R version 2.12.0 (2010-10-15) Copyright (C) 2010 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing ISBN 3-900051-07-0 Platform: i486-pc-linux-gnu (32-bit) R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY. You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions. Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details. R is a collaborative project with many contributors. Type 'contributors()' for more information and 'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications. Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or 'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help. Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(0.6923,0.6886,0.6855,0.6745,0.6769,0.6758,0.6896,0.6843,0.6818,0.6774,0.6821,0.6885,0.6829,0.6796,0.6976,0.6924,0.6849,0.6921,0.6839,0.6727,0.6776,0.6692,0.6738,0.6740,0.6635,0.6737,0.6788,0.6828,0.6795,0.6740,0.6744,0.6764,0.6987,0.6967,0.7116,0.7357,0.7455,0.7639,0.7958,0.7864,0.7853,0.7903,0.7866,0.8039,0.7916,0.7903,0.8242,0.9567,0.8850,0.8865,0.9258,0.8948,0.8762,0.8527,0.8536,0.8805,0.9155,0.8961,0.9127,0.8857) > par20 = '' > par19 = '' > par18 = '' > par17 = '' > par16 = '' > par15 = '' > par14 = '' > par13 = '' > par12 = '' > par11 = '' > par10 = '' > par9 = '1' > par8 = '2' > par7 = '1' > par6 = '3' > par5 = '12' > par4 = '0' > par3 = '1' > par2 = '1' > par1 = 'FALSE' > ylab = '' > xlab = '' > main = '' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education > #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!) > library(lattice) > if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE > if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial > par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial > armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){ + try1 <- arima.out$coef + try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef)) + try.data.frame <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names))) + dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv')) + try.data.frame[,1] <- try1 + for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i] + try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2] + try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5) + vector <- rep(NA,length(names)) + vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0 + maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4]) + continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05 + vector[maxi] <- 0 + list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue) + } > arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){ + nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3] + coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc) + names <- NULL + if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='') + if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') ) + if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep='')) + if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep='')) + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML') + mylist[[1]] <- arima.out + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- FALSE + i <- 1 + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- 2 + aic <- arima.out$aic + while(!mystop){ + mylist[[i]] <- arima.out + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector) + aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic) + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- !last.arma$continue + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- i+1 + } + list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic) + } > arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){ + noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef) + coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]] + k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1 + coeff <- coeff[1:k,] + pval <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,] + aic <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k] + coeff[coeff==0] <- NA + n <- ncol(coeff) + if(missing(choix)) choix <- k + layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2, + 3,3,3,2, + 3,3,3,4, + 5,6,7,7),nr=4), + widths=c(10,35,45,15), + heights=c(30,30,15,15)) + couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50) + ticks <- pretty(coeff) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA) + points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA) + title('aic',line=2) + par(mar=c(3,0,0,0)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1)) + rect(xleft = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + ytop = rep(1,50), + ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA) + axis(1,ticks) + rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0) + text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks)) + for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) { + if(pval[j,i]<.01) symb = 'green' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.1) & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red' + else symb = 'black' + polygon(c(i+.5 ,i+.2 ,i+.5 ,i+.5), + c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5), + col=symb) + if(j==choix) { + rect(xleft=i-.5, + xright=i+.5, + ybottom=k-j+1.5, + ytop=k-j+.5, + lwd=4) + text(i, + k-j+1, + round(coeff[j,i],2), + cex=1.2, + font=2) + } + else{ + rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5) + text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1) + } + } + axis(3,1:n,noms) + par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8)) + cols <- c('green','orange','red','black') + niv <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1') + for(i in 0:3){ + polygon(c(1+2*i ,1+2*i ,1+2*i-.5 ,1+2*i), + c(.4 ,.7 , .4 , .4), + col=cols[i+1]) + text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5) + } + text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5) + text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2) + box() + residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + acf(residus,main='') + title('acf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + pacf(residus,main='') + title('pacf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(2,2,4,1)) + qqnorm(residus,main='') + title('qq-norm',line=.5) + qqline(residus) + residus + } > if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) > if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 > (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5))) [[1]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [1,] -0.0776077 -0.1284945 0.1201713 -0.07050793 0.6488848 0.1143409 [2,] -0.1489570 -0.1408650 0.1087628 0.00000000 0.4193670 0.1195148 [3,] -0.1508692 -0.1445706 0.1116077 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.1063644 [4,] -0.1540557 -0.1449166 0.1043158 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.1006077 [5,] -0.1569521 -0.1475462 0.1070530 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 [6,] -0.1771466 -0.1652980 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 [7,] -0.1530417 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 [8,] 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [13,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [14,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [,7] [1,] -0.67384753 [2,] -0.44247307 [3,] -0.01794856 [4,] 0.00000000 [5,] 0.00000000 [6,] 0.00000000 [7,] 0.00000000 [8,] 0.00000000 [9,] NA [10,] NA [11,] NA [12,] NA [13,] NA [14,] NA [[2]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [,7] [1,] 0.93177 0.51632 0.54290 0.93843 0.7665 0.60007 0.76472 [2,] 0.26854 0.28034 0.44817 NA 0.7200 0.54973 0.70629 [3,] 0.26138 0.26635 0.43629 NA NA 0.59198 0.90428 [4,] 0.24338 0.26637 0.42339 NA NA 0.60107 NA [5,] 0.23279 0.25632 0.40975 NA NA NA NA [6,] 0.17394 0.20073 NA NA NA NA NA [7,] 0.23974 NA NA NA NA NA NA [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [13,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [14,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [[3]] [[3]][[1]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.0776 -0.1285 0.1202 -0.0705 0.6489 0.1143 -0.6738 s.e. 0.9020 0.1966 0.1962 0.9083 2.1737 0.2168 2.2398 sigma^2 estimated as 0.0005532: log likelihood = 137.14, aic = -258.28 [[3]][[2]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.0776 -0.1285 0.1202 -0.0705 0.6489 0.1143 -0.6738 s.e. 0.9020 0.1966 0.1962 0.9083 2.1737 0.2168 2.2398 sigma^2 estimated as 0.0005532: log likelihood = 137.14, aic = -258.28 [[3]][[3]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.1490 -0.1409 0.1088 0 0.4194 0.1195 -0.4425 s.e. 0.1332 0.1292 0.1423 0 1.1637 0.1985 1.1679 sigma^2 estimated as 0.0005558: log likelihood = 137.13, aic = -260.25 [[3]][[4]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.1509 -0.1446 0.1116 0 0 0.1064 -0.0179 s.e. 0.1329 0.1287 0.1423 0 0 0.1973 0.1486 sigma^2 estimated as 0.0005583: log likelihood = 137.06, aic = -262.13 [[3]][[5]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.1541 -0.1449 0.1043 0 0 0.1006 0 s.e. 0.1306 0.1291 0.1293 0 0 0.1913 0 sigma^2 estimated as 0.0005587: log likelihood = 137.06, aic = -264.11 [[3]][[6]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.1570 -0.1475 0.1071 0 0 0 0 s.e. 0.1301 0.1287 0.1289 0 0 0 0 sigma^2 estimated as 0.0005636: log likelihood = 136.92, aic = -265.84 [[3]][[7]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.1771 -0.1653 0 0 0 0 0 s.e. 0.1287 0.1277 0 0 0 0 0 sigma^2 estimated as 0.0005705: log likelihood = 136.58, aic = -267.15 [[3]][[8]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.1530 0 0 0 0 0 0 s.e. 0.1288 0 0 0 0 0 0 sigma^2 estimated as 0.0005872: log likelihood = 135.75, aic = -267.51 $aic [1] -258.2755 -260.2512 -262.1260 -264.1115 -265.8390 -267.1541 -267.5057 [8] -268.1127 Warning messages: 1: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 2: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 3: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 4: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 5: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 6: In max(i) : no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf 7: In max(i) : no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf 8: In max(try.data.frame[, 4], na.rm = TRUE) : no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/1olpq1292964442.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > resid <- arimaSelectplot(selection) > dev.off() null device 1 > resid Time Series: Start = 1 End = 60 Frequency = 1 [1] 0.0006922996 -0.0036563058 -0.0036662544 -0.0114744294 0.0007165408 [6] -0.0007326998 0.0136316541 -0.0031880239 -0.0033111212 -0.0047826044 [11] 0.0040266163 0.0071192962 -0.0046205328 -0.0041570338 0.0174949622 [16] -0.0024452486 -0.0082958171 0.0060521869 -0.0070980994 -0.0124549423 [21] 0.0031859325 -0.0076500955 0.0033144494 0.0009039920 -0.0104693917 [26] 0.0085930617 0.0066610258 0.0047805129 -0.0026878330 -0.0060050378 [31] -0.0004417296 0.0020612167 0.0226060835 0.0014128309 0.0145939165 [36] 0.0263803220 0.0134883060 0.0198998091 0.0347159681 -0.0045179684 [41] -0.0025385924 0.0048316541 -0.0029347913 0.0167337456 -0.0096523778 [46] -0.0031824134 0.0337010457 0.1376881151 -0.0514219690 -0.0094730930 [51] 0.0395295626 -0.0249854595 -0.0233442940 -0.0263465764 -0.0026964810 [56] 0.0270377376 0.0391168229 -0.0140435390 0.0136309902 -0.0244595071 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/2olpq1292964442.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > acf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/3gcoa1292964442.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > pacf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/4gcoa1292964442.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > cpgram(resid, main='Residual Cumulative Periodogram') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/5gcoa1292964442.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > hist(resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/6gcoa1292964442.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > densityplot(~resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/7r45v1292964442.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > qqnorm(resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot') > qqline(resid) > dev.off() null device 1 > ncols <- length(selection[[1]][1,]) > nrows <- length(selection[[2]][,1])-1 > > #Note: the /var/www/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/www/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection', ncols+1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Iteration', header=TRUE) > for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,names(selection[[3]][[1]]$coef)[i],header=TRUE) + } > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (j in 1:nrows) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + mydum <- 'Estimates (' + mydum <- paste(mydum,j) + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum, header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,round(selection[[1]][j,i],4)) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'(p-val)', header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + mydum <- '(' + mydum <- paste(mydum,round(selection[[2]][j,i],4),sep='') + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/8nelm1292964442.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated ARIMA Residuals', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Value', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in (par4*par5+par3):length(resid)) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,resid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/9ynkp1292964442.tab") > > try(system("convert tmp/1olpq1292964442.ps tmp/1olpq1292964442.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/2olpq1292964442.ps tmp/2olpq1292964442.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/3gcoa1292964442.ps tmp/3gcoa1292964442.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/4gcoa1292964442.ps tmp/4gcoa1292964442.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/5gcoa1292964442.ps tmp/5gcoa1292964442.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/6gcoa1292964442.ps tmp/6gcoa1292964442.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/7r45v1292964442.ps tmp/7r45v1292964442.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 4.620 5.710 10.322