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mini tutorial multiple linear regression

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Tue, 30 Nov 2010 13:02:25 +0000
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8.htm/, Retrieved Tue, 30 Nov 2010 14:06:32 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8.htm/},
    year = {2010},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2010},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
2284 33 41 76403 194493 3160 108 90 108094 530670 4150 150 136 134759 518365 7285 115 97 188873 491303 1134 162 63 146216 527021 4658 158 114 156608 233773 2384 97 77 61348 405972 3748 9 6 50350 652925 5371 66 47 87720 446211 1285 107 51 99489 341340 9327 101 85 87419 387699 5565 47 43 94355 493408 1528 38 32 60326 146494 3122 34 25 94670 414462 7561 87 77 82425 364304 2675 79 54 59017 355178 13253 947 251 90829 357760 880 74 15 80791 261216 2053 53 44 100423 397144 1424 94 73 131116 374943 4036 63 85 100269 424898 3045 58 49 27330 202055 5119 49 38 39039 378525 1431 34 35 106885 310768 554 11 9 79285 325738 1975 35 34 118881 394510 1765 20 20 77623 247060 1012 47 29 114768 368078 810 43 11 74015 236761 1280 117 52 69465 312378 666 171 13 117869 339836 1380 26 29 60982 347385 4677 75 66 90131 426280 876 59 33 138971 352850 814 18 15 39625 301881 514 15 15 102725 377516 5692 72 68 64239 357312 3642 86 100 90262 458343 540 14 13 103960 354228 2099 64 45 106611 308636 567 etc...
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time6 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Wealth[t] = + 277356.379214211 + 9.68627414559874Costs[t] -215.764818638136Trades[t] + 397.451574439388Orders[t] + 0.693364216186951Dividends[t] + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)277356.37921421139187.2961177.077700
Costs9.686274145598747.2672581.33290.189140.09457
Trades-215.764818638136158.358849-1.36250.1796720.089836
Orders397.451574439388599.738890.66270.5108250.255412
Dividends0.6933642161869510.4001911.73260.089870.044935


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.392827243240654
R-squared0.154313243032052
Adjusted R-squared0.080775264165274
F-TEST (value)2.09841561340171
F-TEST (DF numerator)4
F-TEST (DF denominator)46
p-value0.0963284682016443
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation87541.7774609282
Sum Squared Residuals352523888846.859


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1194493361630.211109046-167137.211109046
2530670395381.558385441135288.441614559
3518365432680.17665561985684.8233443808
4491303492618.514546011-1315.51454601063
5527021379807.104899615147213.895100385
6233773442280.06549428-208507.065494281
7405972352659.54853588953312.451464111
8652925349014.249075821303910.750924179
9446211394643.01266267551567.9873373248
10341340355968.548697657-14628.548697657
11387699440304.601729954-52605.6017299535
12493408403632.34667768989775.6533223111
13146494338504.283088191-192010.283088191
14414462375838.00297047738623.9970295232
15364304419577.075558607-55273.0755586073
16355178348604.4028477076573.59715229306
17357760364137.210791847-6377.21079184654
18261216331893.065889666-70677.0658896664
19397144372924.34860477924219.6513952209
20374943390792.848149202-15849.8481492023
21424898406163.31851184218734.6814881579
22202055332761.495682466-130706.495682466
23378525358539.34591668119985.6540833188
24310768371902.473035387-61134.4730353869
25325738338899.60813619-13161.6081361900
26394510384876.1869148949633.81308510628
27247060351907.398750297-104847.398750297
28368078368120.062195651-42.0621956506366
29236761331615.693850616-94854.6938506164
30312378333342.35348819-20964.35348819
31339836333804.671073516031.32892648994
32347385338922.3845408008462.61545919952
33426280395202.13607746231077.8639225384
34352850382584.851510322-29734.8515103219
35301881314793.570316241-12912.5703162405
36377516356286.26456987221229.7354301281
37357312388523.315654525-31211.315654525
38458343396407.61357500761935.3864249929
39354228356815.274174408-2587.27417440775
40308636375684.493554661-67048.4935546614
41386212357695.13061373828516.8693862623
42393343366078.74411106827264.2558889318
43378509370454.880697548054.11930245974
44452469348938.655480924103530.344519076
45364839423975.395144575-59136.3951445753
46358649329054.63087827229594.3691217279
47376641351366.72069337225274.279306628
48429112360188.68101070868923.3189892923
49330546305738.34555226824807.6544477320
50403560395231.1591224058328.84087759478
51317892342724.968795934-24832.9687959336


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
80.9999935704256121.28591487766904e-056.4295743883452e-06
90.999994076201861.18475962781424e-055.92379813907118e-06
100.9999870468918842.59062162319417e-051.29531081159708e-05
110.9999886800227132.26399545730839e-051.13199772865420e-05
120.9999860597774232.78804451542394e-051.39402225771197e-05
130.999999942243591.15512819688027e-075.77564098440133e-08
140.9999998691273922.61745215367267e-071.30872607683633e-07
150.9999997073236525.85352695286271e-072.92676347643136e-07
160.9999990556950011.88860999721066e-069.44304998605331e-07
170.9999977631885654.47362287066488e-062.23681143533244e-06
180.9999976448591254.71028174992513e-062.35514087496257e-06
190.9999935186244441.29627511124401e-056.48137555622007e-06
200.9999871997683832.56004632332140e-051.28002316166070e-05
210.9999665900756686.68198486631992e-053.34099243315996e-05
220.999995747193828.50561236124415e-064.25280618062207e-06
230.9999908289200141.83421599728057e-059.17107998640285e-06
240.9999904929639151.90140721705425e-059.50703608527126e-06
250.999973605430555.27891388995116e-052.63945694497558e-05
260.9999292274047590.0001415451904828317.07725952414156e-05
270.99997505788474.98842306005752e-052.49421153002876e-05
280.9999314959800780.0001370080398438676.85040199219335e-05
290.9999814698110383.70603779240903e-051.85301889620451e-05
300.9999801818129393.96363741228884e-051.98181870614442e-05
310.999939106974310.0001217860513806256.08930256903127e-05
320.9998315948973940.0003368102052117610.000168405102605880
330.999607834838450.0007843303230989810.000392165161549490
340.999544992230790.0009100155384186320.000455007769209316
350.9990364656794340.001927068641131880.00096353432056594
360.9974090710588280.005181857882344510.00259092894117226
370.9943300040345050.01133999193099030.00566999596549516
380.9870433840672420.02591323186551580.0129566159327579
390.9726463569962450.05470728600751030.0273536430037552
400.9990584765210620.001883046957875670.000941523478937834
410.9962261845283260.007547630943347860.00377381547167393
420.989035847548140.02192830490372010.0109641524518600
430.9683556760902080.06328864781958380.0316443239097919


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level310.861111111111111NOK
5% type I error level340.944444444444444NOK
10% type I error level361NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/10n8b71291122137.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/10n8b71291122137.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/1z7ed1291122137.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/1z7ed1291122137.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/2rgvg1291122137.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/2rgvg1291122137.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/3rgvg1291122137.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/3rgvg1291122137.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/4rgvg1291122137.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/4rgvg1291122137.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/5k8d11291122137.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/5k8d11291122137.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/6k8d11291122137.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/6k8d11291122137.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/7vzc41291122137.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/7vzc41291122137.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/8vzc41291122137.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/8vzc41291122137.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/9n8b71291122137.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/30/t1291122381039j728zuhw8wg8/9n8b71291122137.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 5 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 5 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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