R version 2.9.0 (2009-04-17) Copyright (C) 2009 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing ISBN 3-900051-07-0 R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY. You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions. Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details. R is a collaborative project with many contributors. Type 'contributors()' for more information and 'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications. Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or 'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help. Type 'q()' to quit R. > y <- c(97,112.7,102.9,97.4,111.4,87.4,96.8,114.1,110.3,103.9,101.6,94.6,95.9,104.7,102.8,98.1,113.9,80.9,95.7,113.2,105.9,108.8,102.3,99,100.7,115.5,100.7,109.9,114.6,85.4,100.5,114.8,116.5,112.9,102,106,105.3,118.8,106.1,109.3,117.2,92.5,104.2,112.5,122.4,113.3,100,110.7,112.8,109.8,117.3,109.1,115.9,96,99.8,116.8,115.7,99.4,94.3) > x <- c(93.8,93.8,107.6,101,95.4,96.5,89.2,87.1,110.5,110.8,104.2,88.9,89.8,90,93.9,91.3,87.8,99.7,73.5,79.2,96.9,95.2,95.6,89.7,92.8,88,101.1,92.7,95.8,103.8,81.8,87.1,105.9,108.1,102.6,93.7,103.5,100.6,113.3,102.4,102.1,106.9,87.3,93.1,109.1,120.3,104.9,92.6,109.8,111.4,117.9,121.6,117.8,124.2,106.8,102.7,116.8,113.6,96.1) > par8 = '3' > par7 = '1' > par6 = '0' > par5 = '1' > par4 = '12' > par3 = '1' > par2 = '0' > par1 = '1' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: Wessa P., (2008), Bivariate Granger Causality (v1.0.0) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_grangercausality.wasp#output/ > #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education > #Technical description: > library(lmtest) Loading required package: zoo Attaching package: 'zoo' The following object(s) are masked from package:base : as.Date.numeric > par1 <- as.numeric(par1) > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) > ox <- x > oy <- y > if (par1 == 0) { + x <- log(x) + } else { + x <- (x ^ par1 - 1) / par1 + } > if (par5 == 0) { + y <- log(y) + } else { + y <- (y ^ par5 - 1) / par5 + } > if (par2 > 0) x <- diff(x,lag=1,difference=par2) > if (par6 > 0) y <- diff(y,lag=1,difference=par6) > if (par3 > 0) x <- diff(x,lag=par4,difference=par3) > if (par7 > 0) y <- diff(y,lag=par4,difference=par7) > x [1] -4.0 -3.8 -13.7 -9.7 -7.6 3.2 -15.7 -7.9 -13.6 -15.6 -8.6 0.8 [13] 3.0 -2.0 7.2 1.4 8.0 4.1 8.3 7.9 9.0 12.9 7.0 4.0 [25] 10.7 12.6 12.2 9.7 6.3 3.1 5.5 6.0 3.2 12.2 2.3 -1.1 [37] 6.3 10.8 4.6 19.2 15.7 17.3 19.5 9.6 7.7 -6.7 -8.8 > y [1] -1.1 -8.0 -0.1 0.7 2.5 -6.5 -1.1 -0.9 -4.4 4.9 0.7 4.4 [13] 4.8 10.8 -2.1 11.8 0.7 4.5 4.8 1.6 10.6 4.1 -0.3 7.0 [25] 4.6 3.3 5.4 -0.6 2.6 7.1 3.7 -2.3 5.9 0.4 -2.0 4.7 [37] 7.5 -9.0 11.2 -0.2 -1.3 3.5 -4.4 4.3 -6.7 -13.9 -5.7 > (gyx <- grangertest(y ~ x, order=par8)) Granger causality test Model 1: ~ Lags(, 1:3) + Lags(, 1:3) Model 2: ~ Lags(, 1:3) Res.Df Df F Pr(>F) 1 37 2 40 -3 1.2505 0.3054 > (gxy <- grangertest(x ~ y, order=par8)) Granger causality test Model 1: ~ Lags(, 1:3) + Lags(, 1:3) Model 2: ~ Lags(, 1:3) Res.Df Df F Pr(>F) 1 37 2 40 -3 14.736 1.802e-06 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1npkv1260539181.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1)) > (r <- ccf(ox,oy,main='Cross Correlation Function (raw data)',ylab='CCF',xlab='Lag (k)')) Autocorrelations of series 'X', by lag -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -0.142 -0.225 -0.044 0.438 0.094 -0.279 -0.145 -0.031 0.136 0.159 0.196 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 -0.009 0.015 -0.074 0.158 0.796 0.281 -0.056 0.136 0.220 0.327 0.331 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 0.336 0.124 0.073 0.030 0.166 0.595 0.183 > (r <- ccf(x,y,main='Cross Correlation Function (transformed and differenced)',ylab='CCF',xlab='Lag (k)')) Autocorrelations of series 'X', by lag -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -0.238 -0.227 -0.233 -0.100 -0.263 -0.089 -0.224 -0.225 -0.159 -0.154 -0.183 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0.025 0.116 0.138 0.563 0.210 0.291 0.287 0.242 0.221 0.230 0.213 9 10 11 12 13 0.194 0.115 0.085 0.152 0.119 > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2k5fd1260539181.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1)) > acf(ox,lag.max=round(length(x)/2),main='ACF of x (raw)') > acf(x,lag.max=round(length(x)/2),main='ACF of x (transformed and differenced)') > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/39h0i1260539181.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1)) > acf(oy,lag.max=round(length(y)/2),main='ACF of y (raw)') > acf(y,lag.max=round(length(y)/2),main='ACF of y (transformed and differenced)') > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > > #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Granger Causality Test: Y = f(X)',5,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Model',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Res.DF',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Diff. DF',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'F',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'p-value',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Complete model',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,gyx$Res.Df[1]) > a<-table.element(a,'') > a<-table.element(a,'') > a<-table.element(a,'') > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Reduced model',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,gyx$Res.Df[2]) > a<-table.element(a,gyx$Df[2]) > a<-table.element(a,gyx$F[2]) > a<-table.element(a,gyx$Pr[2]) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/48hil1260539181.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Granger Causality Test: X = f(Y)',5,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Model',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Res.DF',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Diff. DF',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'F',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'p-value',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Complete model',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,gxy$Res.Df[1]) > a<-table.element(a,'') > a<-table.element(a,'') > a<-table.element(a,'') > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Reduced model',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,gxy$Res.Df[2]) > a<-table.element(a,gxy$Df[2]) > a<-table.element(a,gxy$F[2]) > a<-table.element(a,gxy$Pr[2]) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/5fh1u1260539181.tab") > > system("convert tmp/1npkv1260539181.ps tmp/1npkv1260539181.png") > system("convert tmp/2k5fd1260539181.ps tmp/2k5fd1260539181.png") > system("convert tmp/39h0i1260539181.ps tmp/39h0i1260539181.png") > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 0.925 0.475 1.442