R version 2.9.0 (2009-04-17)
Copyright (C) 2009 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

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> x <- c(10284.5,12792,12823.61538,13845.66667,15335.63636,11188.5,13633.25,12298.46667,15353.63636,12696.15385,12213.93333,13683.72727,11214.14286,13950.23077,11179.13333,11801.875,11188.82353,16456.27273,11110.0625,16530.69231,10038.41176,11681.25,11148.88235,8631,9386.444444,9764.736842,12043.75,12948.06667,10987.125,11648.3125,10633.35294,10219.3,9037.6,10296.31579,11705.41176,10681.94444,9362.947368,11306.35294,10984.45,10062.61905,8118.583333,8867.48,8346.72,8529.307692,10697.18182,8591.84,8695.607143,8125.571429,7009.758621,7883.466667,7527.645161,6763.758621,6682.333333,7855.681818,6738.88,7895.434783,6361.884615,6935.956522,8344.454545,9107.944444)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '0'
> par8 = '0'
> par7 = '1'
> par6 = '0'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '0'
> par3 = '1'
> par2 = '1'
> par1 = '24'
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par1 <- 28
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par6 <- 3
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par7 <- 3
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")

Coefficients:
          ar1      ar2      ar3      ma1     ma2      ma3
      -0.4896  -0.3384  -0.0348  -0.3537  0.5890  -0.8419
s.e.   0.2240   0.2337   0.2335   0.1556  0.1688   0.1798

sigma^2 estimated as 2324426:  log likelihood = -273.87,  aic = 561.74
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,par1))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 33 
End = 60 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 11376.566  9845.417 11631.974 11235.255 10878.153 11125.023 11138.839
 [8] 11060.961 11085.814 11099.523 11087.112 11087.683 11091.126 11089.680
[15] 11089.203 11089.806 11089.722 11089.576 11089.655 11089.669 11089.640
[22] 11089.647 11089.653 11089.649 11089.648 11089.650 11089.649 11089.649

$se
Time Series:
Start = 33 
End = 60 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 1568.222 1581.835 1989.831 1993.530 2008.190 2064.765 2084.604 2104.464
 [9] 2132.523 2156.909 2179.754 2203.743 2227.330 2250.321 2273.249 2295.986
[17] 2318.437 2340.685 2362.737 2384.577 2406.217 2427.668 2448.930 2470.008
[25] 2490.909 2511.635 2532.192 2552.583

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 33 
End = 60 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 8302.852 6745.022 7731.907 7327.937 6942.100 7078.083 7053.015 6936.211
 [9] 6906.069 6871.982 6814.794 6768.348 6725.560 6679.050 6633.635 6589.674
[17] 6545.586 6501.833 6458.690 6415.898 6373.454 6331.417 6289.750 6248.432
[25] 6207.467 6166.845 6126.553 6086.586
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 33 
End = 60 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 14450.28 12945.81 15532.04 15142.57 14814.21 15171.96 15224.66 15185.71
 [9] 15265.56 15327.06 15359.43 15407.02 15456.69 15500.31 15544.77 15589.94
[17] 15633.86 15677.32 15720.62 15763.44 15805.83 15847.88 15889.56 15930.86
[25] 15971.83 16012.45 16052.75 16092.71
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> if (par2 < 0) {
+ olb <- lb
+ lb <- ub
+ ub <- olb
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
 [1] 10284.500 12792.000 12823.615 13845.667 15335.636 11188.500 13633.250
 [8] 12298.467 15353.636 12696.154 12213.933 13683.727 11214.143 13950.231
[15] 11179.133 11801.875 11188.824 16456.273 11110.062 16530.692 10038.412
[22] 11681.250 11148.882  8631.000  9386.444  9764.737 12043.750 12948.067
[29] 10987.125 11648.312 10633.353 10219.300 11376.566  9845.417 11631.974
[36] 11235.255 10878.153 11125.023 11138.839 11060.961 11085.814 11099.523
[43] 11087.112 11087.683 11091.126 11089.680 11089.203 11089.806 11089.722
[50] 11089.576 11089.655 11089.669 11089.640 11089.647 11089.653 11089.649
[57] 11089.648 11089.650 11089.649 11089.649
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 33 
End = 60 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.1378467 0.1606671 0.1710656 0.1774352 0.1846077 0.1855965 0.1871474
 [8] 0.1902605 0.1923650 0.1943244 0.1966025 0.1987559 0.2008209 0.2029203
[15] 0.2049966 0.2070357 0.2090618 0.2110707 0.2130578 0.2150269 0.2169789
[22] 0.2189130 0.2208302 0.2227310 0.2246157 0.2264846 0.2283383 0.2301771
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1eo631260472054.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
> lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
> lines(x, lwd=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
> box()
> par(opar)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape1 <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse1 <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
+ perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]
+ perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
+ prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ }
> perf.mape[1] = abs(perf.pe[1])
> perf.mse[1] = abs(perf.se[1])
> for (i in 2:fx) {
+ perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i-1] + abs(perf.pe[i])
+ perf.mape1[i] = perf.mape[i] / i
+ perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i-1] + perf.se[i]
+ perf.mse1[i] = perf.mse[i] / i
+ }
> perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse1)
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/279op1260472054.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
> dum <- forecast$pred
> dum[1:par1] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
> lines(dum, lty=1)
> lines(ub,lty=3)
> lines(lb,lty=3)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> 
> #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab
> load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable")
> 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
> mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
> mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
> a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i])
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/391mb1260472054.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape1[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse1[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4xndw1260472054.tab") 
> 
> system("convert tmp/1eo631260472054.ps tmp/1eo631260472054.png")
> system("convert tmp/279op1260472054.ps tmp/279op1260472054.png")
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  0.707   0.321   0.823