R version 2.9.0 (2009-04-17) Copyright (C) 2009 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing ISBN 3-900051-07-0 R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY. You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions. Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details. R is a collaborative project with many contributors. Type 'contributors()' for more information and 'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications. Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or 'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help. Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(9.026,9.787,9.536,9.490,9.736,9.694,9.647,9.753,10.070,10.137,9.984,9.732,9.103,9.155,9.308,9.394,9.948,10.177,10.002,9.728,10.002,10.063,10.018,9.960,10.236,10.893,10.756,10.940,10.997,10.827,10.166,10.186,10.457,10.368,10.244,10.511,10.812,10.738,10.171,9.721,9.897,9.828,9.924,10.371,10.846,10.413,10.709,10.662,10.570,10.297,10.635,10.872,10.296,10.383,10.431,10.574,10.653,10.805,10.872,10.625,10.407,10.463,10.556,10.646,10.702,11.353,11.346,11.451,11.964,12.574,13.031,13.812,14.544,14.931,14.886,16.005,17.064,15.168,16.050,15.839,15.137,14.954,15.648,15.305,15.579,16.348,15.928,16.171,15.937,15.713,15.594,15.683,16.438,17.032,17.696,17.745,19.394,20.148,20.108,18.584,18.441,18.391,19.178,18.079,18.483,19.644,19.195,19.650,20.830,23.595,22.937,21.814,21.928,21.777,21.383,21.467,22.052,22.680,24.320,24.977,25.204,25.739,26.434,27.525,30.695,32.436,30.160,30.236,31.293,31.077,32.226) > par10 = 'FALSE' > par9 = '1' > par8 = '1' > par7 = '1' > par6 = '3' > par5 = '12' > par4 = '0' > par3 = '1' > par2 = '1' > par1 = '0' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: Wessa P., (2009), ARIMA Forecasting (v1.0.5) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_arimaforecasting.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: > #Technical description: > par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P > par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q > if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE > if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE > if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) > if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 > lx <- length(x) > first <- lx - 2*par1 > nx <- lx - par1 > nx1 <- nx + 1 > fx <- lx - nx > if (fx < 1) { + fx <- par5 + nx1 <- lx + fx - 1 + first <- lx - 2*fx + } > first <- 1 > if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0) > (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML')) Call: arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sma1 1.1035 -0.3155 0.2052 -0.9506 -0.9120 0.9975 s.e. 0.0911 0.1282 0.0916 0.0349 0.0916 0.2153 sigma^2 estimated as 0.4239: log likelihood = -131.45, aic = 276.9 Warning message: In arima(x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, : possible convergence problem: optim gave code=1 > (forecast <- predict(arima.out,par1)) Error in ts(z[[1L]] + xm, start = xtsp[2L] + deltat(rsd), frequency = xtsp[3L]) : 'ts' object must have one or more observations Calls: predict -> predict.Arima -> ts Execution halted