R version 2.12.0 (2010-10-15)
Copyright (C) 2010 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0
Platform: i486-pc-linux-gnu (32-bit)

R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY.
You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions.
Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details.

R is a collaborative project with many contributors.
Type 'contributors()' for more information and
'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications.

Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or
'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help.
Type 'q()' to quit R.

> x <- c(1.3866
+ ,1.3582
+ ,1.3332
+ ,1.3595
+ ,1.3617
+ ,1.3684
+ ,1.3394
+ ,1.3262
+ ,1.3173
+ ,1.3085
+ ,1.327
+ ,1.3182
+ ,1.293
+ ,1.291
+ ,1.2984
+ ,1.2795
+ ,1.299
+ ,1.3174
+ ,1.326
+ ,1.3111
+ ,1.2816
+ ,1.276
+ ,1.2849
+ ,1.2818
+ ,1.2829
+ ,1.2796
+ ,1.3008
+ ,1.2967
+ ,1.2938
+ ,1.2833
+ ,1.2823
+ ,1.2765
+ ,1.2634
+ ,1.2596
+ ,1.2705
+ ,1.2591
+ ,1.2798
+ ,1.2763
+ ,1.2795
+ ,1.2782
+ ,1.2644
+ ,1.2596
+ ,1.2615
+ ,1.2555
+ ,1.2555
+ ,1.2658
+ ,1.2565
+ ,1.2783
+ ,1.2786
+ ,1.2782
+ ,1.2905
+ ,1.3042
+ ,1.2942
+ ,1.313
+ ,1.3671
+ ,1.3549
+ ,1.3558
+ ,1.3507
+ ,1.3494
+ ,1.3607
+ ,1.3295
+ ,1.3193
+ ,1.3308
+ ,1.3246
+ ,1.3392
+ ,1.3425
+ ,1.3496
+ ,1.3255
+ ,1.3231
+ ,1.3273
+ ,1.3276
+ ,1.3173
+ ,1.3196
+ ,1.3058
+ ,1.2966
+ ,1.2932
+ ,1.2947
+ ,1.305
+ ,1.3232
+ ,1.3125
+ ,1.2992
+ ,1.3266
+ ,1.3275
+ ,1.3223
+ ,1.3403
+ ,1.3322
+ ,1.3363
+ ,1.3425
+ ,1.3574
+ ,1.3683
+ ,1.3623
+ ,1.3563
+ ,1.3518
+ ,1.3494
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+ ,1.369
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+ ,1.3866
+ ,1.3959
+ ,1.4102
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+ ,1.4004
+ ,1.385
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+ ,1.3858
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+ ,1.3901
+ ,1.399
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+ ,1.3975
+ ,1.3991
+ ,1.4089
+ ,1.413
+ ,1.409
+ ,1.4217
+ ,1.4223
+ ,1.4191
+ ,1.4229
+ ,1.4227
+ ,1.4269
+ ,1.4229
+ ,1.4104
+ ,1.4053
+ ,1.4138
+ ,1.4303
+ ,1.4384
+ ,1.441
+ ,1.437
+ ,1.4357
+ ,1.4202
+ ,1.4166
+ ,1.417
+ ,1.4293
+ ,1.4294
+ ,1.4072
+ ,1.4101
+ ,1.4112
+ ,1.4243
+ ,1.433
+ ,1.4323
+ ,1.4324
+ ,1.427
+ ,1.4268
+ ,1.4364
+ ,1.4272
+ ,1.4314
+ ,1.422
+ ,1.4335
+ ,1.4262
+ ,1.433
+ ,1.4473
+ ,1.4522
+ ,1.4545
+ ,1.4594
+ ,1.4561
+ ,1.4611
+ ,1.4671
+ ,1.4712
+ ,1.4705
+ ,1.4658
+ ,1.478
+ ,1.4783
+ ,1.4768
+ ,1.467
+ ,1.465
+ ,1.4549
+ ,1.4643
+ ,1.4539
+ ,1.4537
+ ,1.4616
+ ,1.4722
+ ,1.4694
+ ,1.4763
+ ,1.475
+ ,1.4765
+ ,1.4864
+ ,1.4881
+ ,1.4864
+ ,1.4869
+ ,1.4918
+ ,1.4971
+ ,1.4921
+ ,1.5
+ ,1.502
+ ,1.5019
+ ,1.4874
+ ,1.4785
+ ,1.4788
+ ,1.48
+ ,1.4772
+ ,1.4658
+ ,1.4761
+ ,1.4867
+ ,1.4862
+ ,1.4984
+ ,1.4966
+ ,1.5037
+ ,1.4922
+ ,1.4868
+ ,1.4965
+ ,1.4875
+ ,1.4957
+ ,1.4863
+ ,1.4815
+ ,1.4968
+ ,1.4969
+ ,1.5083
+ ,1.5071
+ ,1.4918
+ ,1.5023
+ ,1.5074
+ ,1.509
+ ,1.512
+ ,1.5068
+ ,1.4787
+ ,1.4774
+ ,1.4768
+ ,1.473
+ ,1.4757
+ ,1.4647
+ ,1.4541
+ ,1.456
+ ,1.4343
+ ,1.4337
+ ,1.4368
+ ,1.4279
+ ,1.4276
+ ,1.4398
+ ,1.4405
+ ,1.4433
+ ,1.4338
+ ,1.4406
+ ,1.4389
+ ,1.4442
+ ,1.435
+ ,1.4304
+ ,1.4273
+ ,1.4528
+ ,1.4481
+ ,1.4563
+ ,1.4486
+ ,1.4374
+ ,1.4369
+ ,1.4279
+ ,1.4132
+ ,1.4064
+ ,1.4135
+ ,1.4151
+ ,1.4085
+ ,1.4072
+ ,1.3999
+ ,1.3966
+ ,1.3913
+ ,1.3937
+ ,1.3984
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+ ,1.3691
+ ,1.3675
+ ,1.376
+ ,1.374
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+ ,1.3356
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+ ,1.3471
+ ,1.3482
+ ,1.3479
+ ,1.3468
+ ,1.3396
+ ,1.334
+ ,1.3296
+ ,1.3384
+ ,1.3585
+ ,1.3583
+ ,1.3615
+ ,1.3544
+ ,1.3535
+ ,1.3432
+ ,1.3486
+ ,1.3373
+ ,1.3339
+ ,1.3311
+ ,1.3321
+ ,1.329
+ ,1.3245
+ ,1.3256
+ ,1.3315
+ ,1.3238
+ ,1.3089
+ ,1.2924
+ ,1.2727
+ ,1.2746
+ ,1.2969
+ ,1.2698
+ ,1.2686
+ ,1.2587
+ ,1.2492
+ ,1.2349
+ ,1.2428
+ ,1.227
+ ,1.2334
+ ,1.2497
+ ,1.236
+ ,1.2223
+ ,1.2309
+ ,1.2255
+ ,1.2384
+ ,1.2307
+ ,1.2155
+ ,1.2218
+ ,1.2268
+ ,1.206
+ ,1.1959
+ ,1.1942
+ ,1.201
+ ,1.2045
+ ,1.2127
+ ,1.2249
+ ,1.2258
+ ,1.2277
+ ,1.2363
+ ,1.2372
+ ,1.2391
+ ,1.2258
+ ,1.2271
+ ,1.2262
+ ,1.2294
+ ,1.2339
+ ,1.2198
+ ,1.2271
+ ,1.2328
+ ,1.2548
+ ,1.2531
+ ,1.2579
+ ,1.2567
+ ,1.266
+ ,1.2637
+ ,1.2572
+ ,1.2569
+ ,1.2703
+ ,1.2828
+ ,1.3
+ ,1.2957
+ ,1.2844
+ ,1.2817
+ ,1.285
+ ,1.2897
+ ,1.2931
+ ,1.3033
+ ,1.2992
+ ,1.3069
+ ,1.3028
+ ,1.3073
+ ,1.3221
+ ,1.3206
+ ,1.3184
+ ,1.3176
+ ,1.3253
+ ,1.3133
+ ,1.3016
+ ,1.279
+ ,1.2799
+ ,1.282
+ ,1.286
+ ,1.288
+ ,1.2836
+ ,1.2711
+ ,1.2704
+ ,1.2611
+ ,1.2613
+ ,1.2693
+ ,1.2713
+ ,1.27
+ ,1.268
+ ,1.28
+ ,1.2818
+ ,1.2834
+ ,1.2874
+ ,1.2744
+ ,1.2697
+ ,1.2715
+ ,1.2725
+ ,1.2801
+ ,1.285
+ ,1.2989
+ ,1.3078
+ ,1.306
+ ,1.3074
+ ,1.312
+ ,1.3364
+ ,1.3323
+ ,1.3412
+ ,1.3477
+ ,1.346
+ ,1.3611
+ ,1.3648
+ ,1.3726
+ ,1.3705
+ ,1.378
+ ,1.3856
+ ,1.397
+ ,1.3874
+ ,1.3936
+ ,1.3833
+ ,1.3958
+ ,1.4101
+ ,1.4089
+ ,1.3896
+ ,1.3859
+ ,1.3861
+ ,1.4016
+ ,1.3934
+ ,1.4031
+ ,1.3912
+ ,1.3803
+ ,1.3857
+ ,1.3857
+ ,1.3926
+ ,1.4018
+ ,1.4014
+ ,1.4244
+ ,1.4084
+ ,1.3917
+ ,1.3945
+ ,1.377
+ ,1.37
+ ,1.3711
+ ,1.3626
+ ,1.3612
+ ,1.3481
+ ,1.3647
+ ,1.3674
+ ,1.3647
+ ,1.3496
+ ,1.3339
+ ,1.3321
+ ,1.3225
+ ,1.3146
+ ,1.2998)
> par3 = 'additive'
> par2 = 'Double'
> par1 = '5'
> par1 <- 5
> if (par2 == 'Single') K <- 1
> if (par2 == 'Double') K <- 2
> if (par2 == 'Triple') K <- par1
> nx <- length(x)
> nxmK <- nx - K
> x <- ts(x, frequency = par1)
> if (par2 == 'Single') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F, beta=F)
> if (par2 == 'Double') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F)
> if (par2 == 'Triple') fit <- HoltWinters(x, seasonal=par3)
> fit
Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with trend and without seasonal component.

Call:
 HoltWinters(x = x, gamma = F) 

Smoothing parameters:
 alpha:  0.9784252 
 beta :  0.1108248 
 gamma:  FALSE 

Coefficients:
          [,1]
a  1.300014263
b -0.006020177
> myresid <- x - fit$fitted[,'xhat']
> postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/1y1mh1293329583.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1))
> plot(fit,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Interpolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
> plot(myresid,ylab='Residuals',main='Interpolation Prediction Errors')
> par(op)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/2rb321293329583.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> p <- predict(fit, par1, prediction.interval=TRUE)
> np <- length(p[,1])
> plot(fit,p,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Extrapolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/3rb321293329583.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
> acf(as.numeric(myresid),lag.max = nx/2,main='Residual ACF')
> spectrum(myresid,main='Residals Periodogram')
> cpgram(myresid,main='Residal Cumulative Periodogram')
> qqnorm(myresid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot')
> qqline(myresid)
> par(op)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> 
> #Note: the /var/www/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab
> load(file="/var/www/rcomp/createtable")
> 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing',2,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Value',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'alpha',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,fit$alpha)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'beta',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,fit$beta)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'gamma',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,fit$gamma)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/4nkjb1293329583.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Fitted',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Residuals',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:nxmK) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i+K,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i+K])
+ a<-table.element(a,fit$fitted[i,'xhat'])
+ a<-table.element(a,myresid[i])
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/5yc0e1293329583.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Forecast',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% Lower Bound',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% Upper Bound',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:np) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,p[i,'fit'])
+ a<-table.element(a,p[i,'lwr'])
+ a<-table.element(a,p[i,'upr'])
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/61cyk1293329583.tab") 
> 
> try(system("convert tmp/1y1mh1293329583.ps tmp/1y1mh1293329583.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> try(system("convert tmp/2rb321293329583.ps tmp/2rb321293329583.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> try(system("convert tmp/3rb321293329583.ps tmp/3rb321293329583.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
   4.06    0.41    4.46