R version 2.12.0 (2010-10-15)
Copyright (C) 2010 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0
Platform: i486-pc-linux-gnu (32-bit)

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> x <- c(348542
+ ,335658
+ ,330664
+ ,326814
+ ,322900
+ ,322310
+ ,385164
+ ,404861
+ ,412136
+ ,411057
+ ,410040
+ ,414980
+ ,413626
+ ,411062
+ ,408352
+ ,409780
+ ,411318
+ ,415555
+ ,479481
+ ,497826
+ ,501638
+ ,497990
+ ,499287
+ ,506247
+ ,510401
+ ,508642
+ ,501805
+ ,495476
+ ,490336
+ ,490042
+ ,553155
+ ,569999
+ ,573170
+ ,571687
+ ,575453
+ ,580177
+ ,579849
+ ,574346
+ ,563325
+ ,555604
+ ,545544
+ ,545109
+ ,605181
+ ,627856
+ ,631421
+ ,625671
+ ,613577
+ ,606463
+ ,601676
+ ,589121
+ ,573559
+ ,558487
+ ,552148
+ ,545720
+ ,606569
+ ,636067
+ ,630704
+ ,623275
+ ,617771
+ ,605401
+ ,619393
+ ,596019
+ ,569977
+ ,546213
+ ,528492
+ ,505944
+ ,554910
+ ,567831
+ ,564021
+ ,552800
+ ,541102
+ ,542378
+ ,540380
+ ,521219
+ ,504652
+ ,490626
+ ,481686
+ ,477930
+ ,522605
+ ,531432
+ ,532355
+ ,539954
+ ,524987
+ ,533307
+ ,530541
+ ,508392
+ ,495208
+ ,482223
+ ,470495
+ ,466106
+ ,515037
+ ,517752
+ ,515565
+ ,510727
+ ,499725
+ ,498369
+ ,493756
+ ,476141
+ ,458458
+ ,443182
+ ,429597
+ ,424476
+ ,476257
+ ,480555
+ ,469762
+ ,459820
+ ,451028
+ ,450065
+ ,444385
+ ,428846
+ ,421020
+ ,399778
+ ,389005
+ ,384018
+ ,431933
+ ,445844
+ ,431464
+ ,423263
+ ,415881
+ ,416208
+ ,413491
+ ,399153
+ ,385939
+ ,373917
+ ,364635
+ ,364696
+ ,418358
+ ,428212
+ ,423730
+ ,420677
+ ,417428
+ ,423245
+ ,423113
+ ,418873
+ ,405733
+ ,397812
+ ,389918
+ ,391116
+ ,443814
+ ,460373
+ ,455422
+ ,456288
+ ,452233
+ ,459256
+ ,461146
+ ,451391
+ ,443101
+ ,438810
+ ,430457
+ ,435721
+ ,488280
+ ,505814
+ ,502338
+ ,500910
+ ,501434
+ ,515476
+ ,520862
+ ,519517
+ ,511805
+ ,508607
+ ,505327
+ ,511435
+ ,570158
+ ,591665
+ ,593572
+ ,586346
+ ,586063
+ ,591504
+ ,594033
+ ,585597
+ ,572450
+ ,562917
+ ,554675
+ ,553997
+ ,601310
+ ,622255
+ ,616735
+ ,606480
+ ,595079
+ ,598588
+ ,599917
+ ,591573
+ ,575489
+ ,567223
+ ,555338
+ ,555252
+ ,608249
+ ,630859
+ ,628632
+ ,624435
+ ,609670
+ ,615830
+ ,621170
+ ,604212
+ ,584348
+ ,573717
+ ,555234
+ ,544897
+ ,598866
+ ,620081
+ ,607699
+ ,589960
+ ,578665
+ ,580166
+ ,579457
+ ,571560
+ ,560460
+ ,551397
+ ,536763
+ ,540562
+ ,588184
+ ,607049
+ ,598968
+ ,577644
+ ,562640
+ ,565867
+ ,561274
+ ,554144
+ ,539900
+ ,526271
+ ,511841
+ ,505282
+ ,554083
+ ,584225
+ ,568858
+ ,539516
+ ,521612
+ ,525562
+ ,526519
+ ,515713
+ ,503454
+ ,489301
+ ,479020
+ ,475102
+ ,523682
+ ,551528
+ ,531626
+ ,511037
+ ,492417
+ ,492188
+ ,492865
+ ,480961
+ ,461935
+ ,456608
+ ,441977
+ ,439148
+ ,488180
+ ,520564
+ ,501492
+ ,485025
+ ,464196
+ ,460170
+ ,467037
+ ,460070
+ ,447988
+ ,442867
+ ,436087
+ ,431328
+ ,484015
+ ,509673
+ ,512927
+ ,502831
+ ,470984
+ ,471067
+ ,476049
+ ,474605
+ ,470439
+ ,461251
+ ,454724
+ ,455626
+ ,516847
+ ,525192
+ ,522975
+ ,518585
+ ,509239
+ ,512238
+ ,519164
+ ,517009
+ ,509933
+ ,509127
+ ,500857
+ ,506971
+ ,569323
+ ,579714
+ ,577992
+ ,565464
+ ,547344
+ ,554788
+ ,562325
+ ,560854
+ ,555332
+ ,543599
+ ,536662
+ ,542722
+ ,593530
+ ,610763
+ ,612613
+ ,611324
+ ,594167
+ ,595454
+ ,590865
+ ,589379
+ ,584428
+ ,573100
+ ,567456
+ ,569028
+ ,620735
+ ,628884
+ ,628232
+ ,612117
+ ,595404
+ ,597141)
> par9 = '1'
> par8 = '2'
> par7 = '1'
> par6 = '3'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '1'
> par3 = '1'
> par2 = '1.2'
> par1 = 'FALSE'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education
> #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!)
> library(lattice)
> if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE
> if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial
> armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){
+ try1 <- arima.out$coef
+ try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef))
+ try.data.frame  <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names)))
+ dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv'))
+ try.data.frame[,1] <- try1
+ for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i]
+ try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2]
+ try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5)
+ vector <- rep(NA,length(names))
+ vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0
+ maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4])
+ continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05
+ vector[maxi] <- 0
+ list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue)
+ }
> arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){
+ nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3]
+ coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc)
+ pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc)
+ mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc)
+ names  <- NULL
+ if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='')
+ if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') )
+ if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep=''))
+ if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep=''))
+ arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML')
+ mylist[[1]] <- arima.out
+ last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series))
+ mystop <- FALSE
+ i <- 1
+ coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1]
+ pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4]
+ i <- 2
+ aic <- arima.out$aic
+ while(!mystop){
+ mylist[[i]] <- arima.out
+ arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector)
+ aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic)
+ last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series))
+ mystop <- !last.arma$continue
+ coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1]
+ pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4]
+ i <- i+1
+ }
+ list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic)
+ }
> arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){
+ noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef)
+ coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]]
+ k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1
+ coeff <- coeff[1:k,]
+ pval  <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,]
+ aic   <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k]
+ coeff[coeff==0] <- NA
+ n <- ncol(coeff)
+ if(missing(choix)) choix <- k
+ layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2,
+ 3,3,3,2,
+ 3,3,3,4,
+ 5,6,7,7),nr=4),
+ widths=c(10,35,45,15),
+ heights=c(30,30,15,15))
+ couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50)
+ ticks <- pretty(coeff)
+ par(mar=c(1,1,3,1))
+ plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA)
+ points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA)
+ title('aic',line=2)
+ par(mar=c(3,0,0,0))
+ plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1))
+ rect(xleft  = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)),
+ xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)),
+ ytop   = rep(1,50),
+ ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA)
+ axis(1,ticks)
+ rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0)
+ text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2)
+ par(mar=c(1,1,3,1))
+ image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks))
+ for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) {
+ if(pval[j,i]<.01)                            symb = 'green'
+ else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange'
+ else if( (pval[j,i]<.1)  & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red'
+ else                                         symb = 'black'
+ polygon(c(i+.5   ,i+.2   ,i+.5   ,i+.5),
+ c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5),
+ col=symb)
+ if(j==choix)  {
+ rect(xleft=i-.5,
+ xright=i+.5,
+ ybottom=k-j+1.5,
+ ytop=k-j+.5,
+ lwd=4)
+ text(i,
+ k-j+1,
+ round(coeff[j,i],2),
+ cex=1.2,
+ font=2)
+ }
+ else{
+ rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5)
+ text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1)
+ }
+ }
+ axis(3,1:n,noms)
+ par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5))
+ plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8))
+ cols <- c('green','orange','red','black')
+ niv  <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1')
+ for(i in 0:3){
+ polygon(c(1+2*i   ,1+2*i   ,1+2*i-.5   ,1+2*i),
+ c(.4      ,.7      , .4        , .4),
+ col=cols[i+1])
+ text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5)
+ }
+ text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5)
+ text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2)
+ box()
+ residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res
+ par(mar=c(1,2,4,1))
+ acf(residus,main='')
+ title('acf',line=.5)
+ par(mar=c(1,2,4,1))
+ pacf(residus,main='')
+ title('pacf',line=.5)
+ par(mar=c(2,2,4,1))
+ qqnorm(residus,main='')
+ title('qq-norm',line=.5)
+ qqline(residus)
+ residus
+ }
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5)))
Error in optim(init[mask], armafn, method = optim.method, hessian = TRUE,  : 
  non-finite finite-difference value [2]
Calls: arimaSelect -> arima -> optim
In addition: Warning message:
In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean,  :
  some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE
Execution halted