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REVIEW 7

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:27:08 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn.htm/, Retrieved Tue, 24 Nov 2009 21:28:23 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
825 444 696 627 677 387 825 696 656 327 677 825 785 448 656 677 412 225 785 656 352 182 412 785 839 460 352 412 729 411 839 352 696 342 729 839 641 361 696 729 695 377 641 696 638 331 695 641 762 428 638 695 635 340 762 638 721 352 635 762 854 461 721 635 418 221 854 721 367 198 418 854 824 422 367 418 687 329 824 367 601 320 687 824 676 375 601 687 740 364 676 601 691 351 740 676 683 380 691 740 594 319 683 691 729 322 594 683 731 386 729 594 386 221 731 729 331 187 386 731 707 344 331 386 715 342 707 331 657 365 715 707 653 313 657 715 642 356 653 657 643 337 642 653 718 389 643 642 654 326 718 643 632 343 654 718 731 357 632 654 392 220 731 632 344 228 392 731 792 391 344 392 852 425 792 344 649 332 852 792 629 298 649 852 685 360 629 649 617 326 685 629 715 325 617 685 715 393 715 617 629 301 715 715 916 426 629 715 531 265 916 629 357 210 531 916 917 429 357 531 828 440 917 357 708 357 828 917 858 431 708 828
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = + 104.978382790316 + 1.33316588097806X[t] -0.0404063636190839`Y-1`[t] + 0.149771378690737`Y-2`[t] + 15.9683744756981M1[t] -10.3645147838434M2[t] + 23.2324200251082M3[t] + 50.5247874887435M4[t] -76.4952318017308M5[t] -150.366438656282M6[t] + 89.9676465933025M7[t] + 92.380418573932M8[t] -18.7460270834543M9[t] -2.90954882184988M10[t] + 4.9443989866286M11[t] + 0.819374350182732t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)104.97838279031695.5822051.09830.2783280.139164
X1.333165880978060.1687937.898200
`Y-1`-0.04040636361908390.112674-0.35860.7216810.36084
`Y-2`0.1497713786907370.1052951.42240.1622970.081149
M115.968374475698127.8456930.57350.5693920.284696
M2-10.364514783843425.659976-0.40390.6883230.344161
M323.232420025108227.4161240.84740.4015750.200788
M450.524787488743528.8060081.7540.0867310.043366
M5-76.495231801730835.512308-2.1540.0370210.01851
M6-150.36643865628244.611142-3.37060.0016180.000809
M789.967646593302552.1172411.72630.0916520.045826
M892.38041857393244.5927462.07160.0444770.022238
M9-18.746027083454330.517866-0.61430.5423540.271177
M10-2.9095488218498828.604565-0.10170.9194660.459733
M114.944398986628627.5155370.17970.8582560.429128
t0.8193743501827320.3009932.72220.00940.0047


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.975945174039772
R-squared0.95246898273152
Adjusted R-squared0.935493619421349
F-TEST (value)56.1089011957001
F-TEST (DF numerator)15
F-TEST (DF denominator)42
p-value0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation37.3795930765591
Sum Squared Residuals58683.827099904


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1825779.47560813066845.5243918693321
2677683.093442228357-6.0934422283567
3656662.820448195537-6.82044819553671
4785830.927631197472-45.9276311974719
5412399.07337493970512.9266250602948
6352303.08749103430348.9125089656967
7839861.420723111472-22.4207231114720
8729770.663559470421-41.6635594704212
9696645.7514037962250.2485962037806
10641672.595966490038-31.5959664900384
11695699.879837246604-4.87983724660396
12638624.00981262174613.9901873782538
13762780.505469078087-18.5054690780867
14635624.1259989685210.8740010314800
15721698.24355783666622.7564421633339
16854849.1744683121284.82553168787193
17418410.5203041431677.47969585683312
18367344.34242428009122.6575757199086
19824820.8854446543573.11455534564345
20687674.0291155670612.9708844329398
21601625.704743208535-24.7047432085354
22676698.640987664726-22.6409876647261
23740676.73866929379463.261330706206
24691663.92933433481727.0706656651828
25683730.944173762604-47.9441737626042
26594617.09199346669-23.0919934666902
27729657.90579560133171.0942043986688
28731752.555642005693-21.5556420056934
29386426.520950100033-40.5209501000329
30331322.3812158483768.6187841516245
31707723.392943112444-16.3929431124440
32715700.52853913253414.4714608674659
33657676.87507056659-19.8750705665903
34653627.74803748695125.2519625130490
35642685.222378018083-43.2223780180825
36643655.6125861281-12.6125861281004
37718740.037069235623-22.0370692356233
38654627.65339793190626.3466020680939
39632698.552387741094-66.5523877410941
40731736.632023652018-5.63202365201774
41392420.492452688246-28.4924526882461
42344386.631070988954-42.6310709889543
43792796.257577265702-4.25757726570202
44852819.52628647126332.4737135287366
45649649.907984069405-0.907984069405233
46629638.424971264057-9.42497126405656
47685700.15911544152-15.1591154415196
48617645.448266915336-28.4482669153362
49715672.03767979301842.962320206982
50715723.035167404527-8.03516740452706
51629649.477810625372-20.4778106253720
52916847.71023483268968.289765167311
53531482.39291812884948.6070818711511
54357394.557797848276-37.5577978482756
55917877.04331185602639.9566881439745
56828846.252499358721-18.2524993587212
57708712.76079835925-4.76079835924968
58858819.59003709422838.4099629057722


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
190.008675816114451930.01735163222890390.991324183885548
200.02224019351983850.0444803870396770.977759806480161
210.1506273062272190.3012546124544380.849372693772781
220.1210003866175160.2420007732350320.878999613382484
230.1004465550468710.2008931100937420.899553444953129
240.07982095230852420.1596419046170480.920179047691476
250.0829341591972780.1658683183945560.917065840802722
260.05175589662619640.1035117932523930.948244103373804
270.1400352093418510.2800704186837020.85996479065815
280.1879957602673490.3759915205346990.81200423973265
290.1335333592375550.2670667184751100.866466640762445
300.2964899361398780.5929798722797550.703510063860122
310.2124962448862230.4249924897724460.787503755113777
320.2144044267381840.4288088534763670.785595573261817
330.2460059728749330.4920119457498660.753994027125067
340.2830631153930040.5661262307860080.716936884606996
350.2478469520119140.4956939040238290.752153047988086
360.1922815236971000.3845630473941990.8077184763029
370.1699094819748960.3398189639497910.830090518025104
380.2308858963871560.4617717927743120.769114103612844
390.3570622692761440.7141245385522880.642937730723856


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level20.0952380952380952NOK
10% type I error level20.0952380952380952OK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/10avos1259094423.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/10avos1259094423.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/1lly71259094423.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/1lly71259094423.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/2368d1259094423.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/2368d1259094423.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/335281259094423.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/335281259094423.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/4wsu71259094423.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/4wsu71259094423.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/5kqvy1259094423.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/5kqvy1259094423.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/6v34j1259094423.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/6v34j1259094423.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/7rnde1259094423.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/7rnde1259094423.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/85wma1259094423.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/85wma1259094423.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/9j1ub1259094423.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/24/t1259094492wgpqtfjoo482kcn/9j1ub1259094423.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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