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Type 'q()' to quit R. > y <- c(274412,272433,268361,268586,264768,269974,304744,309365,308347,298427,289231,291975,294912,293488,290555,284736,281818,287854,316263,325412,326011,328282,317480,317539,313737,312276,309391,302950,300316,304035,333476,337698,335932,323931,313927,314485,313218,309664,302963,298989,298423,301631,329765,335083,327616,309119,295916,291413,291542,284678,276475,272566,264981,263290,296806,303598,286994,276427,266424,267153,268381,262522,255542,253158,243803,250741,280445,285257,270976,261076,255603,260376,263903,264291,263276,262572,256167,264221,293860) > x <- c(244752,244576,241572,240541,236089,236997,264579,270349,269645,267037,258113,262813,267413,267366,264777,258863,254844,254868,277267,285351,286602,283042,276687,277915,277128,277103,275037,270150,267140,264993,287259,291186,292300,288186,281477,282656,280190,280408,276836,275216,274352,271311,289802,290726,292300,278506,269826,265861,269034,264176,255198,253353,246057,235372,258556,260993,254663,250643,243422,247105,248541,245039,237080,237085,225554,226839,247934,248333,246969,245098,246263,255765,264319,268347,273046,273963,267430,271993,292710) > par8 = '1' > par7 = '0' > par6 = '1' > par5 = '1' > par4 = '12' > par3 = '0' > par2 = '1' > par1 = '1' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: Wessa P., (2008), Bivariate Granger Causality (v1.0.0) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_grangercausality.wasp#output/ > #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education > #Technical description: > library(lmtest) Loading required package: zoo Attaching package: 'zoo' The following object(s) are masked from package:base : as.Date.numeric > par1 <- as.numeric(par1) > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) > ox <- x > oy <- y > if (par1 == 0) { + x <- log(x) + } else { + x <- (x ^ par1 - 1) / par1 + } > if (par5 == 0) { + y <- log(y) + } else { + y <- (y ^ par5 - 1) / par5 + } > if (par2 > 0) x <- diff(x,lag=1,difference=par2) > if (par6 > 0) y <- diff(y,lag=1,difference=par6) > if (par3 > 0) x <- diff(x,lag=par4,difference=par3) > if (par7 > 0) y <- diff(y,lag=par4,difference=par7) > x [1] -176 -3004 -1031 -4452 908 27582 5770 -704 -2608 -8924 [11] 4700 4600 -47 -2589 -5914 -4019 24 22399 8084 1251 [21] -3560 -6355 1228 -787 -25 -2066 -4887 -3010 -2147 22266 [31] 3927 1114 -4114 -6709 1179 -2466 218 -3572 -1620 -864 [41] -3041 18491 924 1574 -13794 -8680 -3965 3173 -4858 -8978 [51] -1845 -7296 -10685 23184 2437 -6330 -4020 -7221 3683 1436 [61] -3502 -7959 5 -11531 1285 21095 399 -1364 -1871 1165 [71] 9502 8554 4028 4699 917 -6533 4563 20717 > y [1] -1979 -4072 225 -3818 5206 34770 4621 -1018 -9920 -9196 [11] 2744 2937 -1424 -2933 -5819 -2918 6036 28409 9149 599 [21] 2271 -10802 59 -3802 -1461 -2885 -6441 -2634 3719 29441 [31] 4222 -1766 -12001 -10004 558 -1267 -3554 -6701 -3974 -566 [41] 3208 28134 5318 -7467 -18497 -13203 -4503 129 -6864 -8203 [51] -3909 -7585 -1691 33516 6792 -16604 -10567 -10003 729 1228 [61] -5859 -6980 -2384 -9355 6938 29704 4812 -14281 -9900 -5473 [71] 4773 3527 388 -1015 -704 -6405 8054 29639 > (gyx <- grangertest(y ~ x, order=par8)) Granger causality test Model 1: ~ Lags(, 1:1) + Lags(, 1:1) Model 2: ~ Lags(, 1:1) Res.Df Df F Pr(>F) 1 74 2 75 -1 22.999 8.18e-06 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 > (gxy <- grangertest(x ~ y, order=par8)) Granger causality test Model 1: ~ Lags(, 1:1) + Lags(, 1:1) Model 2: ~ Lags(, 1:1) Res.Df Df F Pr(>F) 1 74 2 75 -1 19.762 3.029e-05 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1hq5v1260529323.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1)) > (r <- ccf(ox,oy,main='Cross Correlation Function (raw data)',ylab='CCF',xlab='Lag (k)')) Autocorrelations of series 'X', by lag -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 0.057 0.181 0.362 0.530 0.540 0.482 0.433 0.427 0.466 0.492 0.491 0.473 0.498 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0.580 0.726 0.846 0.751 0.614 0.504 0.439 0.423 0.393 0.332 0.257 0.226 0.251 11 12 13 14 15 0.330 0.373 0.267 0.143 0.043 > (r <- ccf(x,y,main='Cross Correlation Function (transformed and differenced)',ylab='CCF',xlab='Lag (k)')) Autocorrelations of series 'X', by lag -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -0.232 -0.265 0.063 0.737 0.314 -0.065 -0.221 -0.205 0.084 0.220 0.092 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -0.207 -0.266 -0.301 0.119 0.925 0.312 -0.097 -0.233 -0.240 0.069 0.204 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0.095 -0.180 -0.283 -0.309 0.120 0.708 0.204 -0.079 -0.217 > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2owj71260529323.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1)) > acf(ox,lag.max=round(length(x)/2),main='ACF of x (raw)') > acf(x,lag.max=round(length(x)/2),main='ACF of x (transformed and differenced)') > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3o3a41260529323.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1)) > acf(oy,lag.max=round(length(y)/2),main='ACF of y (raw)') > acf(y,lag.max=round(length(y)/2),main='ACF of y (transformed and differenced)') > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > > #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Granger Causality Test: Y = f(X)',5,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Model',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Res.DF',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Diff. DF',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'F',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'p-value',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Complete model',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,gyx$Res.Df[1]) > a<-table.element(a,'') > a<-table.element(a,'') > a<-table.element(a,'') > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Reduced model',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,gyx$Res.Df[2]) > a<-table.element(a,gyx$Df[2]) > a<-table.element(a,gyx$F[2]) > a<-table.element(a,gyx$Pr[2]) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4dm5q1260529323.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Granger Causality Test: X = f(Y)',5,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Model',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Res.DF',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Diff. DF',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'F',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'p-value',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Complete model',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,gxy$Res.Df[1]) > a<-table.element(a,'') > a<-table.element(a,'') > a<-table.element(a,'') > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Reduced model',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,gxy$Res.Df[2]) > a<-table.element(a,gxy$Df[2]) > a<-table.element(a,gxy$F[2]) > a<-table.element(a,gxy$Pr[2]) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/5r25u1260529323.tab") > system("convert tmp/1hq5v1260529323.ps tmp/1hq5v1260529323.png") > system("convert tmp/2owj71260529323.ps tmp/2owj71260529323.png") > system("convert tmp/3o3a41260529323.ps tmp/3o3a41260529323.png") > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 0.931 0.487 1.949