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*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Mon, 20 Dec 2010 20:15:14 +0000
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9.htm/, Retrieved Mon, 20 Dec 2010 21:18:43 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9.htm/},
    year = {2010},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2010},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
313737 312276 309391 302950 300316 304035 333476 337698 335932 323931 313927 314485 313218 309664 302963 298989 298423 301631 329765 335083 327616 309119 295916 291413 291542 284678 276475 272566 264981 263290 296806 303598 286994 276427 266424 267153 268381 262522 255542 253158 243803 250741 280445 285257 270976 261076 255603 260376 263903 264291 263276 262572 256167 264221 293860 300713 287224 275902 271115 277509 279681
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time6 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
HPC[t] = + 320655.670588235 + 880.29019607827M1[t] -6186.68627450981M2[t] -10274.9176470588M3[t] -12688.7490196078M4[t] -16929.1803921569M5[t] -11815.0117647059M6[t] + 19340.3568627451M7[t] + 26008.3254901961M8[t] + 16355.4941176471M9[t] + 4966.66274509804M10[t] -2658.76862745098M11[t] -1068.56862745098t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)320655.6705882356373.9570450.307200
M1880.290196078277433.5334140.11840.9062280.453114
M2-6186.686274509817802.279801-0.79290.4317190.215859
M3-10274.91764705887792.316204-1.31860.1935610.096781
M4-12688.74901960787783.390596-1.63020.1095980.054799
M5-16929.18039215697775.50655-2.17720.034410.017205
M6-11815.01176470597768.667239-1.52090.1348570.067429
M719340.35686274517762.8754222.49140.0162340.008117
M826008.32549019617758.1334483.35240.001570.000785
M916355.49411764717754.443242.10920.0401710.020086
M104966.662745098047751.8063020.64070.5247580.262379
M11-2658.768627450987750.223709-0.34310.7330540.366527
t-1068.5686274509890.431209-11.816400


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.896894324127192
R-squared0.804419428651573
Adjusted R-squared0.755524285814467
F-TEST (value)16.4519292096453
F-TEST (DF numerator)12
F-TEST (DF denominator)48
p-value4.12336831345783e-13
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation12253.3454343963
Sum Squared Residuals7206934768.06276


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1313737320467.392156864-6730.39215686355
2312276312331.847058824-55.8470588235415
3309391307175.0470588242215.95294117650
4302950303692.647058823-742.64705882347
5300316298383.6470588231932.35294117654
6304035302429.2470588231605.75294117655
7333476332516.047058823959.952941176511
8337698338115.447058823-417.447058823474
9335932327394.0470588238537.95294117654
10323931314936.6470588238994.3529411765
11313927306242.6470588237684.35294117651
12314485307832.8470588246652.15294117651
13313218307644.5686274515573.43137254917
14309664299509.02352941210154.9764705883
15302963294352.2235294128610.77647058825
16298989290869.8235294128119.17647058825
17298423285560.82352941212862.1764705882
18301631289606.42352941212024.5764705882
19329765319693.22352941210071.7764705883
20335083325292.6235294129790.37647058825
21327616314571.22352941213044.7764705882
22309119302113.8235294127005.17647058825
23295916293419.8235294122496.17647058826
24291413295010.023529412-3597.02352941175
25291542294821.745098039-3279.74509803902
26284678286686.2-2008.19999999999
27276475281529.4-5054.40000000000
28272566278047-5481.00000000002
29264981272738-7757.00000000001
30263290276783.6-13493.6
31296806306870.4-10064.4
32303598312469.8-8871.8
33286994301748.4-14754.4
34276427289291-12864
35266424280597-14173
36267153282187.2-15034.2
37268381281998.921568627-13617.9215686273
38262522273863.376470588-11341.3764705882
39255542268706.576470588-13164.5764705883
40253158265224.176470588-12066.1764705883
41243803259915.176470588-16112.1764705883
42250741263960.776470588-13219.7764705883
43280445294047.576470588-13602.5764705883
44285257299646.976470588-14389.9764705883
45270976288925.576470588-17949.5764705883
46261076276468.176470588-15392.1764705882
47255603267774.176470588-12171.1764705882
48260376269364.376470588-8988.37647058826
49263903269176.098039216-5273.09803921553
50264291261040.5529411763250.4470588235
51263276255883.7529411767392.2470588235
52262572252401.35294117710170.6470588235
53256167247092.3529411779074.64705882349
54264221251137.95294117713083.0470588235
55293860281224.75294117712635.2470588235
56300713286824.15294117613888.8470588235
57287224276102.75294117711121.2470588235
58275902263645.35294117712256.6470588235
59271115254951.35294117716163.6470588235
60277509256541.55294117720967.4470588235
61279681256353.27450980423327.7254901962


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
160.002851324373146960.005702648746293910.997148675626853
170.0003983676386229280.0007967352772458550.999601632361377
184.97111211197424e-059.94222422394848e-050.99995028887888
196.23242510916713e-061.24648502183343e-050.99999376757489
207.89719101441688e-071.57943820288338e-060.999999210280899
213.36005310066386e-066.72010620132772e-060.9999966399469
220.0001964308590640140.0003928617181280290.999803569140936
230.00210432054602620.00420864109205240.997895679453974
240.01535494227423790.03070988454847570.984645057725762
250.02422183232994330.04844366465988660.975778167670057
260.05389406031885210.1077881206377040.946105939681148
270.1068362229112870.2136724458225750.893163777088713
280.1425096265836670.2850192531673340.857490373416333
290.2668833427216320.5337666854432640.733116657278368
300.3914685103065290.7829370206130580.608531489693471
310.4617088298042530.9234176596085070.538291170195747
320.5568741295206430.8862517409587150.443125870479357
330.7646725933646210.4706548132707580.235327406635379
340.9051121351415360.1897757297169280.0948878648584642
350.9657244227741290.06855115445174180.0342755772258709
360.9871190472467580.02576190550648360.0128809527532418
370.9990632460275230.001873507944953260.00093675397247663
380.9999571420621878.57158756251123e-054.28579378125561e-05
390.9999876644583882.46710832243331e-051.23355416121666e-05
400.9999979672317324.06553653670542e-062.03276826835271e-06
410.999997289118765.42176247957969e-062.71088123978985e-06
420.999991659947231.66801055386310e-058.34005276931552e-06
430.9999923546796351.52906407299399e-057.64532036496995e-06
440.9999025230217140.0001949539565718629.74769782859308e-05
450.9988630053084180.002273989383163200.00113699469158160


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level170.566666666666667NOK
5% type I error level200.666666666666667NOK
10% type I error level210.7NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/100nxw1292876107.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/100nxw1292876107.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/11cg71292876106.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/11cg71292876106.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/21cg71292876106.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/21cg71292876106.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/34vi51292876107.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/34vi51292876107.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/44vi51292876107.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/44vi51292876107.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/54vi51292876107.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/54vi51292876107.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/6f5h81292876107.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/6f5h81292876107.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/7peyb1292876107.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/7peyb1292876107.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/8peyb1292876107.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/8peyb1292876107.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/9peyb1292876107.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/20/t1292876313no81pmkl0dnlaw9/9peyb1292876107.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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