R version 2.9.0 (2009-04-17)
Copyright (C) 2009 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY.
You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions.
Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details.

R is a collaborative project with many contributors.
Type 'contributors()' for more information and
'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications.

Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or
'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help.
Type 'q()' to quit R.

> x <- c(32.68,31.54,32.43,26.54,25.85,27.6,25.71,25.38,28.57,27.64,25.36,25.9,26.29,21.74,19.2,19.32,19.82,20.36,24.31,25.97,25.61,24.67,25.59,26.09,28.37,27.34,24.46,27.46,30.23,32.33,29.87,24.87,25.48,27.28,28.24,29.58,26.95,29.08,28.76,29.59,30.7,30.52,32.67,33.19,37.13,35.54,37.75,41.84,42.94,49.14,44.61,40.22,44.23,45.85,53.38,53.26,51.8,55.3,57.81,63.96,63.77,59.15,56.12,57.42,63.52,61.71,63.01,68.18,72.03,69.75,74.41,74.33,64.24,60.03,59.44,62.5,55.04,58.34,61.92,67.65,67.68,70.3,75.26,71.44,76.36,81.71,92.6,90.6,92.23,94.09,102.79,109.65,124.05,132.69,135.81,116.07,101.42,75.73,55.48,43.80,45.29,44.01,47.48,51.07,57.84,69.04,65.61,72.87,68.41,73.25,77.43)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '0'
> par8 = '0'
> par7 = '1'
> par6 = '3'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '0'
> par3 = '1'
> par2 = '1'
> par1 = '12'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: Wessa P., (2009), ARIMA Forecasting (v1.0.5) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_arimaforecasting.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: 
> #Technical description: 
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")

Coefficients:
         ar1     ar2     ar3     ma1
      0.1940  0.3414  -0.125  0.3517
s.e.  0.7625  0.4162   0.170  0.7771

sigma^2 estimated as 22.32:  log likelihood = -291.47,  aic = 592.95
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,par1))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 100 
End = 111 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 41.92015 35.58655 32.25910 31.14593 30.58552 30.51263 30.44628 30.47856
 [9] 30.47128 30.48919 30.48614 30.49257

$se
Time Series:
Start = 100 
End = 111 
Frequency = 1 
 [1]  4.724578  8.697643 12.818215 16.328787 19.495197 22.252536 24.752186
 [8] 27.014119 29.109804 31.059037 32.895471 34.632531

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 100 
End = 111 
Frequency = 1 
 [1]  32.6599807  18.5391656   7.1354022  -0.8584886  -7.6250669 -13.1023434
 [7] -18.0680078 -22.4691077 -26.5839315 -30.3865230 -33.9889818 -37.3871863
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 100 
End = 111 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 51.18033 52.63393 57.38280 63.15036 68.79611 74.12760 78.96056 83.42624
 [9] 87.52650 91.36490 94.96127 98.37233
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> if (par2 < 0) {
+ olb <- lb
+ lb <- ub
+ ub <- olb
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
  [1]  32.68000  31.54000  32.43000  26.54000  25.85000  27.60000  25.71000
  [8]  25.38000  28.57000  27.64000  25.36000  25.90000  26.29000  21.74000
 [15]  19.20000  19.32000  19.82000  20.36000  24.31000  25.97000  25.61000
 [22]  24.67000  25.59000  26.09000  28.37000  27.34000  24.46000  27.46000
 [29]  30.23000  32.33000  29.87000  24.87000  25.48000  27.28000  28.24000
 [36]  29.58000  26.95000  29.08000  28.76000  29.59000  30.70000  30.52000
 [43]  32.67000  33.19000  37.13000  35.54000  37.75000  41.84000  42.94000
 [50]  49.14000  44.61000  40.22000  44.23000  45.85000  53.38000  53.26000
 [57]  51.80000  55.30000  57.81000  63.96000  63.77000  59.15000  56.12000
 [64]  57.42000  63.52000  61.71000  63.01000  68.18000  72.03000  69.75000
 [71]  74.41000  74.33000  64.24000  60.03000  59.44000  62.50000  55.04000
 [78]  58.34000  61.92000  67.65000  67.68000  70.30000  75.26000  71.44000
 [85]  76.36000  81.71000  92.60000  90.60000  92.23000  94.09000 102.79000
 [92] 109.65000 124.05000 132.69000 135.81000 116.07000 101.42000  75.73000
 [99]  55.48000  41.92015  35.58655  32.25910  31.14593  30.58552  30.51263
[106]  30.44628  30.47856  30.47128  30.48919  30.48614  30.49257
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 100 
End = 111 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.1127042 0.2444082 0.3973519 0.5242671 0.6373996 0.7292894 0.8129791
 [8] 0.8863317 0.9553192 1.0186901 1.0790303 1.1357693
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1mhzz1262196233.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
> lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
> lines(x, lwd=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
> box()
> par(opar)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape1 <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse1 <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
+ perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]
+ perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
+ prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ }
> perf.mape[1] = abs(perf.pe[1])
> perf.mse[1] = abs(perf.se[1])
> for (i in 2:fx) {
+ perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i-1] + abs(perf.pe[i])
+ perf.mape1[i] = perf.mape[i] / i
+ perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i-1] + perf.se[i]
+ perf.mse1[i] = perf.mse[i] / i
+ }
> perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse1)
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2yqhi1262196233.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
> dum <- forecast$pred
> dum[1:par1] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
> lines(dum, lty=1)
> lines(ub,lty=3)
> lines(lb,lty=3)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> 
> #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab
> load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable")
> 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
> mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
> mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
> a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i])
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3eedj1262196233.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape1[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse1[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4j4e61262196233.tab") 
> 
> try(system("convert tmp/1mhzz1262196233.ps tmp/1mhzz1262196233.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> try(system("convert tmp/2yqhi1262196233.ps tmp/2yqhi1262196233.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  0.590   0.327   1.010