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Model 5

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Sat, 21 Nov 2009 06:34:09 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099.htm/, Retrieved Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:35:06 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
8.5 99.2 8.6 116.5 8.5 98.4 8.2 90.6 8.1 130.5 7.9 107.4 8.6 106 8.7 196.5 8.7 107.8 8.5 90.5 8.4 123.8 8.5 114.7 8.7 115.3 8.7 197 8.6 88.4 8.5 93.8 8.3 111.3 8 105.9 8.2 123.6 8.1 171 8.1 97 8 99.2 7.9 126.6 7.9 103.4 8 121.3 8 129.6 7.9 110.8 8 98.9 7.7 122.8 7.2 120.9 7.5 133.1 7.3 203.1 7 110.2 7 119.5 7 135.1 7.2 113.9 7.3 137.4 7.1 157.1 6.8 126.4 6.4 112.2 6.1 128.8 6.5 136.8 7.7 156.5 7.9 215.2 7.5 146.7 6.9 130.8 6.6 133.1 6.9 153.4 7.7 159.9 8 174.6 8 145 7.7 112.9 7.3 137.8 7.4 150.6 8.1 162.1 8.3 226.4
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Yt-2[t] = + 54.4478692187951 + 4.89094083246159X[t] + 8.17504404347599M1[t] + 35.332449512388M2[t] -6.22759448550611M3[t] -18.3563632168033M4[t] + 6.48832450184722M5[t] + 4.07046168730386M6[t] + 11.9911214733882M7[t] + 76.9885269423002M8[t] -3.9423174731238M9[t] -9.25381268360943M10[t] + 10.0205980226587M11[t] + 0.986956897789507t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)54.447869218795135.3694721.53940.1312070.065603
X4.890940832461594.1043811.19160.2400930.120047
M18.175044043475999.2100870.88760.3798010.1899
M235.3324495123889.2421633.8230.000430.000215
M3-6.227594485506119.185475-0.6780.5015010.25075
M4-18.35636321680339.127969-2.0110.0507730.025386
M56.488324501847229.1407530.70980.4817360.240868
M64.070461687303869.1655520.44410.6592470.329623
M711.99112147338829.2821581.29180.2034740.101737
M876.98852694230029.3388178.243900
M9-3.94231747312389.630967-0.40930.6843720.342186
M10-9.253812683609439.620139-0.96190.3415950.170797
M1110.02059802265879.6400611.03950.3045310.152266
t0.9869568977895070.1566886.298900


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.928748055628976
R-squared0.862572950834603
Adjusted R-squared0.820036007045314
F-TEST (value)20.2782069889044
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)42
p-value5.19584375524573e-14
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation13.5936681097854
Sum Squared Residuals7761.08813251787


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
199.2105.182867235984-5.98286723598409
2116.5133.816323685932-17.3163236859318
398.492.7541425025815.64585749741893
490.680.145048419334910.4549515806651
5130.5105.48759895252925.0124010474712
6107.4103.0785048692834.32149513071737
7106115.409780135880-9.40978013587954
8196.5181.88323658582714.6167634141728
9107.8101.9393490681935.86065093180723
1090.596.6366225890043-6.13662258900427
11123.8116.4088961098167.39110389018417
12114.7107.8643490681936.83565093180724
13115.3118.004538175951-2.70453817595057
14197146.14890054265250.8510994573479
1588.4105.086719359301-16.6867193593013
1693.893.45581344254750.344186557452507
17111.3118.309269892495-7.0092698924952
18105.9115.411081726003-9.51108172600286
19123.6125.296886576369-1.696886576369
20171190.792154859824-19.7921548598244
2197110.84826734219-13.8482673421899
2299.2106.034634946248-6.8346349462476
23126.6125.8069084670590.793091532940871
24103.4116.77326734219-13.3732673421899
25121.3126.424362366702-5.12436236670156
26129.6154.568724733403-24.9687247334031
27110.8113.506543550052-2.70654355005232
2898.9102.853825799791-3.95382579979078
29122.8127.218188166492-4.41818816649232
30120.9123.341811833508-2.44181183350767
31133.1133.71671076712-0.616710767119976
32203.1198.7228849673294.37711503267079
33110.2117.311715199956-7.11171519995622
34119.5112.9871768872606.5128231127399
35135.1133.2485444913181.85145550868221
36113.9125.193091532941-11.2930915329409
37137.4134.8441865574532.55581344254747
38157.1162.010360757662-4.91036075766174
39126.4119.9699914078196.43000859218135
40112.2106.8718032413265.32819675867367
41128.8131.236165608028-2.43616560802787
42136.8131.7616360242595.03836397574135
43156.5146.5383817070869.96161829291363
44215.2213.5009322402801.69906775971974
45146.7131.60066838966115.0993316103389
46130.8124.3415655774886.45843442251198
47133.1143.135650931807-10.0356509318072
48153.4135.56929205667617.8307079433235
49159.9148.64404566391111.2559543360887
50174.6178.255690280351-3.65569028035125
51145137.6826031802477.31739681975335
52112.9125.073509097000-12.1735090970005
53137.8148.948777380456-11.1487773804558
54150.6148.0069655469482.59303445305181
55162.1160.3382408135451.76175918645488
56226.4227.300791346739-0.900791346738928


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
170.9999814490152073.71019695860039e-051.85509847930020e-05
180.9999681344424276.37311151467366e-053.18655575733683e-05
190.9999332853009830.0001334293980331996.67146990165996e-05
200.999959186190298.16276194210365e-054.08138097105183e-05
210.9998985675417070.0002028649165856990.000101432458292849
220.999746213726320.0005075725473595650.000253786273679782
230.9996621281601010.0006757436797982750.000337871839899138
240.9992531751716660.001493649656669000.000746824828334502
250.9984922508649360.003015498270128460.00150774913506423
260.9990482124238940.001903575152211020.00095178757610551
270.998389362971290.003221274057421730.00161063702871087
280.9964389916434830.00712201671303370.00356100835651685
290.9951762910795080.009647417840983730.00482370892049187
300.9907784570306040.01844308593879180.00922154296939588
310.9836151373303430.03276972533931380.0163848626696569
320.9721945347290240.05561093054195260.0278054652709763
330.9804365442490.03912691150200010.0195634557510000
340.964788856646280.07042228670744110.0352111433537206
350.9921792504992020.01564149900159540.00782074950079772
360.9936352187462450.01272956250751060.00636478125375532
370.9908052303979720.0183895392040570.0091947696020285
380.9795663082085430.0408673835829140.020433691791457
390.9771707417514910.04565851649701750.0228292582485088


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level130.565217391304348NOK
5% type I error level210.91304347826087NOK
10% type I error level231NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/10ndal1258810444.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/10ndal1258810444.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/1v32f1258810444.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/1v32f1258810444.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/2dou41258810444.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/2dou41258810444.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/3559v1258810444.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/3559v1258810444.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/4difz1258810444.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/4difz1258810444.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/5xsnv1258810444.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/5xsnv1258810444.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/6ukbo1258810444.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/6ukbo1258810444.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/7wwn61258810444.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/7wwn61258810444.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/8koii1258810444.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/8koii1258810444.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/92t001258810444.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/21/t1258810494b8aete8y6ux8099/92t001258810444.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 2 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 2 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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