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*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Wed, 18 Nov 2009 10:37:10 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258566016g30clivhee8slgj.htm/, Retrieved Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:40:28 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258566016g30clivhee8slgj.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
ws7
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
8031 4871 6820 7291 7862 4649 8031 6820 7357 4922 7862 8031 7213 4879 7357 7862 7079 4853 7213 7357 7012 4545 7079 7213 7319 4733 7012 7079 8148 5191 7319 7012 7599 4983 8148 7319 6908 4593 7599 8148 7878 4656 6908 7599 7407 4513 7878 6908 7911 4857 7407 7878 7323 4681 7911 7407 7179 4897 7323 7911 6758 4547 7179 7323 6934 4692 6758 7179 6696 4390 6934 6758 7688 5341 6696 6934 8296 5415 7688 6696 7697 4890 8296 7688 7907 5120 7697 8296 7592 4422 7907 7697 7710 4797 7592 7907 9011 5689 7710 7592 8225 5171 9011 7710 7733 4265 8225 9011 8062 5215 7733 8225 7859 4874 8062 7733 8221 4590 7859 8062 8330 4994 8221 7859 8868 4988 8330 8221 9053 5110 8868 8330 8811 5141 9053 8868 8120 4395 8811 9053 7953 4523 8120 8811 8878 5306 7953 8120 8601 5365 8878 7953 8361 5496 8601 8878 9116 5647 8361 8601 9310 5443 9116 8361 9891 5546 9310 9116 10147 5912 9891 9310 10317 5665 10147 9891 10682 5963 10317 10147 10276 5861 10682 10317 10614 5366 10276 10682 9413 5619 10614 10276 11 etc...
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time4 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = + 707.247503352974 + 0.466569037099199X[t] + 0.294685419695422Y1[t] + 0.259943907693913Y2[t] + 795.753299651672M1[t] + 187.164289089145M2[t] + 0.215252841099507M3[t] + 76.4850064780137M4[t] + 150.436085547817M5[t] + 385.019127983302M6[t] + 437.49798746352M7[t] + 902.749795565776M8[t] + 506.825073622954M9[t] -91.7651885083793M10[t] + 534.126565021445M11[t] + 12.7222622255647t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)707.247503352974648.6514551.09030.2804070.140204
X0.4665690370991990.1202113.88120.0002850.000142
Y10.2946854196954220.1185242.48630.0160330.008016
Y20.2599439076939130.1153042.25440.0282480.014124
M1795.753299651672252.487833.15170.0026490.001324
M2187.164289089145235.1473080.79590.4295490.214775
M30.215252841099507233.9515789e-040.9992690.499635
M476.4850064780137231.907450.32980.7428210.37141
M5150.436085547817219.2068580.68630.4954760.247738
M6385.019127983302217.2466221.77230.0819920.040996
M7437.49798746352227.3935541.9240.0596360.029818
M8902.749795565776227.5852673.96660.0002160.000108
M9506.825073622954228.5441222.21760.0308090.015404
M10-91.7651885083793221.047664-0.41510.6796860.339843
M11534.126565021445229.0671952.33170.0234740.011737
t12.72226222556477.1477171.77990.0807180.040359


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.98068862930769
R-squared0.961750187653395
Adjusted R-squared0.951125239779338
F-TEST (value)90.5181087995464
F-TEST (DF numerator)15
F-TEST (DF denominator)54
p-value0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation346.635162288257
Sum Squared Residuals6488420.52966873


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
180317693.38643825949337.613561740513
278627228.37182641385633.628173586149
373577446.50863580825-89.5086358082493
472137322.691525729-109.691525729004
570797223.52769823822-144.527698238224
670127250.20997052561-238.209970525612
773197348.54966445547-29.5496644554662
881488113.2645358057234.7354641942780
975997957.11270896137-358.112708961367
1069087242.99398865238-334.993988652379
1178787564.66502341152313.334976588477
1274077082.76496519852324.235034801477
1379118165.08903362444-254.089033624437
1473237513.19400576067-190.194005760673
1571797397.48284644844-218.482846448444
1667587127.89398116604-369.893981166042
1769347120.7253484411-186.725348441098
1866967169.55505262545-473.555052625446
1976887654.0783264791833.9216735208152
2082968397.03979185905-101.039791859053
2176978205.9216792719-508.921679271895
2279077708.89388737928198.106112620716
2375927928.02025266682-336.020252666817
2477107543.3416521948166.6583478052
2590118720.887343765290.112656235
2682258297.39694634228-72.3969463422772
2777337807.0229087371-74.0229087371023
2880627989.9543719062672.0456280937434
2978597886.58677204519-27.5867720451868
3082218027.08687560319193.913124396809
3183308334.68939696493-4.68939696492713
3288688936.08445840215-68.0844584021506
3390538796.67806294577256.321937054231
3488118419.64032817305391.359671826946
3581208686.96959360952-566.969593609522
3679537958.75207689088-5.75207689087666
3788788903.71748951116-25.7174895111573
3886018564.5516949964336.4483050035718
3983618610.26571819518-249.265718195181
4091168626.98069550152489.019304498476
4193108778.57490725216531.425092747840
4298919327.36344446424563.636555535757
43101479784.970180684362.029819316010
441031710374.1685766605-57.1685766605008
451068210246.6458517167435.354148283332
46102769764.93845252358511.061547476424
471061410147.8380408268466.161959173201
4894139738.54214975034-325.542149750339
491106810795.1206422572272.879357742764
50977210063.5640826306-291.564082630640
511035010201.2436778774148.756322122634
521054110234.253423745306.746576255003
531004910218.1239872525-169.123987252504
541071410427.9479123932286.052087606756
551075910701.659715777957.3402842220646
561168411350.3605503842333.639449615771
571146211376.013512636985.9864873630511
581048510841.0661003073-356.06610030728
591105610932.5070894853123.492910514661
601018410343.5991559655-159.599155965460
611108211702.7990525827-620.799052582683
621055410669.9214438561-115.921443856131
631131510832.4762129337482.523787066343
641084711235.2260019522-388.226001952177
651110411107.4612867708-3.46128677082668
661102611357.8367443883-331.836744388264
671107311492.0527156385-419.052715638495
681207312215.0820868883-142.082086888344
691232812238.628184467489.3718155326487
701117211581.4672429644-409.467242964426


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
190.08747641909382880.1749528381876580.912523580906171
200.02900722825245680.05801445650491370.970992771747543
210.06173309966828270.1234661993365650.938266900331717
220.1462034207132690.2924068414265370.853796579286731
230.0960627687675640.1921255375351280.903937231232436
240.05616802139402110.1123360427880420.943831978605979
250.02926672535028620.05853345070057250.970733274649714
260.01465739077771650.0293147815554330.985342609222283
270.1895309685832040.3790619371664080.810469031416796
280.1853884805733170.3707769611466340.814611519426683
290.1706847937872430.3413695875744860.829315206212757
300.2214208095221350.4428416190442710.778579190477865
310.1653410831008470.3306821662016930.834658916899153
320.1292194742889450.258438948577890.870780525711055
330.1783866481827150.356773296365430.821613351817285
340.1430578309752170.2861156619504350.856942169024783
350.4054342470547960.8108684941095920.594565752945204
360.3421280138004180.6842560276008360.657871986199582
370.2671598286081030.5343196572162050.732840171391897
380.2281487473198110.4562974946396220.771851252680189
390.5932263609627950.813547278074410.406773639037205
400.6166266179377660.7667467641244680.383373382062234
410.6580428508224470.6839142983551060.341957149177553
420.5925331929629540.8149336140740910.407466807037046
430.5097066190985290.9805867618029420.490293380901471
440.6552375171752950.689524965649410.344762482824705
450.8116301293853870.3767397412292270.188369870614613
460.7265777176116270.5468445647767460.273422282388373
470.651320903121980.6973581937560410.348679096878021
480.6858036170813010.6283927658373970.314196382918699
490.7329607136381950.5340785727236110.267039286361805
500.660937381311660.678125237376680.33906261868834
510.5240362839699950.951927432060010.475963716030005


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level10.0303030303030303OK
10% type I error level30.090909090909091OK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258566016g30clivhee8slgj/106fb51258565825.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258566016g30clivhee8slgj/106fb51258565825.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258566016g30clivhee8slgj/10xa41258565825.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258566016g30clivhee8slgj/2sexw1258565825.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258566016g30clivhee8slgj/31vp31258565825.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258566016g30clivhee8slgj/7c9we1258565825.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258566016g30clivhee8slgj/8xacr1258565825.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258566016g30clivhee8slgj/9mefi1258565825.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t1258566016g30clivhee8slgj/9mefi1258565825.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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