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*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:17:33 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y.htm/, Retrieved Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:28:59 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
594 139 595 135 591 130 589 127 584 122 573 117 567 112 569 113 621 149 629 157 628 157 612 147 595 137 597 132 593 125 590 123 580 117 574 114 573 111 573 112 620 144 626 150 620 149 588 134 566 123 557 116 561 117 549 111 532 105 526 102 511 95 499 93 555 124 565 130 542 124 527 115 510 106 514 105 517 105 508 101 493 95 490 93 469 84 478 87 528 116 534 120 518 117 506 109 502 105 516 107 528 109 533 109 536 108 537 107 524 99 536 103 587 131 597 137 581 135 564 124
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = + 176.905248685416 + 3.04049881808095X[t] + 5.55389550870783M1[t] + 17.0753919629505M2[t] + 24.7482898354962M3[t] + 29.669786289739M4[t] + 35.4641806165276M5[t] + 38.9775773071543M6[t] + 47.2367697428724M7[t] + 45.180071397559M8[t] + 1.51650827343334M9[t] -8.72648463505236M10[t] -13.8292874716581M11[t] + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)176.90524868541611.53630415.334700
X3.040498818080950.08724634.849600
M15.553895508707835.0354621.1030.2756620.137831
M217.07539196295055.059443.3750.0014880.000744
M324.74828983549625.080254.87151.3e-056e-06
M429.6697862897395.1254485.78871e-060
M535.46418061652765.2242956.788300
M638.97757730715435.2964157.359200
M747.23676974287245.4985918.590700
M845.1800713975595.4501198.289700
M91.516508273433345.0615160.29960.7657920.382896
M10-8.726484635052365.150959-1.69410.0968550.048427
M11-13.82928747165815.108937-2.70690.0094380.004719


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.985073814323171
R-squared0.970370419665202
Adjusted R-squared0.962805420430785
F-TEST (value)128.271053254117
F-TEST (DF numerator)12
F-TEST (DF denominator)47
p-value0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation7.94448891931475
Sum Squared Residuals2966.40049688840


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1594605.088479907375-11.0884799073753
2595604.447981089295-9.4479810892953
3591596.918384871436-5.91838487143616
4589592.718384871436-3.71838487143619
5584583.310285107820.689714892180035
6573571.6211877080421.37881229195811
7567564.6778860533552.32211394664476
8569565.6616865261233.33831347387716
9621631.456080852911-10.4560808529114
10629645.537078489073-16.5370784890733
11628640.434275652468-12.4342756524676
12612623.858574943316-11.8585749433162
13595599.007482271214-4.00748227121449
14597595.3264846350521.67351536494766
15593581.71589078103111.2841092189686
16590580.5563895991129.44361040088764
17580568.10779101741511.8922089825848
18574562.49969125379911.5003087462010
19573561.63738723527411.3626127647257
20573562.62118770804210.3788122919581
21620616.2535867625073.74641323749335
22626624.2535867625071.74641323749335
23620616.110285107823.88971489218002
24588584.3320903082643.6679096917362
25566556.4404988180819.55950118191883
26557546.67850354575710.3214964542429
27561557.3919002363843.60809976361619
28549544.0704037821414.92959621785904
29532531.6218052004440.378194799556179
30526526.013705436828-0.0137054368276273
31511512.989406145979-1.98940614597905
32499504.851710164504-5.85171016450381
33555555.443610400888-0.443610400887622
34565563.4436104008881.55638959911237
35542540.0978146557961.90218534420379
36527526.5626127647260.43738723527428
37510504.7520189107055.247981089295
38514513.2330165468670.766983453133338
39517520.905914419412-3.9059144194124
40508513.665415601331-5.66541560133144
41493501.216817019634-8.2168170196343
42490498.649216074099-8.64921607409907
43469479.543919147089-10.5439191470886
44478486.608717256018-8.6087172560181
45528531.11961985624-3.11961985624001
46534533.0386222200780.961377779921877
47518518.81432292923-0.814322929229542
48506508.31961985624-2.31961985624002
49502501.7115200926240.288479907375944
50516519.314014183029-3.31401418302857
51528533.067909691736-5.0679096917362
52533537.989406145979-4.98940614597904
53536540.743301654687-4.74330165468667
54537541.216199527232-4.21619952723238
55524525.151401418303-1.15140141830285
56536535.2566983453130.743301654686659
57587576.72710212745410.2728978725457
58597584.72710212745412.2728978725457
59581573.5433016546877.45669834531333
60564553.92710212745410.0728978725457


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
160.0008606974095109950.001721394819021990.99913930259049
170.03605285310486040.07210570620972090.96394714689514
180.01584058631071760.03168117262143530.984159413689282
190.05348527825213010.1069705565042600.94651472174787
200.05774616666128510.1154923333225700.942253833338715
210.03472210193322660.06944420386645320.965277898066773
220.04923817269622480.09847634539244970.950761827303775
230.1657108133033240.3314216266066480.834289186696676
240.8694870356717140.2610259286565720.130512964328286
250.9538015748006540.09239685039869230.0461984251993462
260.98836105555230.02327788889539790.0116389444476989
270.9948722686282260.01025546274354840.00512773137177421
280.9990834475552120.001833104889576130.000916552444788067
290.99988979388360.0002204122328014280.000110206116400714
300.999969358225586.12835488412234e-053.06417744206117e-05
310.9999778400339394.43199321225238e-052.21599660612619e-05
320.9999802759446663.94481106685859e-051.97240553342929e-05
330.9999678898469786.42203060430797e-053.21101530215398e-05
340.9999762341628664.75316742689485e-052.37658371344742e-05
350.9999162321557370.0001675356885254628.37678442627312e-05
360.999790541901540.0004189161969196730.000209458098459837
370.9996341981418870.0007316037162269910.000365801858113495
380.99956838731760.0008632253647994760.000431612682399738
390.9992304126673150.001539174665370520.00076958733268526
400.998853110598750.002293778802500470.00114688940125023
410.9986205517147810.002758896570438080.00137944828521904
420.99850152289220.002996954215597410.00149847710779870
430.9938473177494440.01230536450111170.00615268225055586
440.975878684702410.04824263059518160.0241213152975908


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level160.551724137931034NOK
5% type I error level210.724137931034483NOK
10% type I error level250.862068965517241NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/10eqyc1258741048.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/10eqyc1258741048.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/1vi1n1258741048.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/1vi1n1258741048.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/22ib81258741048.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/22ib81258741048.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/39q6g1258741048.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/39q6g1258741048.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/4etmq1258741048.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/4etmq1258741048.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/5zmmr1258741048.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/5zmmr1258741048.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/6pwjk1258741048.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/6pwjk1258741048.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/7l2p61258741048.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/7l2p61258741048.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/8ieu91258741048.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/8ieu91258741048.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/9j1ib1258741048.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258741728jv37hpc280dbg3y/9j1ib1258741048.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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