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*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Fri, 20 Nov 2009 07:06:51 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz.htm/, Retrieved Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:10:05 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
613 0 611 0 594 0 595 0 591 0 589 0 584 0 573 0 567 0 569 0 621 0 629 0 628 0 612 0 595 0 597 0 593 0 590 0 580 0 574 0 573 0 573 0 620 0 626 0 620 0 588 0 566 0 557 0 561 0 549 0 532 0 526 0 511 0 499 0 555 0 565 0 542 0 527 0 510 0 514 0 517 0 508 0 493 0 490 0 469 0 478 0 528 0 534 0 518 1 506 1 502 1 516 1 528 1 533 1 536 1 537 1 524 1 536 1 587 1 597 1 581 1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
WklBe[t] = + 595.594736842105 -26.9736842105263X[t] -2.93684210526333M1[t] -21.4M2[t] -36.8M3[t] -34.4M4[t] -32.1999999999999M5[t] -36.3999999999999M6[t] -45.2M7[t] -50.2M8[t] -61.4M9[t] -59.2M10[t] -7.99999999999997M11[t] + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)595.59473684210517.90812633.258400
X-26.973684210526312.457042-2.16530.0353620.017681
M1-2.9368421052633324.069292-0.1220.9033960.451698
M2-21.425.079628-0.85330.3977410.19887
M3-36.825.079628-1.46730.1488090.074405
M4-34.425.079628-1.37160.1765560.088278
M5-32.199999999999925.079628-1.28390.2053360.102668
M6-36.399999999999925.079628-1.45140.153180.07659
M7-45.225.079628-1.80230.0777860.038893
M8-50.225.079628-2.00160.0509950.025497
M9-61.425.079628-2.44820.0180630.009031
M10-59.225.079628-2.36050.0223620.011181
M11-7.9999999999999725.079628-0.3190.7511230.375561


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.537167659901329
R-squared0.288549094843869
Adjusted R-squared0.110686368554837
F-TEST (value)1.62231345973505
F-TEST (DF numerator)12
F-TEST (DF denominator)48
p-value0.116971788217152
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation39.6543730028053
Sum Squared Residuals75478.5263157894


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1613592.65789473684320.3421052631569
2611574.19473684210536.8052631578947
3594558.79473684210535.2052631578947
4595561.19473684210533.8052631578948
5591563.39473684210527.6052631578948
6589559.19473684210529.8052631578948
7584550.39473684210533.6052631578947
8573545.39473684210527.6052631578947
9567534.19473684210532.8052631578947
10569536.39473684210532.6052631578948
11621587.59473684210533.4052631578948
12629595.59473684210533.4052631578948
13628592.65789473684235.3421052631581
14612574.19473684210537.8052631578947
15595558.79473684210536.2052631578947
16597561.19473684210535.8052631578947
17593563.39473684210529.6052631578947
18590559.19473684210530.8052631578947
19580550.39473684210529.6052631578947
20574545.39473684210528.6052631578947
21573534.19473684210538.8052631578948
22573536.39473684210536.6052631578947
23620587.59473684210532.4052631578947
24626595.59473684210530.4052631578948
25620592.65789473684227.3421052631581
26588574.19473684210513.8052631578947
27566558.7947368421057.20526315789473
28557561.194736842105-4.19473684210529
29561563.394736842105-2.39473684210529
30549559.194736842105-10.1947368421053
31532550.394736842105-18.3947368421052
32526545.394736842105-19.3947368421052
33511534.194736842105-23.1947368421053
34499536.394736842105-37.3947368421053
35555587.594736842105-32.5947368421053
36565595.594736842105-30.5947368421052
37542592.657894736842-50.6578947368419
38527574.194736842105-47.1947368421053
39510558.794736842105-48.7947368421053
40514561.194736842105-47.1947368421053
41517563.394736842105-46.3947368421053
42508559.194736842105-51.1947368421053
43493550.394736842105-57.3947368421052
44490545.394736842105-55.3947368421052
45469534.194736842105-65.1947368421052
46478536.394736842105-58.3947368421052
47528587.594736842105-59.5947368421052
48534595.594736842105-61.5947368421052
49518565.684210526316-47.6842105263156
50506547.221052631579-41.221052631579
51502531.821052631579-29.821052631579
52516534.221052631579-18.221052631579
53528536.421052631579-8.421052631579
54533532.2210526315790.778947368421
55536523.42105263157912.5789473684210
56537518.42105263157918.5789473684210
57524507.22105263157916.7789473684210
58536509.42105263157926.578947368421
59587560.62105263157926.378947368421
60597568.62105263157928.3789473684211
61581565.68421052631615.3157894736844


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
160.005796367046776840.01159273409355370.994203632953223
170.0008448655984879980.001689731196976000.999155134401512
180.0001158555359943660.0002317110719887320.999884144464006
191.85471221270918e-053.70942442541836e-050.999981452877873
202.47079153541971e-064.94158307083941e-060.999997529208465
216.48299488131684e-071.29659897626337e-060.999999351700512
221.43604406882979e-072.87208813765959e-070.999999856395593
232.67486062750629e-085.34972125501259e-080.999999973251394
246.14066803656605e-091.22813360731321e-080.999999993859332
252.26669095644399e-094.53338191288799e-090.99999999773331
261.90142111547462e-063.80284223094923e-060.999998098578885
270.0001254155631886280.0002508311263772560.999874584436811
280.004366502053140350.00873300410628070.99563349794686
290.01686518745420790.03373037490841580.983134812545792
300.06644272328618580.1328854465723720.933557276713814
310.1895690486886510.3791380973773010.81043095131135
320.3023486419523310.6046972839046620.697651358047669
330.486571724434940.973143448869880.51342827556506
340.6402811478958940.7194377042082130.359718852104106
350.6999019500107150.600196099978570.300098049989285
360.7224876021638750.5550247956722510.277512397836125
370.7938849989857510.4122300020284980.206115001014249
380.898456753504250.2030864929915010.101543246495751
390.9409543829526360.1180912340947270.0590456170473637
400.9577525965387540.08449480692249270.0422474034612464
410.96376222159320.07247555681359930.0362377784067996
420.9564564972608270.08708700547834610.0435435027391731
430.9255025530712870.1489948938574270.0744974469287134
440.864721901182340.270556197635320.13527809881766
450.7583393197687840.4833213604624330.241660680231216


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level120.4NOK
5% type I error level140.466666666666667NOK
10% type I error level170.566666666666667NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/10pr4v1258726007.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/10pr4v1258726007.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/1tm6p1258726007.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/1tm6p1258726007.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/2hd4j1258726007.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/2hd4j1258726007.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/3d8bz1258726007.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/3d8bz1258726007.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/45gcw1258726007.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/45gcw1258726007.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/59vuw1258726007.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/59vuw1258726007.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/61ky61258726007.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/61ky61258726007.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/7lyfa1258726007.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/7lyfa1258726007.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/8mjp61258726007.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/8mjp61258726007.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/994791258726007.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258726193a5pn1ys93gmm5rz/994791258726007.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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