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Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(1178,2141,2238,2685,4341,5376,4478,6404,4617,3024,1897,2075,1351,2211,2453,3042,4765,4992,4601,6266,4812,3159,1916,2237,1595,2453,2226,3597,4706,4974,5756,5493,5004,3225,2006,2291,1588,2105,2191,3591,4668,4885,5822,5599,5340,3082,2010,2301,1514,1979,2480,3499,4676,5585,5610,5796,6199,3030,1930,2552) > par3 = 'multiplicative' > par2 = 'Triple' > par1 = '12' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education > #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!) > par1 <- as.numeric(par1) > if (par2 == 'Single') K <- 1 > if (par2 == 'Double') K <- 2 > if (par2 == 'Triple') K <- par1 > nx <- length(x) > nxmK <- nx - K > x <- ts(x, frequency = par1) > if (par2 == 'Single') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=0, beta=0) > if (par2 == 'Double') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=0) > if (par2 == 'Triple') fit <- HoltWinters(x, seasonal=par3) > fit Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with trend and multiplicative seasonal component. Call: HoltWinters(x = x, seasonal = par3) Smoothing parameters: alpha: 0 beta : 0 gamma: 1 Coefficients: [,1] a 3777.4632867 b 8.1720571 s1 0.4105684 s2 0.5354810 s3 0.6695618 s4 0.9425965 s5 1.2569018 s6 1.4979492 s7 1.5013637 s8 1.5477565 s9 1.6517685 s10 0.8056113 s11 0.5120326 s12 0.6755857 > myresid <- x - fit$fitted[,'xhat'] > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1u9nr1259934089.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1)) > plot(fit,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Interpolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing') > plot(myresid,ylab='Residuals',main='Interpolation Prediction Errors') > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2xz401259934089.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > p <- predict(fit, par1, prediction.interval=TRUE) > np <- length(p[,1]) > plot(fit,p,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Extrapolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3gl281259934089.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2)) > acf(as.numeric(myresid),lag.max = nx/2,main='Residual ACF') > spectrum(myresid,main='Residals Periodogram') > cpgram(myresid,main='Residal Cumulative Periodogram') > qqnorm(myresid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot') > qqline(myresid) > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > > #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing',2,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Value',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'alpha',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$alpha) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'beta',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$beta) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'gamma',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$gamma) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4kauc1259934090.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Fitted',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Residuals',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in 1:nxmK) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,i+K,header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,x[i+K]) + a<-table.element(a,fit$fitted[i,'xhat']) + a<-table.element(a,myresid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/5vre81259934090.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Forecast',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'95% Lower Bound',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'95% Upper Bound',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in 1:np) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'fit']) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'lwr']) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'upr']) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/6k1bw1259934090.tab") > system("convert tmp/1u9nr1259934089.ps tmp/1u9nr1259934089.png") > system("convert tmp/2xz401259934089.ps tmp/2xz401259934089.png") > system("convert tmp/3gl281259934089.ps tmp/3gl281259934089.png") > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 0.802 0.499 1.047