R version 2.12.1 (2010-12-16)
Copyright (C) 2010 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0
Platform: i486-pc-linux-gnu (32-bit)

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> x <- c(117541.78,116587,116809,122819.55,116955,117186,117265,117536,117781,117928,120437.52,121753.21,119369.88,118622,118885,124998.3,119369,119647,119879,120075,120295,120538,123250.68,124631.03,122443.31,121532,121844,128241.75,122391,122644,122927,122909,123417,123756,126540.18,128088.74,125874.28,124817,124961,131499.9,125639,125851,125970,126322,126540,126733,129557.34,131179.77,128754.8,127890,127996,134790.6,128585,128851,129142,129334,129536,129944,132842.76,134447.96,132088.81,130902,131374,138243,131885,131839,132002,132005,132127,132116,134993.94,136459.55)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '0'
> par8 = '0'
> par7 = '0'
> par6 = '0'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '1'
> par3 = '1'
> par2 = '1'
> par1 = '12'
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")


sigma^2 estimated as 27543:  log likelihood = -306.94,  aic = 615.88
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,par1))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 61 
End = 72 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 132023.0 131158.2 131264.2 138058.8 131853.2 132119.2 132410.2 132602.2
 [9] 132804.2 133212.2 136111.0 137716.1

$se
Time Series:
Start = 61 
End = 72 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 165.9596 234.7023 287.4504 331.9191 371.0969 406.5162 439.0877 469.4045
 [9] 497.8787 524.8102 550.4256 574.9008

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 61 
End = 72 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 131697.7 130698.2 130700.8 137408.2 131125.8 131322.4 131549.6 131682.2
 [9] 131828.3 132183.6 135032.1 136589.3
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 61 
End = 72 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 132348.3 131618.2 131827.6 138709.4 132580.5 132916.0 133270.8 133522.2
 [9] 133780.0 134240.8 137189.8 138843.0
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> if (par2 < 0) {
+ olb <- lb
+ lb <- ub
+ ub <- olb
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
 [1] 117541.8 116587.0 116809.0 122819.6 116955.0 117186.0 117265.0 117536.0
 [9] 117781.0 117928.0 120437.5 121753.2 119369.9 118622.0 118885.0 124998.3
[17] 119369.0 119647.0 119879.0 120075.0 120295.0 120538.0 123250.7 124631.0
[25] 122443.3 121532.0 121844.0 128241.8 122391.0 122644.0 122927.0 122909.0
[33] 123417.0 123756.0 126540.2 128088.7 125874.3 124817.0 124961.0 131499.9
[41] 125639.0 125851.0 125970.0 126322.0 126540.0 126733.0 129557.3 131179.8
[49] 128754.8 127890.0 127996.0 134790.6 128585.0 128851.0 129142.0 129334.0
[57] 129536.0 129944.0 132842.8 134448.0 132023.0 131158.2 131264.2 138058.8
[65] 131853.2 132119.2 132410.2 132602.2 132804.2 133212.2 136111.0 137716.1
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 61 
End = 72 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.001257050 0.001789459 0.002189861 0.002404187 0.002814470 0.003076890
 [7] 0.003316117 0.003539945 0.003748968 0.003939656 0.004043948 0.004174534
> postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/1n1do1323159856.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
> lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
> lines(x, lwd=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
> box()
> par(opar)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape1 <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse1 <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
+ perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]
+ perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
+ prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ }
> perf.mape[1] = abs(perf.pe[1])
> perf.mse[1] = abs(perf.se[1])
> for (i in 2:fx) {
+ perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i-1] + abs(perf.pe[i])
+ perf.mape1[i] = perf.mape[i] / i
+ perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i-1] + perf.se[i]
+ perf.mse1[i] = perf.mse[i] / i
+ }
> perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse1)
> postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/2ogpy1323159857.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
> dum <- forecast$pred
> dum[1:par1] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
> lines(dum, lty=1)
> lines(ub,lty=3)
> lines(lb,lty=3)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> 
> #Note: the /var/www/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab
> load(file="/var/www/rcomp/createtable")
> 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
> mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
> mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
> a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i])
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/323mn1323159857.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape1[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse1[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/42lj41323159857.tab") 
> 
> try(system("convert tmp/1n1do1323159856.ps tmp/1n1do1323159856.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> try(system("convert tmp/2ogpy1323159857.ps tmp/2ogpy1323159857.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  1.004   0.188   1.534