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Workshop 7: Multiple regression 1

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Fri, 25 Dec 2009 08:14:42 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/25/t12617541962etgjknzyktsw4e.htm/, Retrieved Fri, 25 Dec 2009 16:16:48 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/25/t12617541962etgjknzyktsw4e.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
No seasonal dummies No lineair Trend
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
25.6 8.1 23.7 7.7 22 7.5 21.3 7.6 20.7 7.8 20.4 7.8 20.3 7.8 20.4 7.5 19.8 7.5 19.5 7.1 23.1 7.5 23.5 7.5 23.5 7.6 22.9 7.7 21.9 7.7 21.5 7.9 20.5 8.1 20.2 8.2 19.4 8.2 19.2 8.2 18.8 7.9 18.8 7.3 22.6 6.9 23.3 6.6 23 6.7 21.4 6.9 19.9 7 18.8 7.1 18.6 7.2 18.4 7.1 18.6 6.9 19.9 7 19.2 6.8 18.4 6.4 21.1 6.7 20.5 6.6 19.1 6.4 18.1 6.3 17 6.2 17.1 6.5 17.4 6.8 16.8 6.8 15.3 6.4 14.3 6.1 13.4 5.8 15.3 6.1 22.1 7.2 23.7 7.3 22.2 6.9 19.5 6.1 16.6 5.8 17.3 6.2 19.8 7.1 21.2 7.7 21.5 7.9 20.6 7.7 19.1 7.4 19.6 7.5 23.5 8 24 8.1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time56 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = + 3.04790639755097 + 2.37529185907747X[t] + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)3.047906397550972.8581611.06640.2906680.145334
X2.375291859077470.3967955.986200


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.617973267289145
R-squared0.381890959084021
Adjusted R-squared0.371233906654436
F-TEST (value)35.8345763622055
F-TEST (DF numerator)1
F-TEST (DF denominator)58
p-value1.43626900372951e-07
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation2.01145292020237
Sum Squared Residuals234.664685311058


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
125.622.28777045607833.31222954392165
223.721.33765371244752.36234628755254
32220.86259534063201.13740465936803
421.321.10012452653970.19987547346028
520.721.5751828983552-0.875182898355215
620.421.5751828983552-1.17518289835522
720.321.5751828983552-1.27518289835521
820.420.8625953406320-0.462595340631976
919.820.8625953406320-1.06259534063197
1019.519.912478597001-0.412478597000987
1123.120.86259534063202.23740465936803
1223.520.86259534063202.63740465936803
1323.521.10012452653972.39987547346028
1422.921.33765371244751.56234628755253
1521.921.33765371244750.56234628755253
1621.521.8127120842630-0.312712084262963
1720.522.2877704560785-1.78777045607845
1820.222.5252996419862-2.3252996419862
1919.422.5252996419862-3.1252996419862
2019.222.5252996419862-3.3252996419862
2118.821.8127120842630-3.01271208426296
2218.820.3875369688165-1.58753696881648
2322.619.43742022518553.16257977481451
2423.318.72483266746234.57516733253775
252318.962361853374.03763814663
2621.419.43742022518551.96257977481450
2719.919.67494941109320.225050588906757
2818.819.912478597001-1.11247859700099
2918.620.1500077829087-1.55000778290873
3018.419.912478597001-1.51247859700099
3118.619.4374202251855-0.837420225185494
3219.919.67494941109320.225050588906757
3319.219.19989103927770.000108960722252083
3418.418.24977429564680.150225704353237
3521.118.962361853372.13763814663
3620.518.72483266746231.77516733253775
3719.118.24977429564680.85022570435324
3818.118.0122451097390.087754890260988
391717.7747159238313-0.774715923831268
4017.118.4873034815545-1.38730348155451
4117.419.1998910392777-1.79989103927775
4216.819.1998910392777-2.39989103927775
4315.318.2497742956468-2.94977429564676
4414.317.5371867379235-3.23718673792352
4513.416.8245991802003-3.42459918020028
4615.317.5371867379235-2.23718673792352
4722.120.15000778290871.94999221709127
4823.720.38753696881653.31246303118352
4922.219.43742022518552.76257977481450
5019.517.53718673792351.96281326207648
5116.616.8245991802003-0.224599180200279
5217.317.7747159238313-0.474715923831267
5319.819.912478597001-0.112478597000986
5421.221.3376537124475-0.137653712447470
5521.521.8127120842630-0.312712084262963
5620.621.3376537124475-0.737653712447468
5719.120.6250661547242-1.52506615472423
5819.620.8625953406320-1.26259534063197
5923.522.05024127017071.44975872982929
602422.28777045607851.71222954392155


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
50.4441405837165650.888281167433130.555859416283435
60.5054450923149430.9891098153701140.494554907685057
70.5012809258390520.9974381483218970.498719074160948
80.3692758844680750.7385517689361510.630724115531925
90.2717998232595790.5435996465191580.728200176740421
100.1973001371846280.3946002743692560.802699862815372
110.2335960254017820.4671920508035640.766403974598218
120.2861757041819740.5723514083639480.713824295818026
130.2877623078301120.5755246156602250.712237692169888
140.2304101671784670.4608203343569330.769589832821533
150.1675633705731070.3351267411462130.832436629426893
160.1353356053417680.2706712106835360.864664394658232
170.1611916531018760.3223833062037520.838808346898124
180.1776164293912250.355232858782450.822383570608775
190.2217550617369830.4435101234739660.778244938263017
200.2715426224333190.5430852448666370.728457377566681
210.3539030420206650.707806084041330.646096957979335
220.4046391923349110.8092783846698230.595360807665089
230.4056796021104450.811359204220890.594320397889555
240.5327819936949140.9344360126101720.467218006305086
250.6454536657182170.7090926685635650.354546334281783
260.6317339399199190.7365321201601610.368266060080081
270.612982622168410.7740347556631790.387017377831589
280.6487743295159140.7024513409681710.351225670484086
290.6902323843840120.6195352312319770.309767615615988
300.7251831417712820.5496337164574370.274816858228718
310.7176107880331180.5647784239337630.282389211966882
320.6592936515529350.681412696894130.340706348447065
330.6093973674719960.7812052650560090.390602632528004
340.5758814820413390.8482370359173220.424118517958661
350.5848818752006790.8302362495986420.415118124799321
360.5846159728244760.8307680543510470.415384027175524
370.5616958373136980.8766083253726040.438304162686302
380.5324475066690880.9351049866618250.467552493330912
390.5091920088445660.9816159823108680.490807991155434
400.4802350321882010.9604700643764020.519764967811799
410.4664089296349580.9328178592699160.533591070365042
420.5014955737203180.9970088525593640.498504426279682
430.5784649510121310.8430700979757380.421535048987869
440.6729517479639940.6540965040720110.327048252036006
450.7957931451437170.4084137097125670.204206854856283
460.8467663130908410.3064673738183180.153233686909159
470.825077293796950.3498454124060990.174922706203049
480.9173892510357640.1652214979284720.082610748964236
490.962549771489840.07490045702032010.0374502285101600
500.9836838909807840.03263221803843160.0163161090192158
510.9729640670473180.05407186590536390.0270359329526820
520.9765448704570030.0469102590859940.023455129542997
530.9978712464076350.004257507184729970.00212875359236498
540.9914036802076850.01719263958462940.0085963197923147
550.9943834357750550.01123312844988990.00561656422494494


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level10.0196078431372549NOK
5% type I error level50.0980392156862745NOK
10% type I error level70.137254901960784NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/25/t12617541962etgjknzyktsw4e/9588s1261754025.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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