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Multiple Regression PS

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Tue, 14 Dec 2010 10:10:50 +0000
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/14/t12923213709hz7ryn37rhp1tk.htm/, Retrieved Tue, 14 Dec 2010 11:09:40 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/14/t12923213709hz7ryn37rhp1tk.htm/},
    year = {2010},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2010},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
0,301030 1,623249 3,000000 0,255273 2,795185 4,000000 -0,154902 2,255273 4,000000 0,591065 1,544068 1,000000 0,000000 2,593286 4,000000 0,556303 1,799341 1,000000 0,146128 2,361728 1,000000 0,176091 2,049218 4,000000 -0,154902 2,448706 5,000000 0,322219 1,623249 1,000000 0,612784 1,623249 2,000000 0,079181 2,079181 2,000000 -0,301030 2,170262 5,000000 0,531479 1,204120 2,000000 0,176091 2,491362 1,000000 0,531479 1,447158 3,000000 -0,096910 1,832509 4,000000 -0,096910 2,526339 5,000000 0,301030 1,698970 1,000000 0,278754 2,426511 1,000000 0,113943 1,278754 3,000000 0,748188 1,079181 1,000000 0,491362 2,079181 1,000000 0,255273 2,146128 2,000000 -0,045757 2,230449 4,000000 0,255273 1,230449 2,000000 0,278754 2,060698 4,000000 -0,045757 1,491362 5,000000 0,414973 1,322219 3,000000 0,380211 1,716003 1,000000 0,079181 2,214844 2,000000 -0,045757 2,352183 2,000000 -0,301030 2,352183 3,000000 -0,221849 2,178977 5,000000 0,361728 1,778151 2,000000 -0,301030 2,301030 3,000000 0,414 etc...
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time8 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
logPS[t] = + 1.07450734616664 -0.303538833951603LogGestationTime[t] -0.110510503182968danger[t] + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)1.074507346166640.1287518.345600
LogGestationTime-0.3035388339516030.068904-4.40539.1e-054.5e-05
danger-0.1105105031829680.022191-4.981.6e-058e-06


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.809091592228325
R-squared0.654629204614566
Adjusted R-squared0.635441938204264
F-TEST (value)34.1178983298573
F-TEST (DF numerator)2
F-TEST (DF denominator)36
p-value4.88811024990099e-09
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation0.181764075869477
Sum Squared Residuals1.18937445396066


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
10.301030.2502567279446340.0507732720553663
20.255273-0.2159818621442410.471254862144242
3-0.154902-0.0520976032277633-0.102804396772237
40.5910650.495312242721690.0957527572783097
50-0.1546976751082470.154697675108247
60.5563030.4178269739623630.138476026037637
70.1461280.247120679752823-0.100992679752823
80.1760910.01044809120213370.165642908797866
9-0.154902-0.2213225336784920.0664205336784922
100.3222190.471277734310569-0.149058734310569
110.6127840.36076723112760.252016768872400
120.0791810.222374163486378-0.143193163486378
13-0.30103-0.136803966597672-0.164226033402328
140.5314790.4879891590629020.0434898409370984
150.1760910.207771726552341-0.0316807265523407
160.5314790.3037071847540040.227771815245996
17-0.096910.0762276883689517-0.173137688368952
18-0.09691-0.2448871639746570.147977163974657
190.301030.448293470264919-0.147263470264919
200.2787540.2274565234729360.051297476527064
210.1139430.354824338546790-0.240881338546790
220.7481880.6364235006209490.111764499379051
230.4913620.3328846666693460.158477333330654
240.2552730.2020531491698200.0532198508301798
25-0.045757-0.0445625552137491-0.00119444478625089
260.2552730.47999728510379-0.22472428510379
270.2787540.00696346538836940.271790534611631
28-0.0457570.069268547772071-0.115025547772071
290.4149730.3416310231290830.0733419768709168
300.3802110.443123293306222-0.0629122933062215
310.0791810.181195174656002-0.102014174656002
32-0.0457570.139507454739923-0.185264454739923
33-0.301030.0289969515569544-0.330026951556954
34-0.221849-0.139449307535560-0.0823996924644396
350.3617280.3137484586708290.0479795413291709
36-0.301030.0445238735300809-0.345553873530081
370.4149730.3487747153370060.0661982846629935
38-0.221849-0.0724183140054877-0.149430685994512
390.8195440.6161024863043910.203441513695609


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
60.5979297081938410.8041405836123180.402070291806159
70.8058159452044280.3883681095911450.194184054795572
80.7209828895117880.5580342209764240.279017110488212
90.6497659183872150.700468163225570.350234081612785
100.6130064100578310.7739871798843380.386993589942169
110.6901085253220840.6197829493558330.309891474677916
120.6912012802259570.6175974395480870.308798719774043
130.7378995440825710.5242009118348570.262100455917429
140.6517744016447130.6964511967105730.348225598355287
150.5666444524026870.8667110951946260.433355547597313
160.5946904791577930.8106190416844140.405309520842207
170.6108813665350950.778237266929810.389118633464905
180.613442091978280.773115816043440.38655790802172
190.5892063618513630.8215872762972730.410793638148637
200.503428919142050.99314216171590.49657108085795
210.591401327270730.817197345458540.40859867272927
220.5262821064803420.9474357870393170.473717893519658
230.5343529679049850.931294064190030.465647032095015
240.4829153890805120.9658307781610250.517084610919488
250.414302884219750.82860576843950.58569711578025
260.6028554759793160.7942890480413690.397144524020684
270.9605588040118210.07888239197635720.0394411959881786
280.97055276359690.05889447280620030.0294472364031002
290.9617219047838260.07655619043234710.0382780952161736
300.9327458613966030.1345082772067940.067254138603397
310.913605372481530.1727892550369400.0863946275184699
320.9363542289458890.1272915421082220.0636457710541112
330.8803575891609630.2392848216780750.119642410839038


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level00OK
10% type I error level30.107142857142857NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/14/t12923213709hz7ryn37rhp1tk/101tvu1292321439.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/14/t12923213709hz7ryn37rhp1tk/25jx31292321439.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/14/t12923213709hz7ryn37rhp1tk/25jx31292321439.ps (open in new window)


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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/14/t12923213709hz7ryn37rhp1tk/4yswo1292321439.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/14/t12923213709hz7ryn37rhp1tk/5yswo1292321439.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/14/t12923213709hz7ryn37rhp1tk/6yswo1292321439.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/14/t12923213709hz7ryn37rhp1tk/7qjvq1292321439.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/14/t12923213709hz7ryn37rhp1tk/7qjvq1292321439.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/14/t12923213709hz7ryn37rhp1tk/81tvu1292321439.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/14/t12923213709hz7ryn37rhp1tk/81tvu1292321439.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/14/t12923213709hz7ryn37rhp1tk/91tvu1292321439.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/14/t12923213709hz7ryn37rhp1tk/91tvu1292321439.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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