R version 2.10.1 (2009-12-14)
Copyright (C) 2009 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

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> x <- c(40801,49081,52431,59650,75428,78705,68870,70641,80074,76464,69976,92917,92559,73981,71107,96942,86270,69610,57768,80077,71454,70382,69881,84530,79322,80181,82137,88439,91575,82909,73282,94089,108112,95653,85273,105093,102275,99308,79687,93263,114918,103374,65124,104045,101183,95492,85035,90692,107486,98179,82551,106804,110898,89950,65184,95357,98280,92146,77874,100039,104777,102341,71316,88838,85457,70784,70522,88629,88452,98886,79601,108135,113835,101617,68698,79182,86003,84165,68550,90385,100368,99081,81288,103491,111695,82504,62237,78249,92341,84412,75102,90461,106451,98379,72615,98367,116949,95832,68060,83923,87653,78054,57566,78784,88916,84662,63442,77773,88102,87972,61790,95276,104418,95420,82141,104064,96287,78426,59111,76837,76615,65860,57703,68656,77955,65856,60947,69885,80550,73694,67538,76326,84727)
> par3 = 'additive'
> par2 = 'Triple'
> par1 = '12'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: Wessa P., (2010), Exponential Smoothing (v1.0.4) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_exponentialsmoothing.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: 
> #Technical description: 
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
> if (par2 == 'Single') K <- 1
> if (par2 == 'Double') K <- 2
> if (par2 == 'Triple') K <- par1
> nx <- length(x)
> nxmK <- nx - K
> x <- ts(x, frequency = par1)
> if (par2 == 'Single') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F, beta=F)
> if (par2 == 'Double') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F)
> if (par2 == 'Triple') fit <- HoltWinters(x, seasonal=par3)
> fit
Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with trend and additive seasonal component.

Call:
 HoltWinters(x = x, seasonal = par3) 

Smoothing parameters:
 alpha:  0.5485278 
 beta :  0.0006449591 
 gamma:  0.7773188 

Coefficients:
           [,1]
a    75873.3420
b      466.2123
s1    1258.3234
s2  -18842.0254
s3   -3116.4927
s4    5455.4765
s5   -4710.7992
s6  -15466.8016
s7    -515.7903
s8    6659.9487
s9   -1185.6108
s10 -14923.1825
s11   -617.2814
s12   9273.6042
> myresid <- x - fit$fitted[,'xhat']
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/12hsa1275468252.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1))
> plot(fit,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Interpolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
> plot(myresid,ylab='Residuals',main='Interpolation Prediction Errors')
> par(op)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2d8rv1275468252.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> p <- predict(fit, par1, prediction.interval=TRUE)
> np <- length(p[,1])
> plot(fit,p,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Extrapolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3d8rv1275468252.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
> acf(as.numeric(myresid),lag.max = nx/2,main='Residual ACF')
> spectrum(myresid,main='Residals Periodogram')
> cpgram(myresid,main='Residal Cumulative Periodogram')
> qqnorm(myresid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot')
> qqline(myresid)
> par(op)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> 
> #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab
> load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable")
> 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing',2,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Value',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'alpha',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,fit$alpha)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'beta',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,fit$beta)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'gamma',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,fit$gamma)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4r0p41275468252.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Fitted',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Residuals',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:nxmK) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i+K,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i+K])
+ a<-table.element(a,fit$fitted[i,'xhat'])
+ a<-table.element(a,myresid[i])
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/5j8661275468252.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Forecast',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% Lower Bound',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% Upper Bound',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:np) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,p[i,'fit'])
+ a<-table.element(a,p[i,'lwr'])
+ a<-table.element(a,p[i,'upr'])
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/659nu1275468252.tab") 
> 
> try(system("convert tmp/12hsa1275468252.ps tmp/12hsa1275468252.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> try(system("convert tmp/2d8rv1275468252.ps tmp/2d8rv1275468252.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> try(system("convert tmp/3d8rv1275468252.ps tmp/3d8rv1275468252.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
   1.12    0.61    3.10