R version 2.9.0 (2009-04-17)
Copyright (C) 2009 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

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> x <- c(10070,10137,9984,9732,9103,9155,9308,9394,9948,10177,10002,9728,10002,10063,10018,9960,10236,10893,10756,10940,10997,10827,10166,10186,10457,10368,10244,10511,10812,10738,10171,9721,9897,9828,9924,10371,10846,10413,10709,10662,10570,10297,10635,10872,10296,10383,10431,10574,10653,10805,10872,10625,10407,10463,10556,10646,10702,11353,11346,11451,11964,12574,13031,13812,14544,14931,14886,16005,17064,15168,16050,15839,15137,14954,15648,15305,15579,16348,15928,16171,15937,15713,15594,15683,16438,17032,17696,17745,19394,20148,20108,18584,18441,18391,19178,18079,18483,19644,19195,19650,20830,23595,22937,21814,21928,21777,21383,21467,22052,22680,24320)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '0'
> par8 = '1'
> par7 = '0'
> par6 = '0'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '0'
> par3 = '1'
> par2 = '1'
> par1 = '12'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: Wessa P., (2009), ARIMA Forecasting (v1.0.5) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_arimaforecasting.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: 
> #Technical description: 
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")

Coefficients:
        sar1
      0.0047
s.e.  0.1178

sigma^2 estimated as 270191:  log likelihood = -751.89,  aic = 1507.79
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,par1))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 100 
End = 111 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 19195.23 19202.98 19206.52 19206.33 19199.17 19198.50 19198.27 19201.96
 [9] 19196.80 19198.70 19204.15 19202.04

$se
Time Series:
Start = 100 
End = 111 
Frequency = 1 
 [1]  519.7994  735.1074  900.3190 1039.5989 1162.3069 1273.2434 1375.2600
 [8] 1470.2148 1559.3983 1643.7501 1723.9797 1800.6380

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 100 
End = 111 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 18176.42 17762.17 17441.89 17168.72 16921.05 16702.94 16502.76 16320.34
 [9] 16140.38 15976.95 15825.15 15672.79
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 100 
End = 111 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 20214.04 20643.79 20971.14 21243.95 21477.29 21694.06 21893.77 22083.58
 [9] 22253.22 22420.45 22583.15 22731.29
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> if (par2 < 0) {
+ olb <- lb
+ lb <- ub
+ ub <- olb
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
  [1] 10070.00 10137.00  9984.00  9732.00  9103.00  9155.00  9308.00  9394.00
  [9]  9948.00 10177.00 10002.00  9728.00 10002.00 10063.00 10018.00  9960.00
 [17] 10236.00 10893.00 10756.00 10940.00 10997.00 10827.00 10166.00 10186.00
 [25] 10457.00 10368.00 10244.00 10511.00 10812.00 10738.00 10171.00  9721.00
 [33]  9897.00  9828.00  9924.00 10371.00 10846.00 10413.00 10709.00 10662.00
 [41] 10570.00 10297.00 10635.00 10872.00 10296.00 10383.00 10431.00 10574.00
 [49] 10653.00 10805.00 10872.00 10625.00 10407.00 10463.00 10556.00 10646.00
 [57] 10702.00 11353.00 11346.00 11451.00 11964.00 12574.00 13031.00 13812.00
 [65] 14544.00 14931.00 14886.00 16005.00 17064.00 15168.00 16050.00 15839.00
 [73] 15137.00 14954.00 15648.00 15305.00 15579.00 16348.00 15928.00 16171.00
 [81] 15937.00 15713.00 15594.00 15683.00 16438.00 17032.00 17696.00 17745.00
 [89] 19394.00 20148.00 20108.00 18584.00 18441.00 18391.00 19178.00 18079.00
 [97] 18483.00 19644.00 19195.00 19195.23 19202.98 19206.52 19206.33 19199.17
[105] 19198.50 19198.27 19201.96 19196.80 19198.70 19204.15 19202.04
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 100 
End = 111 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.02707961 0.03828091 0.04687570 0.05412792 0.06053943 0.06631994
 [7] 0.07163460 0.07656586 0.08123220 0.08561779 0.08977120 0.09377326
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/16gpm1262195252.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
> lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
> lines(x, lwd=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
> box()
> par(opar)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape1 <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse1 <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
+ perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]
+ perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
+ prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ }
> perf.mape[1] = abs(perf.pe[1])
> perf.mse[1] = abs(perf.se[1])
> for (i in 2:fx) {
+ perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i-1] + abs(perf.pe[i])
+ perf.mape1[i] = perf.mape[i] / i
+ perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i-1] + perf.se[i]
+ perf.mse1[i] = perf.mse[i] / i
+ }
> perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse1)
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/29gso1262195252.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
> dum <- forecast$pred
> dum[1:par1] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
> lines(dum, lty=1)
> lines(ub,lty=3)
> lines(lb,lty=3)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> 
> #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab
> load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable")
> 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
> mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
> mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
> a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i])
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3xro31262195252.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape1[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse1[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4cokl1262195252.tab") 
> 
> try(system("convert tmp/16gpm1262195252.ps tmp/16gpm1262195252.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> try(system("convert tmp/29gso1262195252.ps tmp/29gso1262195252.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  0.579   0.323   0.725