R version 2.9.0 (2009-04-17) Copyright (C) 2009 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing ISBN 3-900051-07-0 R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY. You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions. Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details. R is a collaborative project with many contributors. Type 'contributors()' for more information and 'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications. Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or 'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help. Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(2350.44,2440.25,2408.64,2472.81,2407.6,2454.62,2448.05,2497.84,2645.64,2756.76,2849.27,2921.44,2981.85,3080.58,3106.22,3119.31,3061.26,3097.31,3161.69,3257.16,3277.01,3295.32,3363.99,3494.17,3667.03,3813.06,3917.96,3895.51,3801.06,3570.12,3701.61,3862.27,3970.1,4138.52,4199.75,4290.89,4443.91,4502.64,4356.98,4591.27,4696.96,4621.4,4562.84,4202.52,4296.49,4435.23,4105.18,4116.68,3844.49,3720.98,3674.4,3857.62,3801.06,3504.37,3032.6,3047.03,2962.34,2197.82,2014.45,1862.83,1905.41,1810.99,1670.07,1864.44,2052.02,2029.6,2070.83,2293.41,2443.27,2513.17) > par9 = '1' > par8 = '2' > par7 = '1' > par6 = '3' > par5 = '12' > par4 = '0' > par3 = '1' > par2 = '1' > par1 = 'FALSE' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education > #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!) > library(lattice) > if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE > if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial > par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial > armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){ + try1 <- arima.out$coef + try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef)) + try.data.frame <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names))) + dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv')) + try.data.frame[,1] <- try1 + for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i] + try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2] + try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5) + vector <- rep(NA,length(names)) + vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0 + maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4]) + continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05 + vector[maxi] <- 0 + list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue) + } > arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){ + nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3] + coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc) + names <- NULL + if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='') + if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') ) + if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep='')) + if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep='')) + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML') + mylist[[1]] <- arima.out + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- FALSE + i <- 1 + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- 2 + aic <- arima.out$aic + while(!mystop){ + mylist[[i]] <- arima.out + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector) + aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic) + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- !last.arma$continue + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- i+1 + } + list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic) + } > arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){ + noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef) + coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]] + k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1 + coeff <- coeff[1:k,] + pval <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,] + aic <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k] + coeff[coeff==0] <- NA + n <- ncol(coeff) + if(missing(choix)) choix <- k + layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2, + 3,3,3,2, + 3,3,3,4, + 5,6,7,7),nr=4), + widths=c(10,35,45,15), + heights=c(30,30,15,15)) + couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50) + ticks <- pretty(coeff) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA) + points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA) + title('aic',line=2) + par(mar=c(3,0,0,0)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1)) + rect(xleft = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + ytop = rep(1,50), + ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA) + axis(1,ticks) + rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0) + text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks)) + for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) { + if(pval[j,i]<.01) symb = 'green' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.1) & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red' + else symb = 'black' + polygon(c(i+.5 ,i+.2 ,i+.5 ,i+.5), + c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5), + col=symb) + if(j==choix) { + rect(xleft=i-.5, + xright=i+.5, + ybottom=k-j+1.5, + ytop=k-j+.5, + lwd=4) + text(i, + k-j+1, + round(coeff[j,i],2), + cex=1.2, + font=2) + } + else{ + rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5) + text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1) + } + } + axis(3,1:n,noms) + par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8)) + cols <- c('green','orange','red','black') + niv <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1') + for(i in 0:3){ + polygon(c(1+2*i ,1+2*i ,1+2*i-.5 ,1+2*i), + c(.4 ,.7 , .4 , .4), + col=cols[i+1]) + text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5) + } + text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5) + text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2) + box() + residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + acf(residus,main='') + title('acf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + pacf(residus,main='') + title('pacf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(2,2,4,1)) + qqnorm(residus,main='') + title('qq-norm',line=.5) + qqline(residus) + residus + } > if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) > if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 > (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5))) [[1]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [1,] 0.7228026 -0.2001889 0.2419618 -0.4617193 -0.37311624 -0.1350361 [2,] 0.7234376 -0.2033336 0.2435959 -0.4639531 -0.04291731 -0.1289993 [3,] 0.7213305 -0.1948831 0.2386468 -0.4672997 0.00000000 -0.1265410 [4,] 0.7057757 -0.1700305 0.2271196 -0.4519949 0.00000000 0.0000000 [5,] 0.5140197 0.0000000 0.1806255 -0.3081177 0.00000000 0.0000000 [6,] 0.2745853 0.0000000 0.2070759 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 [7,] 0.2952613 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [13,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [14,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [,7] [1,] 0.3379781 [2,] 0.0000000 [3,] 0.0000000 [4,] 0.0000000 [5,] 0.0000000 [6,] 0.0000000 [7,] 0.0000000 [8,] NA [9,] NA [10,] NA [11,] NA [12,] NA [13,] NA [14,] NA [[2]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [,7] [1,] 0.00744 0.22596 0.05368 0.07336 0.89491 0.37119 0.90689 [2,] 0.00717 0.20604 0.04830 0.07105 0.72798 0.40252 NA [3,] 0.00720 0.21890 0.05217 0.06764 NA 0.41221 NA [4,] 0.01135 0.27713 0.06675 0.09073 NA NA NA [5,] 0.10570 NA 0.14581 0.43582 NA NA NA [6,] 0.01644 NA 0.06975 NA NA NA NA [7,] 0.01193 NA NA NA NA NA NA [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [13,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [14,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [[3]] [[3]][[1]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.7228 -0.2002 0.242 -0.4617 -0.3731 -0.1350 0.3380 s.e. 0.2612 0.1637 0.123 0.2535 2.8131 0.1499 2.8777 sigma^2 estimated as 24105: log likelihood = -446.41, aic = 908.81 [[3]][[2]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.7228 -0.2002 0.242 -0.4617 -0.3731 -0.1350 0.3380 s.e. 0.2612 0.1637 0.123 0.2535 2.8131 0.1499 2.8777 sigma^2 estimated as 24105: log likelihood = -446.41, aic = 908.81 [[3]][[3]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.7234 -0.2033 0.2436 -0.4640 -0.0429 -0.1290 0 s.e. 0.2603 0.1591 0.1210 0.2527 0.1228 0.1531 0 sigma^2 estimated as 24124: log likelihood = -446.41, aic = 906.83 [[3]][[4]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.7213 -0.1949 0.2386 -0.4673 0 -0.1265 0 s.e. 0.2598 0.1570 0.1206 0.2514 0 0.1533 0 sigma^2 estimated as 24177: log likelihood = -446.48, aic = 904.95 [[3]][[5]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.7058 -0.1700 0.2271 -0.4520 0 0 0 s.e. 0.2708 0.1551 0.1218 0.2632 0 0 0 sigma^2 estimated as 24550: log likelihood = -446.81, aic = 903.62 [[3]][[6]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.5140 0 0.1806 -0.3081 0 0 0 s.e. 0.3134 0 0.1227 0.3930 0 0 0 sigma^2 estimated as 25012: log likelihood = -447.43, aic = 902.87 [[3]][[7]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.2746 0 0.2071 0 0 0 0 s.e. 0.1116 0 0.1124 0 0 0 0 sigma^2 estimated as 25180: log likelihood = -447.64, aic = 901.28 $aic [1] 908.8132 906.8294 904.9515 903.6212 902.8673 901.2829 902.5805 Warning messages: 1: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 2: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 3: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 4: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 5: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1dqni1260910798.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > resid <- arimaSelectplot(selection) > dev.off() null device 1 > resid Time Series: Start = 1 End = 70 Frequency = 1 [1] 2.350439 83.528132 -57.621958 66.430825 -101.427619 71.471373 [7] -32.769057 65.097442 124.391693 71.896787 51.687779 16.162306 [13] 17.582913 62.985717 -16.414467 -6.459819 -82.088920 46.680250 [19] 51.770578 89.812954 -13.829740 -0.472061 43.872812 107.213774 [25] 133.322932 84.345293 37.845179 -87.049126 -118.524848 -226.727679 [31] 199.551573 144.113098 111.537230 111.583067 -18.284457 51.998155 [37] 93.118584 4.033709 -180.659286 242.599342 29.195854 -74.418247 [43] -86.328140 -366.126134 208.555213 125.063585 -293.532387 82.667948 [49] -304.077435 19.574748 -15.047347 252.374158 -81.293573 -271.513864 [55] -428.243737 155.683299 -27.214930 -643.573198 23.567820 -83.732046 [61] 242.526250 -68.140341 -83.596818 224.247265 153.760965 -44.745574 [67] 7.136868 172.415561 93.385453 20.212915 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2b9ew1260910798.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > acf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3704z1260910798.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > pacf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4peti1260910798.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > cpgram(resid, main='Residual Cumulative Periodogram') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/5y9lf1260910798.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > hist(resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/6dwgs1260910798.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > densityplot(~resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/7tp5c1260910798.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > qqnorm(resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot') > qqline(resid) > dev.off() null device 1 > ncols <- length(selection[[1]][1,]) > nrows <- length(selection[[2]][,1])-1 > > #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection', ncols+1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Iteration', header=TRUE) > for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,names(selection[[3]][[1]]$coef)[i],header=TRUE) + } > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (j in 1:nrows) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + mydum <- 'Estimates (' + mydum <- paste(mydum,j) + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum, header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,round(selection[[1]][j,i],4)) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'(p-val)', header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + mydum <- '(' + mydum <- paste(mydum,round(selection[[2]][j,i],4),sep='') + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/8l6uw1260910798.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated ARIMA Residuals', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Value', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in (par4*par5+par3):length(resid)) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,resid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/9krps1260910798.tab") > > try(system("convert tmp/1dqni1260910798.ps tmp/1dqni1260910798.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/2b9ew1260910798.ps tmp/2b9ew1260910798.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/3704z1260910798.ps tmp/3704z1260910798.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/4peti1260910798.ps tmp/4peti1260910798.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/5y9lf1260910798.ps tmp/5y9lf1260910798.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/6dwgs1260910798.ps tmp/6dwgs1260910798.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/7tp5c1260910798.ps tmp/7tp5c1260910798.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 5.578 1.804 15.522