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Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(1.3031,1.3241,1.2961,1.2865,1.2305,1.2101,1.2125,1.2350,1.2014,1.1992,1.1791,1.1832,1.2159,1.1922,1.2114,1.2614,1.2812,1.2786,1.2772,1.2815,1.2679,1.2765,1.3247,1.3191,1.3029,1.3234,1.3354,1.3651,1.3453,1.3534,1.3706,1.3638,1.4268,1.4485,1.4635,1.4587,1.4876,1.5189,1.5783,1.5633,1.5554,1.5757,1.5593,1.4660,1.4065,1.2759,1.2705,1.3954,1.2793,1.2694,1.3282,1.3230,1.4135,1.4042,1.4253,1.4322,1.4632,1.4713,1.5016,1.4318) > par20 = '' > par19 = '' > par18 = '' > par17 = '' > par16 = '' > par15 = '' > par14 = '' > par13 = '' > par12 = '' > par11 = '' > par10 = '' > par9 = '1' > par8 = '2' > par7 = '1' > par6 = '3' > par5 = '12' > par4 = '1' > par3 = '1' > par2 = '1' > par1 = 'FALSE' > ylab = '' > xlab = '' > main = '' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education > #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!) > library(lattice) > if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE > if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial > par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial > armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){ + try1 <- arima.out$coef + try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef)) + try.data.frame <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names))) + dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv')) + try.data.frame[,1] <- try1 + for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i] + try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2] + try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5) + vector <- rep(NA,length(names)) + vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0 + maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4]) + continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05 + vector[maxi] <- 0 + list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue) + } > arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){ + nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3] + coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc) + names <- NULL + if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='') + if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') ) + if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep='')) + if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep='')) + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML') + mylist[[1]] <- arima.out + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- FALSE + i <- 1 + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- 2 + aic <- arima.out$aic + while(!mystop){ + mylist[[i]] <- arima.out + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector) + aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic) + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- !last.arma$continue + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- i+1 + } + list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic) + } > arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){ + noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef) + coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]] + k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1 + coeff <- coeff[1:k,] + pval <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,] + aic <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k] + coeff[coeff==0] <- NA + n <- ncol(coeff) + if(missing(choix)) choix <- k + layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2, + 3,3,3,2, + 3,3,3,4, + 5,6,7,7),nr=4), + widths=c(10,35,45,15), + heights=c(30,30,15,15)) + couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50) + ticks <- pretty(coeff) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA) + points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA) + title('aic',line=2) + par(mar=c(3,0,0,0)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1)) + rect(xleft = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + ytop = rep(1,50), + ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA) + axis(1,ticks) + rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0) + text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks)) + for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) { + if(pval[j,i]<.01) symb = 'green' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.1) & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red' + else symb = 'black' + polygon(c(i+.5 ,i+.2 ,i+.5 ,i+.5), + c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5), + col=symb) + if(j==choix) { + rect(xleft=i-.5, + xright=i+.5, + ybottom=k-j+1.5, + ytop=k-j+.5, + lwd=4) + text(i, + k-j+1, + round(coeff[j,i],2), + cex=1.2, + font=2) + } + else{ + rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5) + text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1) + } + } + axis(3,1:n,noms) + par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8)) + cols <- c('green','orange','red','black') + niv <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1') + for(i in 0:3){ + polygon(c(1+2*i ,1+2*i ,1+2*i-.5 ,1+2*i), + c(.4 ,.7 , .4 , .4), + col=cols[i+1]) + text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5) + } + text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5) + text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2) + box() + residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + acf(residus,main='') + title('acf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + pacf(residus,main='') + title('pacf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(2,2,4,1)) + qqnorm(residus,main='') + title('qq-norm',line=.5) + qqline(residus) + residus + } > if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) > if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 > (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5))) [[1]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [1,] -0.55348356 -0.05242844 0.2913243 0.5767648 -1.5875634 -0.8341756 [2,] -0.52369230 0.00000000 0.3179303 0.5696722 -1.5903072 -0.8342973 [3,] -0.49116170 0.00000000 0.2760918 0.5073280 -0.9644541 -0.3878551 [4,] -0.06203836 0.00000000 0.2687184 0.0000000 -0.9771615 -0.3942540 [5,] 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.2650012 0.0000000 -0.9561183 -0.3759432 [6,] 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 -0.8768097 -0.3405250 [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [13,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [14,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [,7] [1,] 0.9991134 [2,] 1.0016692 [3,] 0.0000000 [4,] 0.0000000 [5,] 0.0000000 [6,] 0.0000000 [7,] NA [8,] NA [9,] NA [10,] NA [11,] NA [12,] NA [13,] NA [14,] NA [[2]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [,7] [1,] 0.04032 0.75633 0.07451 0.03296 0 0.00000 0.14493 [2,] 0.03447 NA 0.01973 0.03711 0 0.00000 0.14514 [3,] 0.10122 NA 0.04129 0.11908 0 0.02011 NA [4,] 0.67847 NA 0.07759 NA 0 0.01688 NA [5,] NA NA 0.08298 NA 0 0.01991 NA [6,] NA NA NA NA 0 0.03892 NA [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [13,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [14,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [[3]] [[3]][[1]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.5535 -0.0524 0.2913 0.5768 -1.5876 -0.8342 0.9991 s.e. 0.2632 0.1681 0.1601 0.2632 0.1195 0.0690 0.6751 sigma^2 estimated as 0.001346: log likelihood = 73.9, aic = -131.81 [[3]][[2]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.5535 -0.0524 0.2913 0.5768 -1.5876 -0.8342 0.9991 s.e. 0.2632 0.1681 0.1601 0.2632 0.1195 0.0690 0.6751 sigma^2 estimated as 0.001346: log likelihood = 73.9, aic = -131.81 [[3]][[3]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.5237 0 0.3179 0.5697 -1.5903 -0.8343 1.0017 s.e. 0.2413 0 0.1322 0.2664 0.1191 0.0694 0.6774 sigma^2 estimated as 0.001348: log likelihood = 73.86, aic = -133.71 [[3]][[4]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.4912 0 0.2761 0.5073 -0.9645 -0.3879 0 s.e. 0.2946 0 0.1321 0.3203 0.1591 0.1619 0 sigma^2 estimated as 0.002032: log likelihood = 72.86, aic = -133.72 [[3]][[5]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.0620 0 0.2687 0 -0.9772 -0.3943 0 s.e. 0.1489 0 0.1494 0 0.1562 0.1600 0 sigma^2 estimated as 0.002095: log likelihood = 72.09, aic = -134.17 [[3]][[6]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0 0 0.2650 0 -0.9561 -0.3759 0 s.e. 0 0 0.1501 0 0.1519 0.1569 0 sigma^2 estimated as 0.002129: log likelihood = 72, aic = -136 [[3]][[7]] NULL $aic [1] -131.8084 -133.7101 -133.7164 -134.1732 -136.0015 -134.9979 Warning messages: 1: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 2: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 3: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 4: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 5: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/1if2t1292960728.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > resid <- arimaSelectplot(selection) > dev.off() null device 1 > resid Time Series: Start = 1 End = 60 Frequency = 1 [1] 7.523448e-04 3.527250e-04 2.072479e-04 1.460064e-04 6.581829e-05 [6] 3.599847e-05 3.306119e-05 5.004586e-05 1.268419e-05 9.319865e-06 [11] -1.073530e-05 -7.203687e-04 -4.655095e-03 -2.881921e-02 3.043252e-02 [16] 3.842650e-02 5.803837e-02 3.894482e-03 -1.259219e-02 -2.688176e-02 [21] 1.161676e-02 9.663573e-03 4.419810e-02 -4.566227e-03 -2.807253e-02 [26] 4.194214e-03 2.351472e-02 2.419988e-02 8.798746e-03 1.534089e-02 [31] 9.872951e-03 -2.554473e-02 7.917721e-02 1.621017e-02 1.786807e-02 [36] -2.401437e-02 9.235803e-03 3.313457e-02 5.836960e-02 -4.507298e-02 [41] -7.073613e-03 1.368316e-02 -6.193440e-03 -1.046266e-01 -4.945991e-02 [46] -1.311448e-01 1.082018e-03 1.378801e-01 -8.429813e-02 -7.243654e-03 [51] 8.406225e-03 -8.700375e-03 9.866864e-02 -2.504632e-02 2.311810e-02 [56] -1.182329e-02 5.859655e-03 -5.269226e-03 1.833142e-04 -7.096648e-02 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/2if2t1292960728.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > acf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/3if2t1292960728.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > pacf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/4if2t1292960728.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > cpgram(resid, main='Residual Cumulative Periodogram') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/5a6je1292960728.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > hist(resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/6a6je1292960728.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > densityplot(~resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/7a6je1292960728.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > qqnorm(resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot') > qqline(resid) > dev.off() null device 1 > ncols <- length(selection[[1]][1,]) > nrows <- length(selection[[2]][,1])-1 > > #Note: the /var/www/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/www/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection', ncols+1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Iteration', header=TRUE) > for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,names(selection[[3]][[1]]$coef)[i],header=TRUE) + } > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (j in 1:nrows) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + mydum <- 'Estimates (' + mydum <- paste(mydum,j) + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum, header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,round(selection[[1]][j,i],4)) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'(p-val)', header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + mydum <- '(' + mydum <- paste(mydum,round(selection[[2]][j,i],4),sep='') + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/86gz51292960728.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated ARIMA Residuals', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Value', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in (par4*par5+par3):length(resid)) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,resid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/9z7y81292960728.tab") > > try(system("convert tmp/1if2t1292960728.ps tmp/1if2t1292960728.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/2if2t1292960728.ps tmp/2if2t1292960728.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/3if2t1292960728.ps tmp/3if2t1292960728.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/4if2t1292960728.ps tmp/4if2t1292960728.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/5a6je1292960728.ps tmp/5a6je1292960728.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/6a6je1292960728.ps tmp/6a6je1292960728.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/7a6je1292960728.ps tmp/7a6je1292960728.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 6.520 4.360 11.181