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WS 7: model met seizoenaliteit en trend

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:06:03 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z.htm/, Retrieved Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:07:57 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
423 114 427 116 441 153 449 162 452 161 462 149 455 139 461 135 461 130 463 127 462 122 456 117 455 112 456 113 472 149 472 157 471 157 465 147 459 137 465 132 468 125 467 123 463 117 460 114 462 111 461 112 476 144 476 150 471 149 453 134 443 123 442 116 444 117 438 111 427 105 424 102 416 95 406 93 431 124 434 130 418 124 412 115 404 106 409 105 412 105 406 101 398 95 397 93 385 84 390 87 413 116 413 120 401 117 397 109 397 105 409 107 419 109 424 109 428 108 430 107
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = + 210.097277375847 + 2.01219960132561X[t] + 4.33105354315315M1[t] + 1.87434713285987M2[t] -46.1727465198532M3[t] -57.4977706975701M4[t] -59.5154383836216M5[t] -42.8281894982728M6[t] -31.5653398155752M7[t] -20.1732478205662M8[t] -13.195795347148M9[t] -8.60370335213898M10[t] -3.18965207474387M11[t] + 0.244506808967836t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)210.09727737584738.652525.43552e-061e-06
X2.012199601325610.2895946.948400
M14.331053543153158.8889650.48720.6284030.314201
M21.874347132859878.7143920.21510.8306510.415325
M3-46.172746519853210.885047-4.24190.0001065.3e-05
M4-57.497770697570112.353443-4.65442.8e-051.4e-05
M5-59.515438383621612.025613-4.94911e-055e-06
M6-42.828189498272810.093164-4.24330.0001065.3e-05
M7-31.56533981557528.942847-3.52970.0009570.000479
M8-20.17324782056628.700421-2.31870.0249110.012456
M9-13.1957953471488.598451-1.53470.1317150.065857
M10-8.603703352138988.427509-1.02090.3126380.156319
M11-3.189652074743878.253434-0.38650.7009350.350468
t0.2445068089678360.2225281.09880.2775870.138794


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.899625961873798
R-squared0.809326871277356
Adjusted R-squared0.75544098707313
F-TEST (value)15.0192742167882
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)46
p-value2.02726724296554e-12
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation13.0130086667657
Sum Squared Residuals7789.5661498207


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1423444.063592279089-21.0635922790891
2427445.875791880414-18.875791880414
3441472.524590285717-31.5245902857167
4449479.553869328898-30.5538693288981
5452475.768508850489-23.7685088504889
6462468.553869328898-6.55386932889807
7455459.939229807307-4.93922980730737
8461463.527030205982-2.52703020598172
9461460.687991481740.312008518260225
10463459.487991481743.51200851826021
11462455.0855515614756.91444843852534
12456448.4587124385587.54128756144169
13455442.97327478405112.0267252159488
14456442.77327478405113.2267252159486
15472467.4098735880284.5901264119718
16472472.426953029884-0.42695302988406
17471470.65379215280.346207847199586
18465467.463551833861-2.46355183386091
19459458.848912312270.151087687729826
20465460.4245131096194.57548689038106
21468453.56107518272614.4389248172743
22467454.37327478405112.6267252159486
23463447.95863526246115.0413647375394
24460445.35619534219614.6438046578045
25462443.8951568903418.1048431096604
26461443.6951568903417.3048431096602
27476460.28295728901415.7170427109858
28476461.27563752821914.7243624717812
29471457.49027704981013.5097229501905
30453444.2390387242428.76096127575803
31443433.6121996013269.38780039867439
32442431.16340119602310.8365988039768
33444440.3975600797353.60243992026513
34438433.1609612757584.83903872424196
35427426.7463217541670.253678245832703
36424424.143881833902-0.143881833902165
37416414.6340449767441.36595502325616
38406408.397446172767-2.39744617276718
39431422.9730469701168.02695302988407
40434423.96572720932110.0342727906794
41418410.1193687242837.88063127571678
42412408.9413280066693.05867199333065
43404402.3388880864041.66111191359578
44409411.963287289055-2.96328728905545
45412419.185246571442-7.18524657144154
46406415.973046970116-9.97304697011593
47398409.558407448525-11.5584074485252
48397408.968167129586-11.9681671295857
49385395.433931069776-10.4339310697761
50390399.258330272428-9.25833027242754
51413409.8095318671253.19046813287494
52413406.7778129036786.22218709632153
53401398.9680532226182.03194677738203
54397399.80221210633-2.8022121063297
55397403.260770192693-6.26077019269264
56409418.921768199321-9.92176819932071
57419430.168126684358-11.1681266843580
58424435.004725488335-11.0047254883349
59428438.651083973372-10.6510839733722
60430440.073043255758-10.0730432557583


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
170.2038605612617070.4077211225234130.796139438738293
180.9479244875389120.1041510249221760.0520755124610878
190.9932150654153650.01356986916926940.0067849345846347
200.9991783634333360.001643273133328950.000821636566664476
210.9995573502519420.0008852994961161070.000442649748058053
220.9995319689324880.0009360621350248190.000468031067512409
230.9997205033965420.0005589932069158580.000279496603457929
240.9997650791807050.0004698416385890920.000234920819294546
250.999869079630050.0002618407399008870.000130920369950443
260.9999821316852133.57366295740064e-051.78683147870032e-05
270.9999484579693020.000103084061396585.154203069829e-05
280.999947926767190.0001041464656213015.20732328106504e-05
290.999968082477026.38350459611116e-053.19175229805558e-05
300.999995964732878.07053426188669e-064.03526713094334e-06
310.9999959862714148.02745717195955e-064.01372858597977e-06
320.9999962070259887.58594802362209e-063.79297401181105e-06
330.9999971627978195.67440436255619e-062.83720218127809e-06
340.999998976315182.04736963938165e-061.02368481969082e-06
350.9999986956512742.60869745158581e-061.30434872579290e-06
360.999998516423682.96715264074869e-061.48357632037435e-06
370.999998082421853.8351562993739e-061.91757814968695e-06
380.999989548018832.09039623387719e-051.04519811693860e-05
390.9999615555462647.68889074714701e-053.84444537357351e-05
400.9999670871042876.58257914263479e-053.29128957131740e-05
410.999899383291640.0002012334167215520.000100616708360776
420.9999806495109073.87009781866758e-051.93504890933379e-05
430.9996234586389530.0007530827220949440.000376541361047472


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level240.888888888888889NOK
5% type I error level250.925925925925926NOK
10% type I error level250.925925925925926NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/10bw2h1258736758.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/10bw2h1258736758.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/1q6du1258736758.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/1q6du1258736758.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/2s4ap1258736758.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/2s4ap1258736758.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/3w7sa1258736758.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/3w7sa1258736758.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/48fzg1258736758.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/48fzg1258736758.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/565ab1258736758.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/565ab1258736758.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/6r62b1258736758.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/6r62b1258736758.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/7fetx1258736758.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/7fetx1258736758.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/8bhdn1258736758.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/8bhdn1258736758.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/9xdka1258736758.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258736865881l7wctxrwzx3z/9xdka1258736758.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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