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Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(13139.7,14532.2,15167,16071.1,14827.5,15082,14772.7,16083,14272.5,15223.3,14897.3,13062.6,12603.8,13629.8,14421.1,13978.3,12927.9,13429.9,13470.1,14785.8,14292,14308.8,14013,13240.9,12153.4,14289.7,15669.2,14169.5,14569.8,14469.1,14264.9,15320.9,14433.5,13691.5,14194.1,13519.2,11857.9,14616,15643.4,14077.2,14887.5,14159.9,14643,17192.5,15386.1,14287.1,17526.6,14497,14398.3,16629.6,16670.7,16614.8,16869.2,15663.9,16359.9,18447.7,16889,16505,18320.9,15052.1,15699.8,18135.3,16768.7,18883,19021,18101.9,17776.1,21489.9,17065.3,18690,18953.1,16398.9,16895.7,18553,19270,19422.1,17579.4,18637.3,18076.7,20438.6,18075.2,19563,19899.2,19227.5,17789.6,19220.8,21968.9,21131.5,19484.6,22404.1,21099,22486.5,23707.5,21897.5,23326.4,23765.4,20444) > par9 = '1' > par8 = '2' > par7 = '0' > par6 = '3' > par5 = '1' > par4 = '1' > par3 = '1' > par2 = '-0.6' > par1 = 'FALSE' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education > #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!) > library(lattice) > if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE > if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial > par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial > armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){ + try1 <- arima.out$coef + try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef)) + try.data.frame <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names))) + dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv')) + try.data.frame[,1] <- try1 + for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i] + try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2] + try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5) + vector <- rep(NA,length(names)) + vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0 + maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4]) + continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05 + vector[maxi] <- 0 + list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue) + } > arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){ + nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3] + coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc) + names <- NULL + if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='') + if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') ) + if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep='')) + if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep='')) + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML') + mylist[[1]] <- arima.out + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- FALSE + i <- 1 + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- 2 + aic <- arima.out$aic + while(!mystop){ + mylist[[i]] <- arima.out + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector) + aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic) + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- !last.arma$continue + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- i+1 + } + list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic) + } > arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){ + noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef) + coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]] + k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1 + coeff <- coeff[1:k,] + pval <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,] + aic <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k] + coeff[coeff==0] <- NA + n <- ncol(coeff) + if(missing(choix)) choix <- k + layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2, + 3,3,3,2, + 3,3,3,4, + 5,6,7,7),nr=4), + widths=c(10,35,45,15), + heights=c(30,30,15,15)) + couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50) + ticks <- pretty(coeff) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA) + points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA) + title('aic',line=2) + par(mar=c(3,0,0,0)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1)) + rect(xleft = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + ytop = rep(1,50), + ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA) + axis(1,ticks) + rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0) + text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks)) + for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) { + if(pval[j,i]<.01) symb = 'green' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.1) & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red' + else symb = 'black' + polygon(c(i+.5 ,i+.2 ,i+.5 ,i+.5), + c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5), + col=symb) + if(j==choix) { + rect(xleft=i-.5, + xright=i+.5, + ybottom=k-j+1.5, + ytop=k-j+.5, + lwd=4) + text(i, + k-j+1, + round(coeff[j,i],2), + cex=1.2, + font=2) + } + else{ + rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5) + text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1) + } + } + axis(3,1:n,noms) + par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8)) + cols <- c('green','orange','red','black') + niv <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1') + for(i in 0:3){ + polygon(c(1+2*i ,1+2*i ,1+2*i-.5 ,1+2*i), + c(.4 ,.7 , .4 , .4), + col=cols[i+1]) + text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5) + } + text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5) + text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2) + box() + residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + acf(residus,main='') + title('acf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + pacf(residus,main='') + title('pacf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(2,2,4,1)) + qqnorm(residus,main='') + title('qq-norm',line=.5) + qqline(residus) + residus + } > if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) > if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 > (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5))) [[1]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [1,] 0.1803428 -0.1081594 -0.3723181 -0.8010470 -0.6944599 -0.9766671 [2,] 0.1447841 0.0000000 -0.4046828 -0.7725747 -0.7144370 -0.9810875 [3,] 0.0000000 0.0000000 -0.3950062 -0.7142151 -0.6795740 -0.9746588 [4,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [5,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [6,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [[2]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [1,] 0.14286 0.3961 0.00232 0 0 0 [2,] 0.18631 NA 0.00030 0 0 0 [3,] NA NA 0.00118 0 0 0 [4,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [5,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [6,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [[3]] [[3]][[1]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.1803 -0.1082 -0.3723 -0.8010 -0.6945 -0.9767 s.e. 0.1220 0.1268 0.1188 0.0946 0.0905 0.0423 sigma^2 estimated as 1.622e-08: log likelihood = 713.93, aic = -1413.86 [[3]][[2]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.1803 -0.1082 -0.3723 -0.8010 -0.6945 -0.9767 s.e. 0.1220 0.1268 0.1188 0.0946 0.0905 0.0423 sigma^2 estimated as 1.622e-08: log likelihood = 713.93, aic = -1413.86 [[3]][[3]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.1448 0 -0.4047 -0.7726 -0.7144 -0.9811 s.e. 0.1087 0 0.1077 0.0840 0.0817 0.0464 sigma^2 estimated as 1.634e-08: log likelihood = 713.54, aic = -1415.08 [[3]][[4]] NULL [[3]][[5]] NULL [[3]][[6]] NULL $aic [1] -1413.863 -1415.077 -1415.414 Warning messages: 1: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 2: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/18e8i1261918583.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > resid <- arimaSelectplot(selection) > dev.off() null device 1 > resid Time Series: Start = 1 End = 97 Frequency = 1 [1] 1.511345e-06 -4.977175e-06 5.555782e-05 2.191602e-05 2.225614e-04 [6] 9.022991e-05 1.153829e-04 -5.818423e-05 2.387977e-04 2.091852e-05 [11] 9.708740e-05 2.567215e-04 2.325303e-04 4.769749e-05 -1.406652e-04 [16] -1.158627e-05 1.515491e-04 -3.653792e-05 -5.157148e-05 -2.185523e-04 [21] -2.092935e-05 -6.082844e-05 -7.465013e-06 8.949113e-05 2.245083e-04 [26] -1.393943e-04 -2.385935e-04 -2.112438e-05 -5.289775e-05 -1.104612e-05 [31] -8.856141e-05 -1.129910e-04 9.218137e-05 9.151459e-05 3.315052e-05 [36] 1.108094e-04 3.089951e-04 -1.666367e-04 -2.010755e-04 -4.774467e-05 [41] -7.498612e-05 5.635478e-05 -1.713765e-04 -2.747827e-04 4.148786e-05 [46] 7.897918e-05 -2.340874e-04 1.589493e-04 3.548646e-05 -5.080129e-05 [51] -1.233179e-04 -1.374955e-04 1.596540e-05 5.633392e-05 -7.094872e-05 [56] -1.642650e-04 2.882562e-05 4.186460e-05 -9.075551e-05 2.386646e-04 [61] 4.823281e-05 -7.374939e-05 6.778771e-06 -2.172879e-04 -3.457771e-05 [66] -8.417056e-05 8.468207e-06 -2.370939e-04 1.940224e-04 -4.453185e-05 [71] 7.436128e-05 1.907922e-04 9.198212e-05 2.878037e-05 -1.517290e-04 [76] -7.066715e-05 1.496201e-04 -6.521662e-05 4.098212e-05 -1.767326e-04 [81] 1.470387e-04 -7.063576e-05 -3.813206e-05 -4.150142e-06 1.357235e-04 [86] 1.534545e-05 -2.188290e-04 -7.552961e-05 8.261830e-05 -1.398424e-04 [91] -2.462841e-05 -1.431898e-04 -5.896891e-05 3.930163e-05 -9.698863e-05 [96] -8.370837e-06 1.682972e-04 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2njuh1261918583.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > acf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3slo71261918583.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > pacf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4p0lh1261918583.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > cpgram(resid, main='Residual Cumulative Periodogram') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/5nihs1261918583.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > hist(resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/6c2q21261918583.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > densityplot(~resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/7h6gj1261918583.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > qqnorm(resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot') > qqline(resid) > dev.off() null device 1 > ncols <- length(selection[[1]][1,]) > nrows <- length(selection[[2]][,1])-1 > > #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection', ncols+1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Iteration', header=TRUE) > for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,names(selection[[3]][[1]]$coef)[i],header=TRUE) + } > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (j in 1:nrows) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + mydum <- 'Estimates (' + mydum <- paste(mydum,j) + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum, header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,round(selection[[1]][j,i],4)) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'(p-val)', header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + mydum <- '(' + mydum <- paste(mydum,round(selection[[2]][j,i],4),sep='') + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/8v6fx1261918583.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated ARIMA Residuals', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Value', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in (par4*par5+par3):length(resid)) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,resid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/9y7du1261918583.tab") > > try(system("convert tmp/18e8i1261918583.ps tmp/18e8i1261918583.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/2njuh1261918583.ps tmp/2njuh1261918583.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/3slo71261918583.ps tmp/3slo71261918583.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/4p0lh1261918583.ps tmp/4p0lh1261918583.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/5nihs1261918583.ps tmp/5nihs1261918583.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/6c2q21261918583.ps tmp/6c2q21261918583.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/7h6gj1261918583.ps tmp/7h6gj1261918583.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 1.761 1.048 2.596