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*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Mon, 23 Nov 2009 12:51:18 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93.htm/, Retrieved Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:53:09 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
5560 543 3922 594 3759 611 4138 613 4634 611 3996 594 4308 595 4143 591 4429 589 5219 584 4929 573 5755 567 5592 569 4163 621 4962 629 5208 628 4755 612 4491 595 5732 597 5731 593 5040 590 6102 580 4904 574 5369 573 5578 573 4619 620 4731 626 5011 620 5299 588 4146 566 4625 557 4736 561 4219 549 5116 532 4205 526 4121 511 5103 499 4300 555 4578 565 3809 542 5526 527 4247 510 3830 514 4394 517 4826 508 4409 493 4569 490 4106 469 4794 478 3914 528 3793 534 4405 518 4022 506 4100 502 4788 516 3163 528 3585 533 3903 536 4178 537 3863 524 4187 536
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = + 2496.36706778836 + 4.58362496986466X[t] + 435.089337369235M1[t] -787.43485719658M2[t] -641.815711028509M3[t] -444.1745904089M4[t] -32.8815449881847M5[t] -605.788499567469M6[t] -148.483978610345M7[t] -374.062732659247M8[t] -360.706286901016M9[t] + 217.334833718593M10[t] -144.841820547284M11[t] -7.70522088479975t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)2496.367067788361889.4622051.32120.1928290.096415
X4.583624969864663.164461.44850.1541250.077062
M1435.089337369235332.0436351.31030.1964490.098225
M2-787.43485719658368.108342-2.13910.0376490.018825
M3-641.815711028509380.55418-1.68650.0983220.049161
M4-444.1745904089371.634999-1.19520.2380090.119004
M5-32.8815449881847358.190362-0.09180.9272480.463624
M6-605.788499567469349.678934-1.73240.0897580.044879
M7-148.483978610345351.348796-0.42260.6745060.337253
M8-374.062732659247353.407878-1.05840.2952620.147631
M9-360.706286901016351.751102-1.02550.3103960.155198
M10217.334833718593348.3214610.62390.5356780.267839
M11-144.841820547284347.195312-0.41720.6784490.339224
t-7.705220884799756.74511-1.14230.2590980.129549


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.645003110142727
R-squared0.41602901209379
Adjusted R-squared0.25450512182186
F-TEST (value)2.57565002547544
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)47
p-value0.00894250554016951
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation546.868450688732
Sum Squared Residuals14056059.8108586


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
155605412.65954290931147.340457090689
239224416.19500092179-494.195000921786
337594632.03055069276-873.030550692758
441384831.1337003673-693.133700367297
546345225.55427496348-591.554274963483
639964567.0204750117-571.020475011699
743085021.20340005389-713.203400053889
841434769.58492524073-626.584925240728
944294766.06890017443-337.06890017443
1052195313.48667505992-94.486675059916
1149294893.1849252407335.815074759272
1257555002.81977508402752.180224915976
1355925439.37114150819152.628858491811
1441634447.49022449054-284.490224490536
1549624622.07314953272339.926850467275
1652084807.42542429767400.574575702331
1747555137.67524931575-382.675249315750
1844914479.1414493639711.8585506360330
1957324937.90799937602794.09200062398
2057314686.289524562861044.71047543714
2150404678.1898745267361.810125473302
2261025202.68952456286899.31047543714
2349044805.30589959398.6941004070043
2453694937.85887428562431.141125714385
2555785365.24299077005212.757009229950
2646194350.44394890307268.556051096926
2747314515.85962400553215.140375994466
2850114678.29377392115332.706226078845
2952994935.2055994214363.794400578598
3041464253.75367462029-107.753674620295
3146254662.10034996384-37.1003499638377
3247364447.15087490959288.849125090406
3342194397.79860014465-178.798600144650
3451164890.21287539176225.787124608240
3542054492.82925042189-287.829250421895
3641214561.21147553641-440.211475536409
3751034933.59209238247169.407907617531
3843003960.04567524427339.954324755726
3945784143.79585022619434.204149773808
4038094228.30837565411-419.308375654114
4155264563.14182564206962.85817435794
4242473904.60802569028342.391974309724
4338304372.54182564206-542.54182564206
4443944153.00872561795240.991274382048
4548264117.4073257626708.592674237398
4644094618.98885094944-209.988850949441
4745694235.35610088917333.64389911083
4841064276.2365761845-170.236576184496
4947944744.8733173977149.1266826022865
5039143743.82515044033170.174849559669
5137933909.24082554279-116.240825542791
5244054025.83872575977379.161274240235
5340224374.42305065731-352.423050657305
5441003775.47637531376324.523624686237
5547884289.24642496419498.753575035807
5631634110.96594966887-947.965949668866
5735854139.53529939162-554.535299391621
5839034723.62207403602-820.622074036024
5941784358.32382385521-180.323823855212
6038634435.87329890946-572.873298909455
6141874918.26091503227-731.260915032267


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
170.6231880277812220.7536239444375560.376811972218778
180.4722611096834140.9445222193668270.527738890316586
190.5224775754805750.955044849038850.477522424519425
200.575474503562660.849050992874680.42452549643734
210.477984430230250.955968860460500.52201556976975
220.4321910463409280.8643820926818560.567808953659072
230.4996517885388590.9993035770777190.500348211461141
240.653912759523120.692174480953760.34608724047688
250.6769202330901210.6461595338197590.323079766909879
260.581769991099670.836460017800660.41823000890033
270.5087468050132210.9825063899735580.491253194986779
280.4773007071270240.9546014142540480.522699292872976
290.3895454545732310.7790909091464620.610454545426769
300.3795338899411080.7590677798822160.620466110058892
310.3389164010102360.6778328020204710.661083598989764
320.3036343105264490.6072686210528980.696365689473551
330.2595349717467020.5190699434934030.740465028253299
340.2203961777890270.4407923555780550.779603822210972
350.2073941118287660.4147882236575320.792605888171234
360.2129745167356240.4259490334712470.787025483264376
370.1486300630873960.2972601261747910.851369936912604
380.1153466621101170.2306933242202340.884653337889883
390.09359545954162840.1871909190832570.906404540458372
400.1190661485012010.2381322970024020.880933851498799
410.3019900110598500.6039800221197010.69800998894015
420.2118968666166860.4237937332333730.788103133383314
430.9743901307541770.05121973849164560.0256098692458228
440.9273718178904680.1452563642190640.0726281821095319


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level00OK
10% type I error level10.0357142857142857OK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/105u7c1259005873.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/105u7c1259005873.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/1el5q1259005873.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/1el5q1259005873.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/2qxgu1259005873.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/2qxgu1259005873.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/3o38s1259005873.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/3o38s1259005873.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/4p0g61259005873.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/4p0g61259005873.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/5mjuz1259005873.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/5mjuz1259005873.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/6prwa1259005873.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/6prwa1259005873.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/7qluo1259005873.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/7qluo1259005873.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/82hp31259005873.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/82hp31259005873.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/9q7021259005873.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/23/t1259005977kju3s2zolg44k93/9q7021259005873.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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