R version 2.9.0 (2009-04-17)
Copyright (C) 2009 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

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> x <- c(128.7,136.9,156.9,109.1,122.3,123.9,90.9,77.9,120.3,118.9,125.5,98.9,102.9,105.9,117.6,113.6,115.9,118.9,77.6,81.2,123.1,136.6,112.1,95.1,96.3,105.7,115.8,105.7,105.7,111.1,82.4,60,107.3,99.3,113.5,108.9,100.2,103.9,138.7,120.2,100.2,143.2,70.9,85.2,133,136.6,117.9,106.3,122.3,125.5,148.4,126.3,99.6,140.4,80.3,92.6,138.5,110.9,119.6,105,109,129.4,148.6,101.4,134.8,143.7,81.6,90.3,141.5,140.7,140.2,100.2,125.7,119.6,134.7,109,116.3,146.9,97.4,89.4,132.1,139.8,129,112.5,121.9,121.7,123.1,131.6,119.3,132.5,98.3,85.1,131.7,129.3,90.7,78.6,68.9,79.1,83.5,74.1,59.7,93.3,61.3,56.6,98.5)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '0'
> par8 = '0'
> par7 = '1'
> par6 = '0'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '1'
> par3 = '1'
> par2 = '1'
> par1 = '12'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: Wessa P., (2009), ARIMA Forecasting (v1.0.5) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_arimaforecasting.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: 
> #Technical description: 
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")

Coefficients:
          ma1
      -0.7978
s.e.   0.0860

sigma^2 estimated as 224.6:  log likelihood = -330.6,  aic = 665.2
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,par1))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 94 
End = 105 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 138.79261 127.99261 111.49261 120.89261 120.69261 122.09261 130.59261
 [8] 118.29261 131.49261  97.29261  84.09261 130.69261

$se
Time Series:
Start = 94 
End = 105 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 14.98809 15.29127 15.58856 15.88029 16.16675 16.44823 16.72497 16.99720
 [9] 17.26514 17.52899 17.78892 18.04511

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 94 
End = 105 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 109.41596  98.02172  80.93903  89.76724  89.00577  89.85408  97.81167
 [8]  84.97810  97.65293  62.93579  49.22632  95.32419
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 94 
End = 105 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 168.1693 157.9635 142.0462 152.0180 152.3794 154.3311 163.3735 151.6071
 [9] 165.3323 131.6494 118.9589 166.0610
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> if (par2 < 0) {
+ olb <- lb
+ lb <- ub
+ ub <- olb
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
  [1] 128.70000 136.90000 156.90000 109.10000 122.30000 123.90000  90.90000
  [8]  77.90000 120.30000 118.90000 125.50000  98.90000 102.90000 105.90000
 [15] 117.60000 113.60000 115.90000 118.90000  77.60000  81.20000 123.10000
 [22] 136.60000 112.10000  95.10000  96.30000 105.70000 115.80000 105.70000
 [29] 105.70000 111.10000  82.40000  60.00000 107.30000  99.30000 113.50000
 [36] 108.90000 100.20000 103.90000 138.70000 120.20000 100.20000 143.20000
 [43]  70.90000  85.20000 133.00000 136.60000 117.90000 106.30000 122.30000
 [50] 125.50000 148.40000 126.30000  99.60000 140.40000  80.30000  92.60000
 [57] 138.50000 110.90000 119.60000 105.00000 109.00000 129.40000 148.60000
 [64] 101.40000 134.80000 143.70000  81.60000  90.30000 141.50000 140.70000
 [71] 140.20000 100.20000 125.70000 119.60000 134.70000 109.00000 116.30000
 [78] 146.90000  97.40000  89.40000 132.10000 139.80000 129.00000 112.50000
 [85] 121.90000 121.70000 123.10000 131.60000 119.30000 132.50000  98.30000
 [92]  85.10000 131.70000 138.79261 127.99261 111.49261 120.89261 120.69261
 [99] 122.09261 130.59261 118.29261 131.49261  97.29261  84.09261 130.69261
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 94 
End = 105 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.1079891 0.1194700 0.1398170 0.1313587 0.1339498 0.1347193 0.1280698
 [8] 0.1436878 0.1313012 0.1801677 0.2115397 0.1380729
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/10axl1261328713.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
> lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
> lines(x, lwd=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
> box()
> par(opar)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape1 <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse1 <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
+ perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]
+ perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
+ prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ }
> perf.mape[1] = abs(perf.pe[1])
> perf.mse[1] = abs(perf.se[1])
> for (i in 2:fx) {
+ perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i-1] + abs(perf.pe[i])
+ perf.mape1[i] = perf.mape[i] / i
+ perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i-1] + perf.se[i]
+ perf.mse1[i] = perf.mse[i] / i
+ }
> perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse1)
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2rl151261328713.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
> dum <- forecast$pred
> dum[1:par1] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
> lines(dum, lty=1)
> lines(ub,lty=3)
> lines(lb,lty=3)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> 
> #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab
> load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable")
> 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
> mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
> mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
> a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i])
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3y35e1261328714.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape1[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse1[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4vc0p1261328714.tab") 
> 
> try(system("convert tmp/10axl1261328713.ps tmp/10axl1261328713.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> try(system("convert tmp/2rl151261328713.ps tmp/2rl151261328713.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  0.584   0.333   0.700