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Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(3032.93,3045.78,3110.52,3013.24,2987.1,2995.55,2833.18,2848.96,2794.83,2845.26,2915.02,2892.63,2604.42,2641.65,2659.81,2638.53,2720.25,2745.88,2735.7,2811.7,2799.43,2555.28,2304.98,2214.95,2065.81,1940.49,2042,1995.37,1946.81,1765.9,1635.25,1833.42,1910.43,1959.67,1969.6,2061.41,2093.48,2120.88,2174.56,2196.72,2350.44,2440.25,2408.64,2472.81,2407.6,2454.62,2448.05,2497.84,2645.64,2756.76,2849.27,2921.44,2981.85,3080.58,3106.22,3119.31,3061.26,3097.31,3161.69,3257.16,3277.01,3295.32,3363.99,3494.17,3667.03,3813.06,3917.96,3895.51,3801.06,3570.12,3701.61,3862.27,3970.1,4138.52,4199.75,4290.89,4443.91,4502.64,4356.98,4591.27,4696.96,4621.4,4562.84,4202.52,4296.49,4435.23,4105.18,4116.68,3844.49,3720.98,3674.4,3857.62,3801.06,3504.37,3032.6,3047.03,2962.34,2197.82,2014.45,1862.83,1905.41,1810.99,1670.07,1864.44,2052.02,2029.60,2070.83,2293.41,2443.27,2513.17,2466.92) > par9 = '1' > par8 = '2' > par7 = '1' > par6 = '3' > par5 = '12' > par4 = '0' > par3 = '1' > par2 = '1' > par1 = 'FALSE' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education > #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!) > library(lattice) > if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE > if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial > par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial > armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){ + try1 <- arima.out$coef + try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef)) + try.data.frame <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names))) + dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv')) + try.data.frame[,1] <- try1 + for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i] + try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2] + try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5) + vector <- rep(NA,length(names)) + vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0 + maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4]) + continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05 + vector[maxi] <- 0 + list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue) + } > arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){ + nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3] + coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc) + names <- NULL + if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='') + if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') ) + if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep='')) + if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep='')) + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML') + mylist[[1]] <- arima.out + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- FALSE + i <- 1 + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- 2 + aic <- arima.out$aic + while(!mystop){ + mylist[[i]] <- arima.out + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector) + aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic) + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- !last.arma$continue + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- i+1 + } + list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic) + } > arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){ + noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef) + coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]] + k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1 + coeff <- coeff[1:k,] + pval <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,] + aic <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k] + coeff[coeff==0] <- NA + n <- ncol(coeff) + if(missing(choix)) choix <- k + layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2, + 3,3,3,2, + 3,3,3,4, + 5,6,7,7),nr=4), + widths=c(10,35,45,15), + heights=c(30,30,15,15)) + couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50) + ticks <- pretty(coeff) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA) + points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA) + title('aic',line=2) + par(mar=c(3,0,0,0)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1)) + rect(xleft = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + ytop = rep(1,50), + ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA) + axis(1,ticks) + rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0) + text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks)) + for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) { + if(pval[j,i]<.01) symb = 'green' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.1) & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red' + else symb = 'black' + polygon(c(i+.5 ,i+.2 ,i+.5 ,i+.5), + c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5), + col=symb) + if(j==choix) { + rect(xleft=i-.5, + xright=i+.5, + ybottom=k-j+1.5, + ytop=k-j+.5, + lwd=4) + text(i, + k-j+1, + round(coeff[j,i],2), + cex=1.2, + font=2) + } + else{ + rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5) + text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1) + } + } + axis(3,1:n,noms) + par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8)) + cols <- c('green','orange','red','black') + niv <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1') + for(i in 0:3){ + polygon(c(1+2*i ,1+2*i ,1+2*i-.5 ,1+2*i), + c(.4 ,.7 , .4 , .4), + col=cols[i+1]) + text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5) + } + text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5) + text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2) + box() + residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + acf(residus,main='') + title('acf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + pacf(residus,main='') + title('pacf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(2,2,4,1)) + qqnorm(residus,main='') + title('qq-norm',line=.5) + qqline(residus) + residus + } > if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) > if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 > (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5))) [[1]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [1,] 0.7246081 -0.1948640 0.2114197 -0.45877130 0.3214358 -0.02577902 [2,] 0.7247470 -0.1939378 0.2117901 -0.45698069 0.4258979 0.00000000 [3,] 0.7264488 -0.1920811 0.2100966 -0.45708751 0.0000000 0.00000000 [4,] 0.7264562 -0.1877795 0.2053542 -0.45884107 0.0000000 0.00000000 [5,] 0.2937177 0.0000000 0.1810642 -0.02073014 0.0000000 0.00000000 [6,] 0.2766065 0.0000000 0.1820066 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.00000000 [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [13,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [14,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [,7] [1,] -0.35157868 [2,] -0.46145532 [3,] -0.02961467 [4,] 0.00000000 [5,] 0.00000000 [6,] 0.00000000 [7,] NA [8,] NA [9,] NA [10,] NA [11,] NA [12,] NA [13,] NA [14,] NA [[2]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [,7] [1,] 0.00784 0.14313 0.03401 0.08698 0.79233 0.84519 0.77353 [2,] 0.00764 0.14534 0.03398 0.08717 0.72588 NA 0.70153 [3,] 0.00754 0.14969 0.03556 0.08745 NA NA 0.77141 [4,] 0.00804 0.15718 0.03769 0.08855 NA NA NA [5,] 0.49164 NA 0.05241 0.96744 NA NA NA [6,] 0.00244 NA 0.04367 NA NA NA NA [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [13,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [14,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [[3]] [[3]][[1]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.7246 -0.1949 0.2114 -0.4588 0.3214 -0.0258 -0.3516 s.e. 0.2672 0.1321 0.0984 0.2655 1.2177 0.1317 1.2185 sigma^2 estimated as 19380: log likelihood = -699.2, aic = 1414.39 [[3]][[2]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.7246 -0.1949 0.2114 -0.4588 0.3214 -0.0258 -0.3516 s.e. 0.2672 0.1321 0.0984 0.2655 1.2177 0.1317 1.2185 sigma^2 estimated as 19380: log likelihood = -699.2, aic = 1414.39 [[3]][[3]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.7247 -0.1939 0.2118 -0.4570 0.4259 0 -0.4615 s.e. 0.2664 0.1322 0.0986 0.2646 1.2115 0 1.2007 sigma^2 estimated as 19390: log likelihood = -699.21, aic = 1412.43 [[3]][[4]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.7264 -0.1921 0.2101 -0.4571 0 0 -0.0296 s.e. 0.2666 0.1324 0.0987 0.2650 0 0 0.1017 sigma^2 estimated as 19401: log likelihood = -699.24, aic = 1410.48 [[3]][[5]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.7265 -0.1878 0.2054 -0.4588 0 0 0 s.e. 0.2689 0.1318 0.0976 0.2669 0 0 0 sigma^2 estimated as 19418: log likelihood = -699.28, aic = 1408.57 [[3]][[6]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.2937 0 0.1811 -0.0207 0 0 0 s.e. 0.4256 0 0.0923 0.5066 0 0 0 sigma^2 estimated as 19761: log likelihood = -700.22, aic = 1408.43 [[3]][[7]] NULL $aic [1] 1414.392 1412.427 1410.483 1408.568 1408.433 1406.435 Warning messages: 1: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 2: In log(s2) : NaNs produced 3: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 4: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 5: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 6: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1bni91262178865.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > resid <- arimaSelectplot(selection) > dev.off() null device 1 > resid Time Series: Start = 1 End = 111 Frequency = 1 [1] 3.03292827 12.02605157 59.74754554 -114.46506521 -2.22693508 [6] 4.35951996 -147.14761534 65.15357220 -58.94421531 94.50641274 [11] 54.04975392 -31.95828307 -291.42722801 103.21001498 13.41847528 [16] 25.84876775 81.76514110 0.03426561 -13.85422830 63.90627937 [21] -37.90843540 -239.48869727 -197.31433494 -18.38115321 -78.87081282 [26] -37.82957325 153.83570143 -46.25233357 -13.13179438 -185.29911938 [31] -72.91178193 243.82522514 56.61481781 51.45047063 -39.34757805 [36] 74.13394791 -2.27501727 16.13534406 29.34311804 1.19479123 [41] 142.27482452 37.88956415 -61.21571434 44.35221690 -99.39981402 [46] 69.83619931 -30.55178255 62.89357942 125.96594902 71.50940607 [51] 52.33930131 19.32188622 19.49308383 64.64035790 -15.08614950 [56] -5.69174870 -79.88922452 46.80171203 52.39155216 88.15731514 [61] -12.89108086 0.55555603 46.01734584 107.37022642 133.53434276 [66] 85.59246334 40.21180838 -83.72614981 -116.03249807 -224.59736733 [71] 198.73012444 143.26027580 105.42608578 115.12578457 -14.94113823 [76] 53.32177951 96.86110248 4.70669898 -179.31466221 245.64925892 [81] 31.33332054 -79.57966856 -80.43792008 -363.92405608 205.93937990 [86] 126.01161885 -302.94710226 85.14679096 -298.92349654 10.00053832 [91] -12.17785143 245.93278829 -82.91349770 -273.36216409 -423.46831222 [96] 154.45963801 -32.00643765 -654.88788514 24.99438953 -81.90851880 [101] 223.84271004 -69.08446608 -87.16634974 226.24401520 152.27624108 [106] -48.84329247 11.60917325 176.74665505 92.20775451 20.32966648 [111] -106.66070182 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2784r1262178865.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > acf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3eotk1262178865.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > pacf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4sc791262178865.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > cpgram(resid, main='Residual Cumulative Periodogram') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/5frf31262178865.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > hist(resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/6eybo1262178865.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > densityplot(~resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/7ifml1262178865.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > qqnorm(resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot') > qqline(resid) > dev.off() null device 1 > ncols <- length(selection[[1]][1,]) > nrows <- length(selection[[2]][,1])-1 > > #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection', ncols+1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Iteration', header=TRUE) > for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,names(selection[[3]][[1]]$coef)[i],header=TRUE) + } > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (j in 1:nrows) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + mydum <- 'Estimates (' + mydum <- paste(mydum,j) + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum, header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,round(selection[[1]][j,i],4)) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'(p-val)', header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + mydum <- '(' + mydum <- paste(mydum,round(selection[[2]][j,i],4),sep='') + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/8j1c01262178865.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated ARIMA Residuals', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Value', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in (par4*par5+par3):length(resid)) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,resid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/952yz1262178865.tab") > > try(system("convert tmp/1bni91262178865.ps tmp/1bni91262178865.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/2784r1262178865.ps tmp/2784r1262178865.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/3eotk1262178865.ps tmp/3eotk1262178865.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/4sc791262178865.ps tmp/4sc791262178865.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/5frf31262178865.ps tmp/5frf31262178865.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/6eybo1262178865.ps tmp/6eybo1262178865.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/7ifml1262178865.ps tmp/7ifml1262178865.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 6.638 2.219 8.202