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*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Wed, 18 Nov 2009 10:08:15 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6.htm/, Retrieved Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:22:06 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
24 24 22 23 25 24 24 24 29 27 26 28 26 25 21 19 23 19 22 19 21 20 16 16 19 22 16 21 25 25 27 29 23 28 22 25 23 26 20 24 24 28 23 28 20 28 21 28 22 32 17 31 21 22 19 29 23 31 22 29 15 32 23 32 21 31 18 29 18 28 18 28 18 29 10 22 13 26 10 24 9 27 9 27 6 23 11 21 9 19 10 17 9 19 16 21 10 13 7 8 7 5 14 10 11 6 10 6 6 8 8 11 13 12 12 13 15 19 16 19 16 18
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
s[t] = + 5.58678911521391 + 0.525575434025019consv[t] + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)5.586789115213912.0794062.68670.0093590.00468
consv0.5255754340250190.0890215.903900


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.609410364300489
R-squared0.371380992116854
Adjusted R-squared0.360726432661208
F-TEST (value)34.8565319535606
F-TEST (DF numerator)1
F-TEST (DF denominator)59
p-value1.86578364536061e-07
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation4.95273565874902
Sum Squared Residuals1447.2458398212


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
12418.20059953181445.79940046818562
22217.67502409778944.32497590221065
32518.20059953181446.79940046818562
42418.20059953181445.79940046818562
52919.77732583388949.22267416611056
62620.30290126791455.69709873208555
72618.72617496583947.2738250341606
82115.57272236168935.42727763831072
92315.57272236168937.42727763831072
102215.57272236168936.42727763831072
112116.09829779571434.9017022042857
121613.99599605961422.00400394038578
131917.14944866376431.85055133623566
141616.6238732297393-0.62387322973932
152518.72617496583946.2738250341606
162720.82847670193956.17152329806053
172320.30290126791452.69709873208555
182218.72617496583943.2738250341606
192319.25175039986443.74824960013558
202018.20059953181441.79940046818562
212420.30290126791453.69709873208555
222320.30290126791452.69709873208555
232020.3029012679145-0.302901267914455
242120.30290126791450.697098732085545
252222.4052030040145-0.405203004014532
261721.8796275699895-4.87962756998951
272117.14944866376433.85055133623566
281920.8284767019395-1.82847670193947
292321.87962756998951.12037243001049
302220.82847670193951.17152329806053
311522.4052030040145-7.40520300401453
322322.40520300401450.594796995985468
332121.8796275699895-0.879627569989513
341820.8284767019395-2.82847670193947
351820.3029012679145-2.30290126791445
361820.3029012679145-2.30290126791445
371820.8284767019395-2.82847670193947
381017.1494486637643-7.14944866376434
391319.2517503998644-6.25175039986442
401018.2005995318144-8.20059953181438
41919.7773258338894-10.7773258338894
42919.7773258338894-10.7773258338894
43617.6750240977894-11.6750240977894
441116.6238732297393-5.62387322973932
45915.5727223616893-6.57272236168928
461014.5215714936392-4.52157149363924
47915.5727223616893-6.57272236168928
481616.6238732297393-0.62387322973932
491012.4192697575392-2.41926975753917
5079.79139258741407-2.79139258741407
5178.21466628533901-1.21466628533901
521410.84254345546413.15745654453589
53118.740241719364032.25975828063597
54108.740241719364031.25975828063597
5569.79139258741407-3.79139258741407
56811.3681188894891-3.36811888948913
571311.89369432351411.10630567648585
581212.4192697575392-0.419269757539166
591515.5727223616893-0.572722361689281
601615.57272236168930.427277638310719
611615.04714692766430.952853072335738


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
50.002589850701150580.005179701402301160.99741014929885
60.0225852183279690.0451704366559380.97741478167203
70.008739101045512760.01747820209102550.991260898954487
80.003230862832921240.006461725665842470.996769137167079
90.002684629360295520.005369258720591050.997315370639704
100.001026909216003910.002053818432007830.998973090783996
110.0004802588117493790.0009605176234987580.99951974118825
120.0007676257053817110.001535251410763420.999232374294618
130.002383891702372700.004767783404745410.997616108297627
140.01461495389802280.02922990779604570.985385046101977
150.01033787567589730.02067575135179450.989662124324103
160.008472662948762170.01694532589752430.991527337051238
170.01242085544882180.02484171089764360.987579144551178
180.01085738798813630.02171477597627260.989142612011864
190.009428531462728930.01885706292545790.990571468537271
200.01060021005706920.02120042011413830.98939978994293
210.01033694134436790.02067388268873590.989663058655632
220.01133078582945390.02266157165890780.988669214170546
230.02309727665494840.04619455330989670.976902723345052
240.02795373318748570.05590746637497150.972046266812514
250.03486642823123850.06973285646247690.965133571768761
260.09953864125284550.1990772825056910.900461358747154
270.1103029895875350.2206059791750690.889697010412465
280.1185335299292840.2370670598585680.881466470070716
290.1228441231533130.2456882463066250.877155876846687
300.1368310661929210.2736621323858420.863168933807079
310.2625230121850240.5250460243700470.737476987814976
320.308797646766030.617595293532060.69120235323397
330.3449721378519380.6899442757038770.655027862148062
340.3754428470731780.7508856941463560.624557152926822
350.4214325596745350.842865119349070.578567440325465
360.4910839336400690.9821678672801390.508916066359931
370.599268720101190.801462559797620.40073127989881
380.7849725030557190.4300549938885620.215027496944281
390.8203080894034730.3593838211930530.179691910596527
400.8783494668923440.2433010662153120.121650533107656
410.930373950428750.1392520991425010.0696260495712507
420.9602762814967720.0794474370064550.0397237185032275
430.9951748185197630.009650362960473760.00482518148023688
440.9946932806574040.01061343868519240.0053067193425962
450.9969672067589250.006065586482149710.00303279324107485
460.9966909796494880.006618040701024710.00330902035051236
470.9993145058374320.001370988325136960.000685494162568478
480.998237973317510.003524053364978210.00176202668248911
490.9969802870315920.006039425936815140.00301971296840757
500.9955377205151360.008924558969727560.00446227948486378
510.9901105668377150.01977886632456900.00988943316228452
520.989133108040080.02173378391984090.0108668919599205
530.9878945756246430.02421084875071330.0121054243753566
540.9926864322221240.01462713555575140.0073135677778757
550.9820486198270770.03590276034584520.0179513801729226
560.993440776113170.01311844777365950.00655922388682976


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level140.269230769230769NOK
5% type I error level330.634615384615385NOK
10% type I error level360.692307692307692NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/103cid1258564090.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/103cid1258564090.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/1mk261258564090.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/1mk261258564090.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/2seea1258564090.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/2seea1258564090.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/3t9d11258564090.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/3t9d11258564090.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/4wz5o1258564090.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/4wz5o1258564090.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/5r88q1258564090.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/5r88q1258564090.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/6aihd1258564090.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/6aihd1258564090.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/75qm21258564090.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/75qm21258564090.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/8eux51258564090.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/8eux51258564090.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/9q61f1258564090.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258564913ohm5v8m8pge0fv6/9q61f1258564090.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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