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Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(101.76,102.37,102.38,102.86,102.87,102.92,102.95,103.02,104.08,104.16,104.24,104.33,104.73,104.86,105.03,105.62,105.63,105.63,105.94,106.61,107.69,107.78,107.93,108.48,108.14,108.48,108.48,108.89,108.93,109.21,109.47,109.80,111.73,111.85,112.12,112.15,112.17,112.67,112.80,113.44,113.53,114.53,114.51,115.05,116.67,117.07,116.92,117.00,117.02,117.35,117.36,117.82,117.88,118.24,118.50,118.80,119.76,120.09) > par9 = '1' > par8 = '2' > par7 = '1' > par6 = '3' > par5 = '12' > par4 = '1' > par3 = '1' > par2 = '1' > par1 = 'FALSE' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education > #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!) > library(lattice) > if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE > if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial > par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial > armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){ + try1 <- arima.out$coef + try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef)) + try.data.frame <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names))) + dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv')) + try.data.frame[,1] <- try1 + for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i] + try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2] + try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5) + vector <- rep(NA,length(names)) + vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0 + maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4]) + continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05 + vector[maxi] <- 0 + list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue) + } > arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){ + nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3] + coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc) + names <- NULL + if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='') + if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') ) + if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep='')) + if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep='')) + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML') + mylist[[1]] <- arima.out + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- FALSE + i <- 1 + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- 2 + aic <- arima.out$aic + while(!mystop){ + mylist[[i]] <- arima.out + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector) + aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic) + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- !last.arma$continue + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- i+1 + } + list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic) + } > arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){ + noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef) + coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]] + k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1 + coeff <- coeff[1:k,] + pval <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,] + aic <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k] + coeff[coeff==0] <- NA + n <- ncol(coeff) + if(missing(choix)) choix <- k + layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2, + 3,3,3,2, + 3,3,3,4, + 5,6,7,7),nr=4), + widths=c(10,35,45,15), + heights=c(30,30,15,15)) + couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50) + ticks <- pretty(coeff) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA) + points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA) + title('aic',line=2) + par(mar=c(3,0,0,0)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1)) + rect(xleft = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + ytop = rep(1,50), + ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA) + axis(1,ticks) + rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0) + text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks)) + for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) { + if(pval[j,i]<.01) symb = 'green' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.1) & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red' + else symb = 'black' + polygon(c(i+.5 ,i+.2 ,i+.5 ,i+.5), + c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5), + col=symb) + if(j==choix) { + rect(xleft=i-.5, + xright=i+.5, + ybottom=k-j+1.5, + ytop=k-j+.5, + lwd=4) + text(i, + k-j+1, + round(coeff[j,i],2), + cex=1.2, + font=2) + } + else{ + rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5) + text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1) + } + } + axis(3,1:n,noms) + par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8)) + cols <- c('green','orange','red','black') + niv <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1') + for(i in 0:3){ + polygon(c(1+2*i ,1+2*i ,1+2*i-.5 ,1+2*i), + c(.4 ,.7 , .4 , .4), + col=cols[i+1]) + text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5) + } + text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5) + text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2) + box() + residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + acf(residus,main='') + title('acf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + pacf(residus,main='') + title('pacf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(2,2,4,1)) + qqnorm(residus,main='') + title('qq-norm',line=.5) + qqline(residus) + residus + } > if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) > if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 > (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5))) [[1]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [1,] 0.1177343 0.3188316 0.01931060 -0.2982037 -0.02502386 -0.5302033 [2,] 0.1862055 0.3242269 0.00000000 -0.3614172 -0.02598545 -0.5207479 [3,] 0.1885186 0.3256167 0.00000000 -0.3696789 0.00000000 -0.5106358 [4,] 0.0000000 0.3052108 0.00000000 -0.1832991 0.00000000 -0.5255067 [5,] 0.0000000 0.2651477 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.00000000 -0.4791594 [6,] 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.00000000 -0.2874926 [7,] 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [13,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [14,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [,7] [1,] -0.9788638 [2,] -1.0067537 [3,] -1.0049697 [4,] -1.0054135 [5,] -1.0032058 [6,] -1.0024731 [7,] -1.0020538 [8,] NA [9,] NA [10,] NA [11,] NA [12,] NA [13,] NA [14,] NA [[2]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [,7] [1,] 0.00001 0.00000 0.64078 0.03739 0.60883 0.00000 0.14056 [2,] 0.62786 0.06491 NA 0.35247 0.88571 0.01489 0.13328 [3,] 0.62139 0.06281 NA 0.33341 NA 0.01298 0.09471 [4,] NA 0.09711 NA 0.24431 NA 0.00853 0.08303 [5,] NA 0.14523 NA NA NA 0.02550 0.04036 [6,] NA NA NA NA NA 0.15406 0.03286 [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.03280 [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [13,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [14,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [[3]] [[3]][[1]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.1177 0.3188 0.0193 -0.2982 -0.0250 -0.5302 -0.9789 s.e. 0.0244 0.0096 0.0411 0.1394 0.0486 0.0249 0.6537 sigma^2 estimated as 0.03643: log likelihood = -5.42, aic = 26.84 [[3]][[2]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.1177 0.3188 0.0193 -0.2982 -0.0250 -0.5302 -0.9789 s.e. 0.0244 0.0096 0.0411 0.1394 0.0486 0.0249 0.6537 sigma^2 estimated as 0.03643: log likelihood = -5.42, aic = 26.84 [[3]][[3]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.1862 0.3242 0 -0.3614 -0.0260 -0.5207 -1.0068 s.e. 0.3818 0.1719 0 0.3852 0.1799 0.2066 0.6599 sigma^2 estimated as 0.03575: log likelihood = -5.41, aic = 24.83 [[3]][[4]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.1885 0.3256 0 -0.3697 0 -0.5106 -1.0050 s.e. 0.3794 0.1713 0 0.3786 0 0.1985 0.5904 sigma^2 estimated as 0.03648: log likelihood = -5.42, aic = 22.85 [[3]][[5]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0 0.3052 0 -0.1833 0 -0.5255 -1.0054 s.e. 0 0.1807 0 0.1557 0 0.1924 0.5691 sigma^2 estimated as 0.03609: log likelihood = -5.52, aic = 21.04 [[3]][[6]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0 0.2651 0 0 0 -0.4792 -1.0032 s.e. 0 0.1794 0 0 0 0.2086 0.4776 sigma^2 estimated as 0.03895: log likelihood = -6.19, aic = 20.37 [[3]][[7]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0 0 0 0 0 -0.2875 -1.0025 s.e. 0 0 0 0 0 0.1989 0.4580 sigma^2 estimated as 0.04698: log likelihood = -7.23, aic = 20.46 $aic [1] 26.83698 24.82705 22.84754 21.04399 20.37367 20.45820 20.21042 Warning messages: 1: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 2: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 3: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 4: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 5: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 6: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/1c4q41292331740.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > resid <- arimaSelectplot(selection) > dev.off() null device 1 > resid Time Series: Start = 1 End = 58 Frequency = 1 [1] 0.0587511420 0.0267467844 0.0175183002 0.0134806563 0.0107628536 [6] 0.0090011929 0.0077360530 0.0068306985 0.0070718536 0.0064388480 [11] 0.0059286231 -0.0521929845 -0.3497441113 -0.3247844665 0.1080705450 [16] 0.0741973936 -0.0002611246 -0.0341346498 0.1890307493 0.4054324319 [21] 0.0130578811 0.0062404811 0.0467723396 0.3105225399 -0.5013262977 [26] 0.0281023914 -0.0819963309 -0.1021954164 0.0213925455 0.1894111685 [31] 0.0355602352 -0.0919135874 0.6198996944 0.0236461387 0.1042060819 [36] -0.2585862451 0.0688510469 0.0348708451 0.0958126107 0.1541806969 [41] 0.0538928889 0.6934075402 -0.1428572697 0.2597312897 0.1197640073 [46] 0.2467697590 -0.2666858580 -0.0044490705 -0.1338789789 -0.0702559213 [51] -0.0780747192 -0.0908883156 0.0200320002 0.0106090723 0.1284275187 [56] -0.1073697895 -0.2752772665 0.1234292032 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/2c4q41292331740.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > acf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/3c4q41292331740.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > pacf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/45dpp1292331740.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > cpgram(resid, main='Residual Cumulative Periodogram') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/55dpp1292331740.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > hist(resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/65dpp1292331740.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > densityplot(~resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/7fmos1292331740.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > qqnorm(resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot') > qqline(resid) > dev.off() null device 1 > ncols <- length(selection[[1]][1,]) > nrows <- length(selection[[2]][,1])-1 > > #Note: the /var/www/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/www/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection', ncols+1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Iteration', header=TRUE) > for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,names(selection[[3]][[1]]$coef)[i],header=TRUE) + } > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (j in 1:nrows) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + mydum <- 'Estimates (' + mydum <- paste(mydum,j) + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum, header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,round(selection[[1]][j,i],4)) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'(p-val)', header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + mydum <- '(' + mydum <- paste(mydum,round(selection[[2]][j,i],4),sep='') + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/8bwm11292331740.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated ARIMA Residuals', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Value', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in (par4*par5+par3):length(resid)) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,resid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/945m41292331740.tab") > > try(system("convert tmp/1c4q41292331740.ps tmp/1c4q41292331740.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/2c4q41292331740.ps tmp/2c4q41292331740.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/3c4q41292331740.ps tmp/3c4q41292331740.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/45dpp1292331740.ps tmp/45dpp1292331740.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/55dpp1292331740.ps tmp/55dpp1292331740.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/65dpp1292331740.ps tmp/65dpp1292331740.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/7fmos1292331740.ps tmp/7fmos1292331740.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 6.540 5.620 12.124