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*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Sun, 22 Nov 2009 10:14:11 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/22/t12589100922kzxcfpv8szfn6h.htm/, Retrieved Sun, 22 Nov 2009 18:15:04 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/22/t12589100922kzxcfpv8szfn6h.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
267413 0 262813 269645 267366 0 267413 267037 264777 0 267366 258113 258863 0 264777 262813 254844 0 258863 267413 254868 0 254844 267366 277267 0 254868 264777 285351 0 277267 258863 286602 0 285351 254844 283042 0 286602 254868 276687 0 283042 277267 277915 0 276687 285351 277128 0 277915 286602 277103 0 277128 283042 275037 0 277103 276687 270150 0 275037 277915 267140 0 270150 277128 264993 0 267140 277103 287259 0 264993 275037 291186 0 287259 270150 292300 0 291186 267140 288186 0 292300 264993 281477 0 288186 287259 282656 0 281477 291186 280190 0 282656 292300 280408 0 280190 288186 276836 0 280408 281477 275216 0 276836 282656 274352 0 275216 280190 271311 0 274352 280408 289802 0 271311 276836 290726 0 289802 275216 292300 0 290726 274352 278506 0 292300 271311 269826 0 278506 289802 265861 0 269826 290726 269034 0 265861 292300 264176 0 269034 278506 255198 0 264176 269826 253353 0 255198 265861 246057 0 253353 269034 235372 0 246057 264176 258556 0 235372 etc...
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
y[t] = + 20183.8908363885 + 4420.45606204759x[t] + 1.07278534683268y1[t] -0.128942160563676y4[t] -431.278490014834M1[t] -4299.96610657626M2[t] -7684.23161222854M3[t] -5830.93324768869M4[t] -8608.0669432388M5[t] -4351.97049942333M6[t] + 18422.3835583305M7[t] -2290.05787685714M8[t] -6937.72173064447M9[t] -11912.1094256655M10[t] -8764.12912603719M11[t] -67.3332347975218t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)20183.89083638859546.4364812.11430.0393050.019652
x4420.456062047591933.2546252.28650.0263250.013163
y11.072785346832680.07385114.526400
y4-0.1289421605636760.078557-1.64140.1067520.053376
M1-431.2784900148342018.035954-0.21370.8316070.415804
M2-4299.966106576262159.582509-1.99110.0517350.025867
M3-7684.231612228542360.116241-3.25590.0019920.000996
M4-5830.933247688692160.531412-2.69880.0093630.004681
M5-8608.06694323882059.70848-4.17930.0001125.6e-05
M6-4351.970499423332020.839733-2.15350.0359330.017967
M718422.38355833052046.6702799.001100
M8-2290.057876857142684.606209-0.8530.3975530.198777
M9-6937.721730644473251.784405-2.13350.037620.01881
M10-11912.10942566553395.39403-3.50830.0009390.00047
M11-8764.129126037192182.651035-4.01540.0001929.6e-05
t-67.333234797521833.724977-1.99650.0511230.025561


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.985621546213983
R-squared0.971449832361242
Adjusted R-squared0.963214207080831
F-TEST (value)117.957021997093
F-TEST (DF numerator)15
F-TEST (DF denominator)52
p-value0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation3303.31748786203
Sum Squared Residuals567419134.131984


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1267413266858.605583522554.394416478448
2267366268193.678482343-827.678482342807
3264777265842.338671462-1065.33867146211
4258863264244.834383605-5381.83438360534
5254844254462.780973496381.219026503680
6254868254346.08015514521.919844859791
7277267277412.67908012-145.679080119890
8285351281424.7873314143926.21266858648
9286602285900.405529929701.594470070513
10283042282197.644457145844.35554285488
11276687278571.000232786-1884.00023278576
12277915279407.876818907-1492.87681890696
13277128280065.33885714-2937.33885713999
14277103275744.0700294301358.92997056959
15275037273085.0790856921951.92091430805
16270150272496.328715706-2346.32871570576
17267140264510.6372757502629.36272424957
18264993265473.540144816-480.54014481609
19287259286143.6853318471115.31466815279
20291186289880.6895331131305.31046688680
21292300289766.6364048372533.36359516304
22288186286196.8371701201989.16282987976
23281477281993.019170971-516.019170970558
24282656282986.142305776-330.142305776204
25280190283608.702938012-3418.70293801165
26280408277557.6614699222850.33853007773
27276836275205.0028903041630.99710969631
28275216273006.9559538552209.04404614490
29274352268742.5481295895609.45187041144
30271311271976.31540794-665.315407940186
31289802291881.577388712-2079.57738871178
32290726291147.562867123-421.562867122867
33292300287535.2254657384764.77453426157
34278506284574.181782109-6068.18178210868
35269826270472.558281747-646.558281746506
36265861269738.434806118-3877.43480611765
37269034264783.2742203864250.72577961351
38264176266029.829437343-1853.82943734299
39255198258485.857435673-3287.85743567272
40253353251151.6113881862201.38861181379
41246057245918.722017464138.277982536256
42235372242906.844352009-7534.84435200876
43258556255308.7964615993247.20353840141
44260993259638.3755588221354.62444117772
45254663258478.518363941-3815.51836394125
46250643248023.8131742952619.18682570528
47243422243802.46809435-380.468094349849
48247105244438.4489508172666.55104918297
49248541248707.109534758-166.109534757523
50245039246829.955926916-1790.95592691628
51237080240552.554243289-3472.55424328873
52237085233325.3268202343759.67317976628
53225554230301.062874051-4747.06287405083
54226839222571.0936950354267.9063049649
55247934247682.894344598251.105655402272
56248333253953.337917293-5620.33791729274
57246969251153.214235554-4184.21423555387
58245098244482.523416331615.476583668764
59246263242835.9542201473427.04577985268
60255765252731.0971183823033.90288161785
61264319262601.9688661831717.03113381720
62268347268083.804654045263.19534595475
63273046268803.1676735814242.8323264192
64273963274404.942738414-441.942738413858
65267430271441.24872965-4011.24872965012
66271993268102.1262450603890.87375494034
67292710295098.367393125-2388.3673931248
68295881296425.246792235-544.246792235398


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
190.01709145265085570.03418290530171140.982908547349144
200.07068442240377050.1413688448075410.92931557759623
210.04299045107581820.08598090215163640.957009548924182
220.02079522438275090.04159044876550180.97920477561725
230.008437689527833310.01687537905566660.991562310472167
240.002949485004738890.005898970009477770.997050514995261
250.003337565491164530.006675130982329060.996662434508836
260.001372735977562690.002745471955125390.998627264022437
270.0005403426918157250.001080685383631450.999459657308184
280.000856138796150010.001712277592300020.99914386120385
290.002191494557094730.004382989114189460.997808505442905
300.0009640583878172180.001928116775634440.999035941612183
310.0008160634362171510.001632126872434300.999183936563783
320.002675202035520880.005350404071041760.997324797964479
330.007098514407691930.01419702881538390.992901485592308
340.09380213567359130.1876042713471830.906197864326409
350.05938671155592810.1187734231118560.940613288444072
360.05914109398520050.1182821879704010.9408589060148
370.08501383598672990.1700276719734600.91498616401327
380.0573687825660790.1147375651321580.94263121743392
390.04281961212404150.0856392242480830.957180387875958
400.05143719279094420.1028743855818880.948562807209056
410.07163672054603330.1432734410920670.928363279453967
420.3757749022453280.7515498044906560.624225097754672
430.4902087694558470.9804175389116940.509791230544153
440.6692124215387880.6615751569224240.330787578461212
450.6217423693560110.7565152612879780.378257630643989
460.6875288309315240.6249423381369520.312471169068476
470.5599213349642950.880157330071410.440078665035705
480.5459842993591960.9080314012816080.454015700640804
490.5092960137613240.9814079724773510.490703986238676


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level90.290322580645161NOK
5% type I error level130.419354838709677NOK
10% type I error level150.483870967741935NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/22/t12589100922kzxcfpv8szfn6h/10101w1258910047.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/22/t12589100922kzxcfpv8szfn6h/27zxl1258910047.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/22/t12589100922kzxcfpv8szfn6h/3swzp1258910047.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/22/t12589100922kzxcfpv8szfn6h/4urkb1258910047.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/22/t12589100922kzxcfpv8szfn6h/6dm2g1258910047.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/22/t12589100922kzxcfpv8szfn6h/7oucf1258910047.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/22/t12589100922kzxcfpv8szfn6h/81cvl1258910047.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/22/t12589100922kzxcfpv8szfn6h/81cvl1258910047.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/22/t12589100922kzxcfpv8szfn6h/9b8031258910047.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/22/t12589100922kzxcfpv8szfn6h/9b8031258910047.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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