R version 2.9.0 (2009-04-17)
Copyright (C) 2009 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

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> x <- c(255
+ ,280.2
+ ,299.9
+ ,339.2
+ ,374.2
+ ,393.5
+ ,389.2
+ ,381.7
+ ,375.2
+ ,369
+ ,357.4
+ ,352.1
+ ,346.5
+ ,342.9
+ ,340.3
+ ,328.3
+ ,322.9
+ ,314.3
+ ,308.9
+ ,294
+ ,285.6
+ ,281.2
+ ,280.3
+ ,278.8
+ ,274.5
+ ,270.4
+ ,263.4
+ ,259.9
+ ,258
+ ,262.7
+ ,284.7
+ ,311.3
+ ,322.1
+ ,327
+ ,331.3
+ ,333.3
+ ,321.4
+ ,327
+ ,320
+ ,314.7
+ ,316.7
+ ,314.4
+ ,321.3
+ ,318.2
+ ,307.2
+ ,301.3
+ ,287.5
+ ,277.7
+ ,274.4
+ ,258.8
+ ,253.3
+ ,251
+ ,248.4
+ ,249.5
+ ,246.1
+ ,244.5
+ ,243.6
+ ,244
+ ,240.8
+ ,249.8
+ ,248
+ ,259.4
+ ,260.5
+ ,260.8
+ ,261.3
+ ,259.5
+ ,256.6
+ ,257.9
+ ,256.5
+ ,254.2
+ ,253.3
+ ,253.8
+ ,255.5
+ ,257.1
+ ,257.3
+ ,253.2
+ ,252.8
+ ,252
+ ,250.7
+ ,252.2
+ ,250
+ ,251
+ ,253.4
+ ,251.2
+ ,255.6
+ ,261.1
+ ,258.9
+ ,259.9
+ ,261.2
+ ,264.7
+ ,267.1
+ ,266.4
+ ,267.7
+ ,268.6
+ ,267.5
+ ,268.5
+ ,268.5
+ ,270.5
+ ,270.9
+ ,270.1
+ ,269.3
+ ,269.8
+ ,270.1
+ ,264.9
+ ,263.7
+ ,264.8
+ ,263.7
+ ,255.9
+ ,276.2
+ ,360.1
+ ,380.5
+ ,373.7
+ ,369.8
+ ,366.6
+ ,359.3
+ ,345.8
+ ,326.2
+ ,324.5
+ ,328.1
+ ,327.5
+ ,324.4
+ ,316.5
+ ,310.9
+ ,301.5
+ ,291.7
+ ,290.4
+ ,287.4
+ ,277.7
+ ,281.6
+ ,288
+ ,276
+ ,272.9
+ ,283
+ ,283.3
+ ,276.8
+ ,284.5
+ ,282.7
+ ,281.2
+ ,287.4
+ ,283.1
+ ,284
+ ,285.5
+ ,289.2
+ ,292.5
+ ,296.4
+ ,305.2
+ ,303.9
+ ,311.5
+ ,316.3
+ ,316.7
+ ,322.5
+ ,317.1
+ ,309.8
+ ,303.8
+ ,290.3
+ ,293.7
+ ,291.7
+ ,296.5
+ ,289.1
+ ,288.5
+ ,293.8
+ ,297.7
+ ,305.4
+ ,302.7
+ ,302.5
+ ,303
+ ,294.5
+ ,294.1
+ ,294.5
+ ,297.1
+ ,289.4
+ ,292.4
+ ,287.9
+ ,286.6
+ ,280.5
+ ,272.4
+ ,269.2
+ ,270.6
+ ,267.3
+ ,262.5
+ ,266.8
+ ,268.8
+ ,263.1
+ ,261.2
+ ,266
+ ,262.5
+ ,265.2
+ ,261.3
+ ,253.7
+ ,249.2
+ ,239.1
+ ,236.4
+ ,235.2
+ ,245.2
+ ,246.2
+ ,247.7
+ ,251.4
+ ,253.3
+ ,254.8
+ ,250
+ ,249.3
+ ,241.5
+ ,243.3
+ ,248
+ ,253
+ ,252.9
+ ,251.5
+ ,251.6
+ ,253.5
+ ,259.8
+ ,334.1
+ ,448
+ ,445.8
+ ,445
+ ,448.2
+ ,438.2
+ ,439.8
+ ,423.4
+ ,410.8
+ ,408.4
+ ,406.7
+ ,405.9
+ ,402.7
+ ,405.1
+ ,399.6
+ ,386.5
+ ,381.4
+ ,375.2
+ ,357.7
+ ,359
+ ,355
+ ,352.7
+ ,344.4
+ ,343.8
+ ,338
+ ,339
+ ,333.3
+ ,334.4
+ ,328.3
+ ,330.7
+ ,330
+ ,331.6
+ ,351.2
+ ,389.4
+ ,410.9
+ ,442.8
+ ,462.8
+ ,466.9
+ ,461.7
+ ,439.2
+ ,430.3
+ ,416.1
+ ,402.5
+ ,397.3
+ ,403.3
+ ,395.9
+ ,387.8
+ ,378.6
+ ,377.1
+ ,370.4
+ ,362
+ ,350.3
+ ,348.2
+ ,344.6
+ ,343.5
+ ,342.8
+ ,347.6
+ ,346.6
+ ,349.5
+ ,342.1
+ ,342
+ ,342.8
+ ,339.3
+ ,348.2
+ ,333.7
+ ,334.7
+ ,354
+ ,367.7
+ ,363.3
+ ,358.4
+ ,353.1
+ ,343.1
+ ,344.6
+ ,344.4
+ ,333.9
+ ,331.7
+ ,324.3
+ ,321.2
+ ,322.4
+ ,321.7
+ ,320.5
+ ,312.8
+ ,309.7
+ ,315.6
+ ,309.7
+ ,304.6
+ ,302.5
+ ,301.5
+ ,298.8
+ ,291.3
+ ,293.6
+ ,294.6
+ ,285.9
+ ,297.6
+ ,301.1
+ ,293.8
+ ,297.7
+ ,292.9
+ ,292.1
+ ,287.2
+ ,288.2
+ ,283.8
+ ,299.9
+ ,292.4
+ ,293.3
+ ,300.8
+ ,293.7
+ ,293.1
+ ,294.4
+ ,292.1
+ ,291.9
+ ,282.5
+ ,277.9
+ ,287.5
+ ,289.2
+ ,285.6
+ ,293.2
+ ,290.8
+ ,283.1
+ ,275
+ ,287.8
+ ,287.8
+ ,287.4
+ ,284
+ ,277.8
+ ,277.6
+ ,304.9
+ ,294
+ ,300.9
+ ,324
+ ,332.9
+ ,341.6
+ ,333.4
+ ,348.2
+ ,344.7
+ ,344.7
+ ,329.3
+ ,323.5
+ ,323.2
+ ,317.4
+ ,330.1
+ ,329.2
+ ,334.9
+ ,315.8
+ ,315.4
+ ,319.6
+ ,317.3
+ ,313.8
+ ,315.8
+ ,311.3
+ ,311.3)
> par9 = '1'
> par8 = '2'
> par7 = '1'
> par6 = '3'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '0'
> par3 = '1'
> par2 = '1'
> par1 = 'FALSE'
> library(lattice)
> if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE
> if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial
> par6 <- 11
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial
> armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){
+ try1 <- arima.out$coef
+ try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef))
+ try.data.frame  <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names)))
+ dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv'))
+ try.data.frame[,1] <- try1
+ for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i]
+ try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2]
+ try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5)
+ vector <- rep(NA,length(names))
+ vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0
+ maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4])
+ continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05
+ vector[maxi] <- 0
+ list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue)
+ }
> arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){
+ nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3]
+ coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc)
+ pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc)
+ mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc)
+ names  <- NULL
+ if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='')
+ if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') )
+ if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep=''))
+ if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep=''))
+ arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML')
+ mylist[[1]] <- arima.out
+ last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series))
+ mystop <- FALSE
+ i <- 1
+ coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1]
+ pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4]
+ i <- 2
+ aic <- arima.out$aic
+ while(!mystop){
+ mylist[[i]] <- arima.out
+ arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector)
+ aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic)
+ last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series))
+ mystop <- !last.arma$continue
+ coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1]
+ pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4]
+ i <- i+1
+ }
+ list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic)
+ }
> arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){
+ noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef)
+ coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]]
+ k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1
+ coeff <- coeff[1:k,]
+ pval  <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,]
+ aic   <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k]
+ coeff[coeff==0] <- NA
+ n <- ncol(coeff)
+ if(missing(choix)) choix <- k
+ layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2,
+ 3,3,3,2,
+ 3,3,3,4,
+ 5,6,7,7),nr=4),
+ widths=c(10,35,45,15),
+ heights=c(30,30,15,15))
+ couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50)
+ ticks <- pretty(coeff)
+ par(mar=c(1,1,3,1))
+ plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA)
+ points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA)
+ title('aic',line=2)
+ par(mar=c(3,0,0,0))
+ plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1))
+ rect(xleft  = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)),
+ xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)),
+ ytop   = rep(1,50),
+ ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA)
+ axis(1,ticks)
+ rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0)
+ text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2)
+ par(mar=c(1,1,3,1))
+ image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks))
+ for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) {
+ if(pval[j,i]<.01)                            symb = 'green'
+ else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange'
+ else if( (pval[j,i]<.1)  & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red'
+ else                                         symb = 'black'
+ polygon(c(i+.5   ,i+.2   ,i+.5   ,i+.5),
+ c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5),
+ col=symb)
+ if(j==choix)  {
+ rect(xleft=i-.5,
+ xright=i+.5,
+ ybottom=k-j+1.5,
+ ytop=k-j+.5,
+ lwd=4)
+ text(i,
+ k-j+1,
+ round(coeff[j,i],2),
+ cex=1.2,
+ font=2)
+ }
+ else{
+ rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5)
+ text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1)
+ }
+ }
+ axis(3,1:n,noms)
+ par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5))
+ plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8))
+ cols <- c('green','orange','red','black')
+ niv  <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1')
+ for(i in 0:3){
+ polygon(c(1+2*i   ,1+2*i   ,1+2*i-.5   ,1+2*i),
+ c(.4      ,.7      , .4        , .4),
+ col=cols[i+1])
+ text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5)
+ }
+ text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5)
+ text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2)
+ box()
+ residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res
+ par(mar=c(1,2,4,1))
+ acf(residus,main='')
+ title('acf',line=.5)
+ par(mar=c(1,2,4,1))
+ pacf(residus,main='')
+ title('pacf',line=.5)
+ par(mar=c(2,2,4,1))
+ qqnorm(residus,main='')
+ title('qq-norm',line=.5)
+ qqline(residus)
+ residus
+ }
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5)))
Error in optim(init[mask], armafn, method = optim.method, hessian = TRUE,  : 
  non-finite finite-difference value [1]
Calls: arimaSelect -> arima -> optim
Execution halted