R version 2.8.0 (2008-10-20)
Copyright (C) 2008 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

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> x <- c(3900,4307,4631,4347,4287,3801,4916,4591,4433,4317,4316,4284,4512,4378,4869,4799,3771)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '1'
> par8 = '0'
> par7 = '0'
> par6 = '0'
> par5 = '1'
> par4 = '1'
> par3 = '0'
> par2 = '2.0'
> par1 = '0'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education
> #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!)
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")

Coefficients:
        sma1
      -1.000
s.e.   0.233

sigma^2 estimated as 8.468e+12:  log likelihood = -262.26,  aic = 528.52
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,fx))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 18 
End = 19 
Frequency = 1 
[1] 19289684 19289684

$se
Time Series:
Start = 18 
End = 19 
Frequency = 1 
[1] 2994380 2994380

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 18 
End = 19 
Frequency = 1 
[1] 13420700 13420700
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 18 
End = 19 
Frequency = 1 
[1] 25158668 25158668
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> if (par2 < 0) {
+ olb <- lb
+ lb <- ub
+ ub <- olb
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
 [1] 3900.000 4307.000 4631.000 4347.000 4287.000 3801.000 4916.000 4591.000
 [9] 4433.000 4317.000 4316.000 4284.000 4512.000 4378.000 4869.000 4799.000
[17] 3771.000 4392.002 4392.002
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 18 
End = 19 
Frequency = 1 
[1] 0.07246932 0.07246932
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/freestat/rcomp/tmp/1lhve1238343242.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
Error in xy.coords(x, y) : 'x' and 'y' lengths differ
Calls: polygon -> xy.coords
Execution halted