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Multuple regression

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:42:44 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/17/t1258487199feun5ahojdntqdp.htm/, Retrieved Tue, 17 Nov 2009 20:46:50 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/17/t1258487199feun5ahojdntqdp.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
JSSHWWS7P4
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
9,2 7,6 9,2 10 10,9 11,1 9,5 7,8 9,2 9,2 10 10,9 9,6 7,8 9,5 9,2 9,2 10 9,5 7,8 9,6 9,5 9,2 9,2 9,1 7,5 9,5 9,6 9,5 9,2 8,9 7,5 9,1 9,5 9,6 9,5 9 7,1 8,9 9,1 9,5 9,6 10,1 7,5 9 8,9 9,1 9,5 10,3 7,5 10,1 9 8,9 9,1 10,2 7,6 10,3 10,1 9 8,9 9,6 7,7 10,2 10,3 10,1 9 9,2 7,7 9,6 10,2 10,3 10,1 9,3 7,9 9,2 9,6 10,2 10,3 9,4 8,1 9,3 9,2 9,6 10,2 9,4 8,2 9,4 9,3 9,2 9,6 9,2 8,2 9,4 9,4 9,3 9,2 9 8,2 9,2 9,4 9,4 9,3 9 7,9 9 9,2 9,4 9,4 9 7,3 9 9 9,2 9,4 9,8 6,9 9 9 9 9,2 10 6,6 9,8 9 9 9 9,8 6,7 10 9,8 9 9 9,3 6,9 9,8 10 9,8 9 9 7 9,3 9,8 10 9,8 9 7,1 9 9,3 9,8 10 9,1 7,2 9 9 9,3 9,8 9,1 7,1 9,1 9 9 9,3 9,1 6,9 9,1 9,1 9 9 9,2 7 9,1 9,1 9,1 9 8,8 6,8 9,2 9,1 9,1 9,1 8,3 6,4 8,8 9,2 9,1 9,1 8,4 6,7 8,3 8,8 9,2 9,1 8,1 6,6 8,4 8,3 8,8 9,2 7,7 6,4 8,1 8,4 8,3 8,8 7,9 6,3 7,7 8,1 8,4 8,3 7,9 6,2 7,9 7,7 8,1 8,4 8 6,5 7,9 7,9 7,7 8,1 7,9 6,8 8 7,9 7,9 7,7 7,6 6,8 7,9 8 7,9 7,9 7,1 6,4 7,6 7,9 8 7,9 6,8 6,1 7,1 7,6 7,9 8 6,5 5,8 6,8 7,1 7,6 7,9 6,9 6,1 6,5 6,8 7,1 7,6 8,2 7,2 6,9 6 etc...
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time5 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = + 0.80797132690177 + 0.0631745437846552X[t] + 1.41002342029138`Yt-1`[t] -0.566106428055065`Yt-2`[t] -0.308555685587945`Yt-3`[t] + 0.332779490804355`Yt-4`[t] + 0.201311751689259M1[t] -0.0408183587718783M2[t] -0.231707208277215M3[t] -0.134527991088984M4[t] -0.0880250719712937M5[t] -0.162099437565197M6[t] + 0.0678126634427705M7[t] + 0.66814134161663M8[t] -0.291632423961118M9[t] -0.225191440884684M10[t] + 0.191229439246727M11[t] -0.00471385316526875t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)0.807971326901770.705681.1450.2593890.129694
X0.06317454378465520.0544471.16030.2531710.126585
`Yt-1`1.410023420291380.1581278.91700
`Yt-2`-0.5661064280550650.280564-2.01770.050720.02536
`Yt-3`-0.3085556855879450.272636-1.13180.2648310.132415
`Yt-4`0.3327794908043550.1463862.27330.0287460.014373
M10.2013117516892590.1358671.48170.1466690.073335
M2-0.04081835877187830.149189-0.27360.7858730.392936
M3-0.2317072082772150.162334-1.42740.1616450.080822
M4-0.1345279910889840.145241-0.92620.3601660.180083
M5-0.08802507197129370.136447-0.64510.5227240.261362
M6-0.1620994375651970.133765-1.21180.2330620.116531
M70.06781266344277050.1384580.48980.6271120.313556
M80.668141341616630.144024.63924.1e-052e-05
M9-0.2916324239611180.186162-1.56650.1255110.062755
M10-0.2251914408846840.203813-1.10490.2761540.138077
M110.1912294392467270.153261.24770.2197590.10988
t-0.004713853165268750.003499-1.3470.1859520.092976


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.985384503603201
R-squared0.970982619941328
Adjusted R-squared0.958001160441395
F-TEST (value)74.7976465933113
F-TEST (DF numerator)17
F-TEST (DF denominator)38
p-value0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation0.188034632645485
Sum Squared Residuals1.34356687681666


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
19.29.126442319338970.0735576806610257
29.59.55626262578181-0.0562626257818134
39.69.73100995594506-0.131009955945064
49.59.52842214093716-0.0284221409371571
59.19.26107915324316-0.161079153243157
68.98.743870487855450.156129512144552
798.952370322987270.0476296770127346
810.19.91762291830460.182377081695388
910.310.3761497598725-0.0761497598724539
1010.210.00607049064010.193929509359871
119.69.86373803927828-0.263738039278278
129.29.182737640264160.0172623597358371
139.39.265036402981230.0349635970187668
149.49.55012772363526-0.150127723635256
159.49.368988754319310.0310112456806879
169.29.24087611065623-0.0408761106562316
1799.00308287307202-0.00308287307201619
1898.769836841810620.230163158189379
1999.13206278611113-0.132062786111129
209.89.697563032562580.102436967437426
21109.77558588875640.224414111243603
229.89.672750014660250.127249985339748
239.39.45502143224368-0.155021432243681
2498.878117625201370.121882374798632
2599.0693462013224-0.0693462013223991
269.19.086373565124080.0136264348759192
279.18.951632710378350.148367289621646
289.18.875018675597570.224981324402428
299.28.892269627369660.307730372630335
308.88.97512679096313-0.175126790963134
318.38.55443521036992-0.254435210369914
328.48.65957769103144-0.25957769103144
338.18.26952839728224-0.169528397282241
347.77.86016899601578-0.160168996015784
357.97.674135814942460.225864185057544
367.98.10616697818912-0.206166978189116
3788.23208438123136-0.232084381231361
387.97.95037218933016-0.0503721893301582
397.67.62371239998578-0.0237123999857807
407.17.29365599465418-0.193655994654177
416.86.84544643338126-0.0454464333812602
426.56.66704079602276-0.167040796022757
436.96.712460304882620.187539695117377
448.28.037585384861610.162414615138386
458.78.67873595408890.0212640459110920
468.38.46101049868384-0.161010498683835
477.97.707104713535580.192895286464416
487.57.432977756345350.0670222436546477
497.87.607090695126030.192909304873968
508.38.05686389612870.243136103871308
518.48.42465617937149-0.0246561793714894
528.28.162027078154860.0379729218451374
537.77.7981219129339-0.098121912933902
547.27.24412508334804-0.0441250833480401
557.37.148671375649070.151328624350930
568.18.28765097323976-0.187650973239759


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
210.055082493266530.110164986533060.94491750673347
220.04916758245456990.09833516490913970.95083241754543
230.02578342651747180.05156685303494360.974216573482528
240.01510302741687660.03020605483375310.984896972583123
250.009744222487652280.01948844497530460.990255777512348
260.003643482514901510.007286965029803020.996356517485099
270.001324785639443050.002649571278886110.998675214360557
280.003107590930763950.006215181861527910.996892409069236
290.1637444552523670.3274889105047330.836255544747633
300.1620118899637430.3240237799274860.837988110036257
310.1288002056592180.2576004113184370.871199794340782
320.6636272570774550.6727454858450910.336372742922545
330.7855622950183560.4288754099632870.214437704981644
340.9947524228593020.01049515428139580.00524757714069789
350.9823515998065510.03529680038689760.0176484001934488


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level30.2NOK
5% type I error level70.466666666666667NOK
10% type I error level90.6NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/17/t1258487199feun5ahojdntqdp/10pxwf1258486958.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/17/t1258487199feun5ahojdntqdp/8tmy41258486958.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/17/t1258487199feun5ahojdntqdp/9ers81258486958.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/17/t1258487199feun5ahojdntqdp/9ers81258486958.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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