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*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Tue, 15 Dec 2009 09:06:53 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc.htm/, Retrieved Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:07:57 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
594 0 595 0 591 0 589 0 584 0 573 0 567 0 569 0 621 0 629 0 628 0 612 0 595 0 597 0 593 0 590 0 580 0 574 0 573 0 573 0 620 0 626 0 620 0 588 0 566 0 557 0 561 0 549 0 532 0 526 0 511 0 499 0 555 0 565 0 542 0 527 0 510 0 514 0 517 0 508 0 493 0 490 0 469 0 478 0 528 0 534 0 518 1 506 1 502 1 516 1 528 1 533 1 536 1 537 1 524 1 536 1 587 1 597 1 581 1 564 1 558 1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time4 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
WklBe[t] = + 568.346341463414 -22.3658536585366X[t] -6.72439024390259M1[t] -8.07317073170728M2[t] -5.87317073170727M3[t] -10.0731707317073M4[t] -18.8731707317073M5[t] -23.8731707317073M6[t] -35.0731707317073M7[t] -32.8731707317073M8[t] + 18.3268292682927M9[t] + 26.3268292682927M10[t] + 18.4000000000000M11[t] + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)568.34634146341418.21109331.208800
X-22.365853658536611.888041-1.88140.0659930.032997
M1-6.7243902439025923.815677-0.28240.7788880.389444
M2-8.0731707317072824.97432-0.32330.7479030.373952
M3-5.8731707317072724.97432-0.23520.8150780.407539
M4-10.073170731707324.97432-0.40330.6884880.344244
M5-18.873170731707324.97432-0.75570.453520.22676
M6-23.873170731707324.97432-0.95590.3439080.171954
M7-35.073170731707324.97432-1.40440.1666470.083323
M8-32.873170731707324.97432-1.31630.1943320.097166
M918.326829268292724.974320.73380.4666240.233312
M1026.326829268292724.974321.05420.2970890.148545
M1118.400000000000024.8608860.74010.4628330.231417


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.509122565271679
R-squared0.259205786468815
Adjusted R-squared0.0740072330860191
F-TEST (value)1.39961021149582
F-TEST (DF numerator)12
F-TEST (DF denominator)48
p-value0.199092966448552
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation39.3085117440034
Sum Squared Residuals74167.6365853658


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1594561.62195121951332.3780487804869
2595560.27317073170734.7268292682927
3591562.47317073170728.5268292682927
4589558.27317073170730.7268292682927
5584549.47317073170734.5268292682927
6573544.47317073170728.5268292682927
7567533.27317073170733.7268292682927
8569535.47317073170733.5268292682927
9621586.67317073170734.3268292682927
10629594.67317073170734.3268292682927
11628586.74634146341541.2536585365854
12612568.34634146341543.6536585365854
13595561.62195121951233.378048780488
14597560.27317073170736.7268292682927
15593562.47317073170730.5268292682927
16590558.27317073170731.7268292682927
17580549.47317073170730.5268292682927
18574544.47317073170729.5268292682927
19573533.27317073170739.7268292682927
20573535.47317073170737.5268292682927
21620586.67317073170733.3268292682927
22626594.67317073170731.3268292682927
23620586.74634146341533.2536585365854
24588568.34634146341519.6536585365854
25566561.6219512195124.378048780488
26557560.273170731707-3.27317073170733
27561562.473170731707-1.47317073170731
28549558.273170731707-9.27317073170733
29532549.473170731707-17.4731707317073
30526544.473170731707-18.4731707317073
31511533.273170731707-22.2731707317073
32499535.473170731707-36.4731707317073
33555586.673170731707-31.6731707317073
34565594.673170731707-29.6731707317073
35542586.746341463415-44.7463414634146
36527568.346341463415-41.3463414634146
37510561.621951219512-51.621951219512
38514560.273170731707-46.2731707317073
39517562.473170731707-45.4731707317073
40508558.273170731707-50.2731707317073
41493549.473170731707-56.4731707317073
42490544.473170731707-54.4731707317073
43469533.273170731707-64.2731707317073
44478535.473170731707-57.4731707317073
45528586.673170731707-58.6731707317073
46534594.673170731707-60.6731707317073
47518564.380487804878-46.3804878048781
48506545.980487804878-39.980487804878
49502539.256097560975-37.2560975609754
50516537.907317073171-21.9073170731708
51528540.107317073171-12.1073170731708
52533535.907317073171-2.90731707317078
53536527.1073170731718.89268292682924
54537522.10731707317114.8926829268292
55524510.90731707317113.0926829268293
56536513.10731707317122.8926829268292
57587564.30731707317122.6926829268292
58597572.30731707317124.6926829268292
59581564.38048780487816.6195121951219
60564545.98048780487818.0195121951220
61558539.25609756097518.7439024390246


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
165.97189506083504e-050.0001194379012167010.999940281049392
171.26098801767863e-052.52197603535725e-050.999987390119823
186.58380064075557e-071.31676012815111e-060.999999341619936
194.43923853722702e-078.87847707445403e-070.999999556076146
208.22659840659948e-081.64531968131990e-070.999999917734016
218.28178721129484e-091.65635744225897e-080.999999991718213
221.35694083684402e-092.71388167368803e-090.99999999864306
233.62917683675478e-097.25835367350955e-090.999999996370823
243.35977955664699e-066.71955911329397e-060.999996640220443
250.0002024716803838820.0004049433607677640.999797528319616
260.006016884414493870.01203376882898770.993983115585506
270.01961839956200300.03923679912400600.980381600437997
280.06978966883045880.1395793376609180.930210331169541
290.192503999630420.385007999260840.80749600036958
300.3047501174521730.6095002349043460.695249882547827
310.4902048625512150.980409725102430.509795137448785
320.6537249020229210.6925501959541570.346275097977079
330.721045782666510.5579084346669810.278954217333490
340.7510941428354860.4978117143290290.248905857164514
350.8282925646027250.3434148707945490.171707435397275
360.8593196507603680.2813606984792650.140680349239632
370.8702245773950540.2595508452098920.129775422604946
380.8918293570868930.2163412858262140.108170642913107
390.8953847344805290.2092305310389430.104615265519471
400.8807493669078590.2385012661842810.119250633092141
410.8423668226925940.3152663546148130.157633177307406
420.7806042670821160.4387914658357690.219395732917884
430.7035559626298080.5928880747403830.296444037370192
440.5848075273326780.8303849453346450.415192472667322
450.4382035828470410.8764071656940830.561796417152959


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level100.333333333333333NOK
5% type I error level120.4NOK
10% type I error level120.4NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/10pywa1260893208.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/10pywa1260893208.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/1yxt01260893208.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/1yxt01260893208.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/2nyjz1260893208.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/2nyjz1260893208.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/3ynkl1260893208.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/3ynkl1260893208.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/40tfg1260893208.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/40tfg1260893208.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/5q7hk1260893208.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/5q7hk1260893208.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/6jyce1260893208.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/6jyce1260893208.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/7j8mo1260893208.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/7j8mo1260893208.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/860tx1260893208.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/860tx1260893208.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/9h80c1260893208.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/15/t1260893264xm8nghwprz9kgcc/9h80c1260893208.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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