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Workshop 7 data 1

*Unverified author*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:42:34 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6.htm/, Retrieved Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:51:40 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
543 0 594 0 611 0 613 0 611 0 594 0 595 0 591 0 589 0 584 0 573 0 567 0 569 0 621 0 629 0 628 0 612 0 595 0 597 0 593 0 590 0 580 0 574 0 573 0 573 0 620 0 626 0 620 0 588 0 566 0 557 0 561 0 549 0 532 0 526 0 511 0 499 0 555 0 565 0 542 0 527 0 510 0 514 0 517 0 508 0 493 0 490 0 469 1 478 1 528 1 534 1 518 1 506 1 502 1 516 1 528 1 533 1 536 1 537 1 524 1 536 1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Yt[t] = + 569.68085106383 -52.1808510638297X[t] + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)569.680851063835.308843107.307900
X-52.180851063829711.081557-4.70881.6e-058e-06


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.522642943159927
R-squared0.273155646034871
Adjusted R-squared0.260836250204954
F-TEST (value)22.1728118656207
F-TEST (DF numerator)1
F-TEST (DF denominator)59
p-value1.55495900285851e-05
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation36.3955931319028
Sum Squared Residuals78153.7127659575


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1543569.680851063832-26.6808510638318
2594569.6808510638324.3191489361702
3611569.6808510638341.3191489361703
4613569.6808510638343.3191489361703
5611569.6808510638341.3191489361703
6594569.6808510638324.3191489361703
7595569.6808510638325.3191489361703
8591569.6808510638321.3191489361703
9589569.6808510638319.3191489361703
10584569.6808510638314.3191489361703
11573569.680851063833.31914893617026
12567569.68085106383-2.68085106382974
13569569.68085106383-0.680851063829743
14621569.6808510638351.3191489361703
15629569.6808510638359.3191489361703
16628569.6808510638358.3191489361703
17612569.6808510638342.3191489361703
18595569.6808510638325.3191489361703
19597569.6808510638327.3191489361703
20593569.6808510638323.3191489361703
21590569.6808510638320.3191489361703
22580569.6808510638310.3191489361703
23574569.680851063834.31914893617026
24573569.680851063833.31914893617026
25573569.680851063833.31914893617026
26620569.6808510638350.3191489361703
27626569.6808510638356.3191489361703
28620569.6808510638350.3191489361703
29588569.6808510638318.3191489361703
30566569.68085106383-3.68085106382974
31557569.68085106383-12.6808510638297
32561569.68085106383-8.68085106382974
33549569.68085106383-20.6808510638297
34532569.68085106383-37.6808510638297
35526569.68085106383-43.6808510638297
36511569.68085106383-58.6808510638297
37499569.68085106383-70.6808510638297
38555569.68085106383-14.6808510638297
39565569.68085106383-4.68085106382974
40542569.68085106383-27.6808510638297
41527569.68085106383-42.6808510638297
42510569.68085106383-59.6808510638297
43514569.68085106383-55.6808510638297
44517569.68085106383-52.6808510638297
45508569.68085106383-61.6808510638297
46493569.68085106383-76.6808510638297
47490569.68085106383-79.6808510638297
48469517.5-48.5
49478517.5-39.5
50528517.510.5
51534517.516.5
52518517.50.500000000000005
53506517.5-11.5
54502517.5-15.5
55516517.5-1.49999999999999
56528517.510.5
57533517.515.5
58536517.518.5
59537517.519.5
60524517.56.5
61536517.518.5


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
50.5501329655007360.8997340689985290.449867034499264
60.3814582538378930.7629165076757860.618541746162107
70.2468132332443250.493626466488650.753186766755675
80.1499671962090820.2999343924181650.850032803790918
90.08658670273705630.1731734054741130.913413297262944
100.04941825167527210.09883650335054410.950581748324728
110.03362186576372100.06724373152744190.96637813423628
120.0260098552725220.0520197105450440.973990144727478
130.01766987521558130.03533975043116260.982330124784419
140.02493706058765780.04987412117531560.975062939412342
150.04558199080464730.09116398160929460.954418009195353
160.06960559149092890.1392111829818580.930394408509071
170.06328616410176650.1265723282035330.936713835898233
180.04555541837543210.09111083675086430.954444581624568
190.03360068505179080.06720137010358160.96639931494821
200.02436486044886280.04872972089772560.975635139551137
210.01767869157411850.03535738314823690.982321308425882
220.01338832976016580.02677665952033150.986611670239834
230.01094389978664380.02188779957328750.989056100213356
240.008975168273456160.01795033654691230.991024831726544
250.007280296016300140.01456059203260030.9927197039837
260.01754039992802610.03508079985605220.982459600071974
270.06899966293985580.1379993258797120.931000337060144
280.2244101087859430.4488202175718870.775589891214057
290.3167310876103180.6334621752206370.683268912389682
300.3928483772368620.7856967544737240.607151622763138
310.4809951318206440.9619902636412880.519004868179356
320.5763105446930190.8473789106139620.423689455306981
330.6673628668231710.6652742663536570.332637133176829
340.7633922155049130.4732155689901740.236607784495087
350.8317159358353880.3365681283292230.168284064164612
360.9015915877033320.1968168245933360.0984084122966678
370.9556939735911530.08861205281769430.0443060264088472
380.9639150761906920.07216984761861560.0360849238093078
390.986095858429380.02780828314123980.0139041415706199
400.9905921839334360.01881563213312740.00940781606656369
410.9916065769248030.01678684615039480.0083934230751974
420.99143341210370.01713317579260070.00856658789630036
430.9904620232842220.01907595343155630.00953797671577814
440.9897779813121450.02044403737570920.0102220186878546
450.988354307546820.02329138490635850.0116456924531792
460.986025613926030.02794877214793760.0139743860739688
470.9821390724424740.03572185511505190.0178609275575259
480.9961602773517760.007679445296447740.00383972264822387
490.9997372081165720.0005255837668555980.000262791883427799
500.999254497363430.001491005273140260.000745502636570132
510.9982694807395150.003461038520970080.00173051926048504
520.9951424706863930.009715058627214290.00485752931360714
530.9937708134467710.01245837310645800.00622918655322901
540.9983546326048710.003290734790257080.00164536739512854
550.9988414557041540.002317088591692180.00115854429584609
560.993892674880760.01221465023847790.00610732511923893


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level70.134615384615385NOK
5% type I error level270.519230769230769NOK
10% type I error level350.673076923076923NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/109vo11258738950.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/109vo11258738950.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/15h461258738950.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/15h461258738950.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/2ncnu1258738950.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/2ncnu1258738950.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/3km1s1258738950.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/3km1s1258738950.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/4r1b31258738950.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/4r1b31258738950.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/5m8xo1258738950.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/5m8xo1258738950.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/6dk9n1258738950.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/6dk9n1258738950.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/7aqhk1258738950.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/7aqhk1258738950.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/8q9911258738950.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/8q9911258738950.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/9te351258738950.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258739488n7gtf948m7i48t6/9te351258738950.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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