Mean ( 10 / 20 ) 565213.675 3443.14714703537 164.156119638007 Trimmed Mean ( 11 / 20 ) 565407.552631579 3365.94052739994 167.979067968956 Trimmed Mean ( 12 / 20 ) 565637.861111111 3279.91588746022 172.454989859240 Trimmed Mean ( 13 / 20 ) 565858.235294118 3170.57997389616 178.471522545689 Trimmed Mean ( 14 / 20 ) 566041.875 3063.1617431039 184.790070675938 Trimmed Mean ( 15 / 20 ) 566207.333333333 2935.7788300036 192.864437724908 Trimmed Mean ( 16 / 20 ) 566291.071428571 2790.13624429270 202.961798939724 Trimmed Mean ( 17 / 20 ) 566293.384615385 2681.7442022666 211.166070252620 Trimmed Mean ( 18 / 20 ) 566284.75 2537.26011449101 223.187503230665 Trimmed Mean ( 19 / 20 ) 566266.181818182 2328.81862795045 243.155982617909 Trimmed Mean ( 20 / 20 ) 566144.35 2109.54229667181 268.373073577713 Median 565603 Midrange 549120.5 Midmean - Weighted Average at Xnp 565155.161290323 Midmean - Weighted Average at X(n+1)p 566207.333333333 Midmean - Empirical Distribution Function 565155.161290323 Midmean - Empirical Distribution Function - Averaging 566207.333333333 Midmean - Empirical Distribution Function - Interpolation 566207.333333333 Midmean - Closest Observation 565155.161290323 Midmean - True Basic - Statistics Graphics Toolkit 566207.333333333 Midmean - MS Excel (old versions) 566041.875 Number of observations 60

Charts produced by software:

http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Oct/20/t1224535843k7jpgobkoeq9l00/1stwx1224535214.png (open in new window) http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Oct/20/t1224535843k7jpgobkoeq9l00/1stwx1224535214.ps (open in new window) http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Oct/20/t1224535843k7jpgobkoeq9l00/2ahhg1224535214.png (open in new window) http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Oct/20/t1224535843k7jpgobkoeq9l00/2ahhg1224535214.ps (open in new window)

Parameters (Session):

Parameters (R input):

R code (references can be found in the software module):

geomean <- function(x) { return(exp(mean(log(x)))) } harmean <- function(x) { return(1/mean(1/x)) } quamean <- function(x) { return(sqrt(mean(x*x))) } winmean <- function(x) { x <-sort(x[!is.na(x)]) n<-length(x) denom <- 3 nodenom <- n/denom if (nodenom>40) denom <- n/40 sqrtn = sqrt(n) roundnodenom = floor(nodenom) win <- array(NA,dim=c(roundnodenom,2)) for (j in 1:roundnodenom) { win[j,1] <- (j*x[j+1]+sum(x[(j+1):(n-j)])+j*x[n-j])/n win[j,2] <- sd(c(rep(x[j+1],j),x[(j+1):(n-j)],rep(x[n-j],j)))/sqrtn } return(win) } trimean <- function(x) { x <-sort(x[!is.na(x)]) n<-length(x) denom <- 3 nodenom <- n/denom if (nodenom>40) denom <- n/40 sqrtn = sqrt(n) roundnodenom = floor(nodenom) tri <- array(NA,dim=c(roundnodenom,2)) for (j in 1:roundnodenom) { tri[j,1] <- mean(x,trim=j/n) tri[j,2] <- sd(x[(j+1):(n-j)]) / sqrt(n-j*2) } return(tri) } midrange <- function(x) { return((max(x)+min(x))/2) } q1 <- function(data,n,p,i,f) { np <- n*p; i <<- floor(np) f <<- np - i qvalue <- (1-f)*data[i] + f*data[i+1] } q2 <- function(data,n,p,i,f) { np <- (n+1)*p i <<- floor(np) f <<- np - i qvalue <- (1-f)*data[i] + f*data[i+1] } q3 <- function(data,n,p,i,f) { np <- n*p i <<- floor(np) f <<- np - i if (f==0) { qvalue <- data[i] } else { qvalue <- data[i+1] } } q4 <- function(data,n,p,i,f) { np <- n*p i <<- floor(np) f <<- np - i if (f==0) { qvalue <- (data[i]+data[i+1])/2 } else { qvalue <- data[i+1] } } q5 <- function(data,n,p,i,f) { np <- (n-1)*p i <<- floor(np) f <<- np - i if (f==0) { qvalue <- data[i+1] } else { qvalue <- data[i+1] + f*(data[i+2]-data[i+1]) } } q6 <- function(data,n,p,i,f) { np <- n*p+0.5 i <<- floor(np) f <<- np - i qvalue <- data[i] } q7 <- function(data,n,p,i,f) { np <- (n+1)*p i <<- floor(np) f <<- np - i if (f==0) { qvalue <- data[i] } else { qvalue <- f*data[i] + (1-f)*data[i+1] } } q8 <- function(data,n,p,i,f) { np <- (n+1)*p i <<- floor(np) f <<- np - i if (f==0) { qvalue <- data[i] } else { if (f == 0.5) { qvalue <- (data[i]+data[i+1])/2 } else { if (f < 0.5) { qvalue <- data[i] } else { qvalue <- data[i+1] } } } } midmean <- function(x,def) { x <-sort(x[!is.na(x)]) n<-length(x) if (def==1) { qvalue1 <- q1(x,n,0.25,i,f) qvalue3 <- q1(x,n,0.75,i,f) } if (def==2) { qvalue1 <- q2(x,n,0.25,i,f) qvalue3 <- q2(x,n,0.75,i,f) } if (def==3) { qvalue1 <- q3(x,n,0.25,i,f) qvalue3 <- q3(x,n,0.75,i,f) } if (def==4) { qvalue1 <- q4(x,n,0.25,i,f) qvalue3 <- q4(x,n,0.75,i,f) } if (def==5) { qvalue1 <- q5(x,n,0.25,i,f) qvalue3 <- q5(x,n,0.75,i,f) } if (def==6) { qvalue1 <- q6(x,n,0.25,i,f) qvalue3 <- q6(x,n,0.75,i,f) } if (def==7) { qvalue1 <- q7(x,n,0.25,i,f) qvalue3 <- q7(x,n,0.75,i,f) } if (def==8) { qvalue1 <- q8(x,n,0.25,i,f) qvalue3 <- q8(x,n,0.75,i,f) } midm <- 0 myn <- 0 roundno4 <- round(n/4) round3no4 <- round(3*n/4) for (i in 1:n) { if ((x[i]>=qvalue1) & (x[i]<=qvalue3)){ midm = midm + x[i] myn = myn + 1 } } midm = midm / myn return(midm) } (arm <- mean(x)) sqrtn <- sqrt(length(x)) (armse <- sd(x) / sqrtn) (armose <- arm / armse) (geo <- geomean(x)) (har <- harmean(x)) (qua <- quamean(x)) (win <- winmean(x)) (tri <- trimean(x)) (midr <- midrange(x)) midm <- array(NA,dim=8) for (j in 1:8) midm[j] <- midmean(x,j) midm bitmap(file='test1.png') lb <- win[,1] - 2*win[,2] ub <- win[,1] + 2*win[,2] if ((ylimmin == '') | (ylimmax == '')) plot(win[,1],type='b',main=main, xlab='j', pch=19, ylab='Winsorized Mean(j/n)', ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub))) else plot(win[,1],type='l',main=main, xlab='j', pch=19, ylab='Winsorized Mean(j/n)', ylim=c(ylimmin,ylimmax)) lines(ub,lty=3) lines(lb,lty=3) grid() dev.off() bitmap(file='test2.png') lb <- tri[,1] - 2*tri[,2] ub <- tri[,1] + 2*tri[,2] if ((ylimmin == '') | (ylimmax == '')) plot(tri[,1],type='b',main=main, xlab='j', pch=19, ylab='Trimmed Mean(j/n)', ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub))) else plot(tri[,1],type='l',main=main, xlab='j', pch=19, ylab='Trimmed Mean(j/n)', ylim=c(ylimmin,ylimmax)) lines(ub,lty=3) lines(lb,lty=3) grid() dev.off() load(file='createtable') a<-table.start() a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,'Central Tendency - Ungrouped Data',4,TRUE) a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,'Measure',header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,'Value',header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,'S.E.',header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,'Value/S.E.',header=TRUE) a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/arithmetic_mean.htm', 'Arithmetic Mean', 'click to view the definition of the Arithmetic Mean'),header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,arm) a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/arithmetic_mean_standard_error.htm', armse, 'click to view the definition of the Standard Error of the Arithmetic Mean')) a<-table.element(a,armose) a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/geometric_mean.htm', 'Geometric Mean', 'click to view the definition of the Geometric Mean'),header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,geo) a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/harmonic_mean.htm', 'Harmonic Mean', 'click to view the definition of the Harmonic Mean'),header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,har) a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/quadratic_mean.htm', 'Quadratic Mean', 'click to view the definition of the Quadratic Mean'),header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,qua) a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.row.end(a) for (j in 1:length(win[,1])) { a<-table.row.start(a) mylabel <- paste('Winsorized Mean (',j) mylabel <- paste(mylabel,'/') mylabel <- paste(mylabel,length(win[,1])) mylabel <- paste(mylabel,')') a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/winsorized_mean.htm', mylabel, 'click to view the definition of the Winsorized Mean'),header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,win[j,1]) a<-table.element(a,win[j,2]) a<-table.element(a,win[j,1]/win[j,2]) a<-table.row.end(a) } for (j in 1:length(tri[,1])) { a<-table.row.start(a) mylabel <- paste('Trimmed Mean (',j) mylabel <- paste(mylabel,'/') mylabel <- paste(mylabel,length(tri[,1])) mylabel <- paste(mylabel,')') a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/arithmetic_mean.htm', mylabel, 'click to view the definition of the Trimmed Mean'),header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,tri[j,1]) a<-table.element(a,tri[j,2]) a<-table.element(a,tri[j,1]/tri[j,2]) a<-table.row.end(a) } a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/median_1.htm', 'Median', 'click to view the definition of the Median'),header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,median(x)) a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/midrange.htm', 'Midrange', 'click to view the definition of the Midrange'),header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,midr) a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) mymid <- hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/midmean.htm', 'Midmean', 'click to view the definition of the Midmean') mylabel <- paste(mymid,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/method_1.htm','Weighted Average at Xnp',''),sep=' - ') a<-table.element(a,mylabel,header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,midm[1]) a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) mymid <- hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/midmean.htm', 'Midmean', 'click to view the definition of the Midmean') mylabel <- paste(mymid,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/method_2.htm','Weighted Average at X(n+1)p',''),sep=' - ') a<-table.element(a,mylabel,header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,midm[2]) a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) mymid <- hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/midmean.htm', 'Midmean', 'click to view the definition of the Midmean') mylabel <- paste(mymid,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/method_3.htm','Empirical Distribution Function',''),sep=' - ') a<-table.element(a,mylabel,header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,midm[3]) a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) mymid <- hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/midmean.htm', 'Midmean', 'click to view the definition of the Midmean') mylabel <- paste(mymid,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/method_4.htm','Empirical Distribution Function - Averaging',''),sep=' - ') a<-table.element(a,mylabel,header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,midm[4]) a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) mymid <- hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/midmean.htm', 'Midmean', 'click to view the definition of the Midmean') mylabel <- paste(mymid,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/method_5.htm','Empirical Distribution Function - Interpolation',''),sep=' - ') a<-table.element(a,mylabel,header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,midm[5]) a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) mymid <- hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/midmean.htm', 'Midmean', 'click to view the definition of the Midmean') mylabel <- paste(mymid,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/method_6.htm','Closest Observation',''),sep=' - ') a<-table.element(a,mylabel,header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,midm[6]) a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) mymid <- hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/midmean.htm', 'Midmean', 'click to view the definition of the Midmean') mylabel <- paste(mymid,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/method_7.htm','True Basic - Statistics Graphics Toolkit',''),sep=' - ') a<-table.element(a,mylabel,header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,midm[7]) a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) mymid <- hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/midmean.htm', 'Midmean', 'click to view the definition of the Midmean') mylabel <- paste(mymid,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/method_8.htm','MS Excel (old versions)',''),sep=' - ') a<-table.element(a,mylabel,header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,midm[8]) a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,'Number of observations',header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,length(x)) a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.element(a,'') a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.end(a) table.save(a,file='mytable.tab')

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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa

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