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Paper Forecasting ARIMA

*The author of this computation has been verified*

R Software Module: /rwasp_arimaforecasting.wasp (opens new window with default values)

Title produced by software: ARIMA Forecasting

Date of computation: Sat, 11 Dec 2010 12:50:43 +0000

Cite this page as follows:

Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/11/t12920717117gjyrvafgdop10q.htm/, Retrieved Sat, 11 Dec 2010 13:48:32 +0100

BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:

@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/11/t12920717117gjyrvafgdop10q.htm/},
    year = {2010},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2010},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}

Original text written by user:

IsPrivate?

No (this computation is public)

User-defined keywords:

Dataseries X:

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17848 19592 21092 20899 25890 24965 22225 20977 22897 22785 22769 19637 20203 20450 23083 21738 26766 25280 22574 22729 21378 22902 24989 21116 15169 15846 20927 18273 22538 15596 14034 11366 14861 15149 13577 13026 13190 13196 15826 14733 16307 15703 14589 12043 15057 14053 12698 10888 10045 11549 13767 12434 13116 14211 12266 12602 15714 13742 12745 10491 10057 10900 11771 11992 11933 14504 11727 11477 13578 11555 11846 11397 10066 10269 14279 13870 13695 14420 11424 9704 12464 14301 13464 9893 11572 12380 16692 16052 16459 14761 13654 13480 18068 16560 14530 10650 11651 13735 13360 17818 20613 16231 13862 12004 17734 15034 12609 12320 10833 11350 13648 14890 16325 18045 15616 11926 16855 15083 12520 12355

Output produced by software:

Summary of computational transaction
Raw Input	view raw input (R code)
Raw Output	view raw output of R engine
Computing time	2 seconds
R Server	'RServer@AstonUniversity' @ vre.aston.ac.uk

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[108])
96	10650	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
97	11651	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
98	13735	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
99	13360	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
100	17818	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
101	20613	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
102	16231	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
103	13862	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
104	12004	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
105	17734	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
106	15034	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
107	12609	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
108	12320	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
109	10833	12625.3273	8817.2625	16433.3921	0.1781	0.5624	0.692	0.5624
110	11350	13823.4765	8438.4006	19208.5525	0.184	0.8618	0.5128	0.7079
111	13648	15808.4863	9213.2814	22403.6912	0.2604	0.9074	0.7666	0.8501
112	14890	17022.0583	9406.652	24637.4646	0.2916	0.8074	0.4188	0.8869
113	16325	18496.5225	9982.2933	27010.7516	0.3086	0.7968	0.3131	0.9225
114	18045	16669.8831	7343.0518	25996.7145	0.3863	0.5289	0.5367	0.8197
115	15616	14546.6861	4472.5872	24620.785	0.4176	0.2481	0.553	0.6676
116	11926	13383.7573	2614.1169	24153.3977	0.3954	0.3423	0.5991	0.5768
117	16855	17546.4055	6123.497	28969.314	0.4528	0.8326	0.4872	0.8151
118	15083	16169.4153	4128.6294	28210.2011	0.4298	0.4556	0.5733	0.7345
119	12520	14603.0078	1974.5396	27231.476	0.3732	0.4703	0.6215	0.6385
120	12355	12681.4665	-508.5257	25871.4586	0.4807	0.5096	0.5214	0.5214

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
109	0.1539	-0.142	0	3212437.2676	0	0
110	0.1988	-0.1789	0.1604	6118086.2426	4665261.7551	2159.9217
111	0.2129	-0.1367	0.1525	4667701.1618	4666074.8906	2160.1099
112	0.2283	-0.1253	0.1457	4545672.6055	4635974.3194	2153.1313
113	0.2349	-0.1174	0.14	4715509.7571	4651881.4069	2156.8221
114	0.2855	0.0825	0.1305	1890946.425	4191725.5766	2047.3704
115	0.3533	0.0735	0.1223	1143432.1249	3756255.0835	1938.1061
116	0.4106	-0.1089	0.1206	2125056.3501	3552355.2418	1884.7693
117	0.3321	-0.0394	0.1116	478041.5986	3210764.837	1791.8607
118	0.3799	-0.0672	0.1072	1180298.1648	3007718.1698	1734.2774
119	0.4412	-0.1426	0.1104	4338921.3663	3128736.6422	1768.8235
120	0.5307	-0.0257	0.1033	106580.3462	2876890.2842	1696.1398

Charts produced by software:

http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/11/t12920717117gjyrvafgdop10q/1fto71292071839.png (open in new window)

http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/11/t12920717117gjyrvafgdop10q/1fto71292071839.ps (open in new window)

http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/11/t12920717117gjyrvafgdop10q/2t3mg1292071839.png (open in new window)

http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/11/t12920717117gjyrvafgdop10q/2t3mg1292071839.ps (open in new window)

Parameters (Session):

par1 = 12 ; par2 = 1 ; par3 = 1 ; par4 = 1 ; par5 = 12 ; par6 = 0 ; par7 = 0 ; par8 = 0 ; par9 = 1 ; par10 = FALSE ;

Parameters (R input):

par1 = 12 ; par2 = 1 ; par3 = 1 ; par4 = 1 ; par5 = 12 ; par6 = 0 ; par7 = 0 ; par8 = 0 ; par9 = 1 ; par10 = FALSE ;

R code (references can be found in the software module):

par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods

par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda

par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing

par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing

par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period

par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p

par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q

par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P

par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q

if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE

if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE

if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)

if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2

lx <- length(x)

first <- lx - 2*par1

nx <- lx - par1

nx1 <- nx + 1

fx <- lx - nx

if (fx < 1) {

fx <- par5

nx1 <- lx + fx - 1

first <- lx - 2*fx

}

first <- 1

if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)

(arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

(forecast <- predict(arima.out,par1))

(lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)

(ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)

if (par2 == 0) {

x <- exp(x)

forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)

lb <- exp(lb)

ub <- exp(ub)

}

if (par2 != 0) {

x <- x^(1/par2)

forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)

lb <- lb^(1/par2)

ub <- ub^(1/par2)

}

if (par2 < 0) {

olb <- lb

lb <- ub

ub <- olb

}

(actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))

(perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)

bitmap(file='test1.png')

opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)

ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))

plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))

usr <- par('usr')

rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')

rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')

abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)

polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)

lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)

lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)

lines(x, lwd=2)

lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')

box()

par(opar)

dev.off()

prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)

prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)

prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)

prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)

perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)

perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)

perf.mape1 <- array(0, dim=fx)

perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)

perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)

perf.mse1 <- array(0, dim=fx)

perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)

for (i in 1:fx) {

locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96

perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]

perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2

prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)

prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)

prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)

prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)

}

perf.mape[1] = abs(perf.pe[1])

perf.mse[1] = abs(perf.se[1])

for (i in 2:fx) {

perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i-1] + abs(perf.pe[i])

perf.mape1[i] = perf.mape[i] / i

perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i-1] + perf.se[i]

perf.mse1[i] = perf.mse[i] / i

}

perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse1)

bitmap(file='test2.png')

plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))

dum <- forecast$pred

dum[1:par1] <- x[(nx+1):lx]

lines(dum, lty=1)

lines(ub,lty=3)

lines(lb,lty=3)

dev.off()

load(file='createtable')

a<-table.start()

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)

a<-table.row.end(a)

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)

mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')

mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')

a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.row.end(a)

for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,x[i])

a<-table.element(a,'-')

a<-table.element(a,'-')

a<-table.element(a,'-')

a<-table.element(a,'-')

a<-table.element(a,'-')

a<-table.element(a,'-')

a<-table.element(a,'-')

a<-table.row.end(a)

}

for (i in 1:fx) {

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))

a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))

a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))

a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))

a<-table.row.end(a)

}

a<-table.end(a)

table.save(a,file='mytable.tab')

a<-table.start()

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)

a<-table.row.end(a)

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.row.end(a)

for (i in 1:fx) {

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape1[i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse1[i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))

a<-table.row.end(a)

}

a<-table.end(a)

table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License.

Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa

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