R version 2.13.0 (2011-04-13) Copyright (C) 2011 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing ISBN 3-900051-07-0 Platform: i486-pc-linux-gnu (32-bit) R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY. You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions. Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details. R is a collaborative project with many contributors. Type 'contributors()' for more information and 'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications. Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or 'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help. Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(41,39,50,40,43,38,44,35,39,35,29,49,50,59,63,32,39,47,53,60,57,52,70,90,74,62,55,84,94,70,108,139,120,97,126,149,158,124,140,109,114,77,120,133,110,92,97,78,99,107,112,90,98,125,155,190,236,189,174,178,136,161,171,149,184,155,276,224,213,279,268,287,238,213,257,293,212,246,353,339,308,247,257,322,298,273,312,249,286,279,309,401,309,328,353,354,327,324,285,243,241,287,355,460,364,487,452,391,500,451,375,372,302,316,398,394,431,431) > par20 = '' > par19 = '' > par18 = '' > par17 = '' > par16 = '' > par15 = '' > par14 = '' > par13 = '' > par12 = '' > par11 = '' > par10 = '' > par9 = '1' > par8 = '2' > par7 = '1' > par6 = '3' > par5 = '2' > par4 = '0' > par3 = '1' > par2 = '1' > par1 = 'FALSE' > library(lattice) > if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE > if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial > par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial > armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){ + try1 <- arima.out$coef + try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef)) + try.data.frame <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names))) + dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv')) + try.data.frame[,1] <- try1 + for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i] + try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2] + try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5) + vector <- rep(NA,length(names)) + vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0 + maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4]) + continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05 + vector[maxi] <- 0 + list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue) + } > arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){ + nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3] + coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc) + names <- NULL + if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='') + if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') ) + if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep='')) + if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep='')) + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML') + mylist[[1]] <- arima.out + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- FALSE + i <- 1 + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- 2 + aic <- arima.out$aic + while(!mystop){ + mylist[[i]] <- arima.out + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector) + aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic) + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- !last.arma$continue + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- i+1 + } + list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic) + } > arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){ + noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef) + coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]] + k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1 + coeff <- coeff[1:k,] + pval <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,] + aic <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k] + coeff[coeff==0] <- NA + n <- ncol(coeff) + if(missing(choix)) choix <- k + layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2, + 3,3,3,2, + 3,3,3,4, + 5,6,7,7),nr=4), + widths=c(10,35,45,15), + heights=c(30,30,15,15)) + couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50) + ticks <- pretty(coeff) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA) + points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA) + title('aic',line=2) + par(mar=c(3,0,0,0)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1)) + rect(xleft = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + ytop = rep(1,50), + ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA) + axis(1,ticks) + rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0) + text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks)) + for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) { + if(pval[j,i]<.01) symb = 'green' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.1) & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red' + else symb = 'black' + polygon(c(i+.5 ,i+.2 ,i+.5 ,i+.5), + c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5), + col=symb) + if(j==choix) { + rect(xleft=i-.5, + xright=i+.5, + ybottom=k-j+1.5, + ytop=k-j+.5, + lwd=4) + text(i, + k-j+1, + round(coeff[j,i],2), + cex=1.2, + font=2) + } + else{ + rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5) + text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1) + } + } + axis(3,1:n,noms) + par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8)) + cols <- c('green','orange','red','black') + niv <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1') + for(i in 0:3){ + polygon(c(1+2*i ,1+2*i ,1+2*i-.5 ,1+2*i), + c(.4 ,.7 , .4 , .4), + col=cols[i+1]) + text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5) + } + text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5) + text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2) + box() + residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + acf(residus,main='') + title('acf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + pacf(residus,main='') + title('pacf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(2,2,4,1)) + qqnorm(residus,main='') + title('qq-norm',line=.5) + qqline(residus) + residus + } > if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) > if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 > (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5))) [[1]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [1,] -0.2312573 -0.3469765 -0.07360230 -0.06663767 0.3440930 -0.3280353 [2,] -0.2972188 -0.3550110 -0.09457127 0.00000000 0.3388143 -0.3273373 [3,] -0.2831088 -0.4776816 -0.13664725 0.00000000 0.2160062 -0.3736176 [4,] -0.2463837 -0.3450358 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.1067790 -0.2796068 [5,] -0.2596643 -0.2494378 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 -0.2477035 [6,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [13,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [14,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [,7] [1,] -0.2477102 [2,] -0.2540962 [3,] 0.0000000 [4,] 0.0000000 [5,] 0.0000000 [6,] NA [7,] NA [8,] NA [9,] NA [10,] NA [11,] NA [12,] NA [13,] NA [14,] NA [[2]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [,7] [1,] 0.80835 0.38539 0.83259 0.94456 0.33260 0.10728 0.69857 [2,] 0.00346 0.32438 0.54082 NA 0.31378 0.10929 0.67819 [3,] 0.00253 0.00095 0.18112 NA 0.12473 0.00096 NA [4,] 0.00919 0.09217 NA NA 0.61285 0.02219 NA [5,] 0.00487 0.00697 NA NA NA 0.00946 NA [6,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [13,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [14,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [[3]] [[3]][[1]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.2313 -0.3470 -0.0736 -0.0666 0.3441 -0.328 -0.2477 s.e. 0.9511 0.3981 0.3474 0.9561 0.3536 0.202 0.6380 sigma^2 estimated as 1410: log likelihood = -590.49, aic = 1196.98 [[3]][[2]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.2313 -0.3470 -0.0736 -0.0666 0.3441 -0.328 -0.2477 s.e. 0.9511 0.3981 0.3474 0.9561 0.3536 0.202 0.6380 sigma^2 estimated as 1410: log likelihood = -590.49, aic = 1196.98 [[3]][[3]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.2972 -0.3550 -0.0946 0 0.3388 -0.3273 -0.2541 s.e. 0.0995 0.3586 0.1542 0 0.3348 0.2028 0.6108 sigma^2 estimated as 1410: log likelihood = -590.49, aic = 1194.99 [[3]][[4]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.2831 -0.4777 -0.1366 0 0.2160 -0.3736 0 s.e. 0.0916 0.1407 0.1015 0 0.1396 0.1102 0 sigma^2 estimated as 1409: log likelihood = -590.45, aic = 1192.9 [[3]][[5]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.2464 -0.3450 0 0 0.1068 -0.2796 0 s.e. 0.0930 0.2031 0 0 0.2104 0.1206 0 sigma^2 estimated as 1430: log likelihood = -591.25, aic = 1192.49 [[3]][[6]] NULL [[3]][[7]] NULL $aic [1] 1196.984 1194.989 1192.897 1192.490 1190.705 Warning messages: 1: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 2: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/1vu9l1324641681.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > resid <- arimaSelectplot(selection) > dev.off() null device 1 > resid Time Series: Start = 1 End = 118 Frequency = 1 [1] 0.04099998 -1.84803909 10.00408709 -7.21740825 2.57537033 [6] -7.24127517 7.99228883 -10.65470216 4.44423557 -7.28852120 [11] -4.39417464 15.20952978 5.53325562 12.60560857 4.58328829 [16] -23.84041926 1.12008374 6.41674470 12.14198059 3.81833867 [21] -0.10660225 -4.79556263 18.55218063 26.20703599 -6.31937186 [26] -12.39572959 -10.55900693 30.45011134 15.02315587 -16.52848590 [31] 29.63678393 39.78156601 2.07320943 -23.63473396 26.52713665 [36] 32.99323004 23.37048541 -30.96738030 12.78483286 -30.03287872 [41] 8.63582365 -48.99003829 38.30087071 4.94388471 -7.95674534 [46] -33.32928367 3.11545471 -18.90292968 17.44394693 3.81556363 [51] 10.22920778 -25.41911249 7.83187258 25.15367840 42.92811141 [56] 44.38941323 61.96969618 -23.13329608 -6.62625591 1.06424708 [61] -26.87926081 11.13519183 3.60607268 -17.07137651 19.93676272 [66] -22.31970787 122.87063379 -32.25786726 13.72597231 40.96565384 [71] 34.76179004 25.21838898 -43.25522034 -22.00855426 26.48111068 [76] 52.39561520 -72.63691191 13.85085755 99.36324859 31.95362395 [81] -22.78934912 -68.64158811 8.45657461 60.99845538 -2.16506582 [86] -33.98446354 20.64679609 -48.13240804 31.04384717 -15.37166400 [91] 44.17841417 81.73102449 -53.59616250 12.23478618 15.71151164 [96] 37.83256573 -34.39920153 -2.92158949 -47.69601044 -47.81536235 [101] -25.63509078 34.03461757 67.68281658 119.59427478 -62.27987147 [106] 129.55259464 -10.84588252 -3.17959463 72.88404794 -2.38073245 [111] -69.78272734 -41.62082486 -68.67518035 -12.23348689 57.54030872 [116] 10.68944519 30.65099055 4.29280102 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/2262z1324641681.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > acf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/3ljkd1324641681.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > pacf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/410851324641681.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > cpgram(resid, main='Residual Cumulative Periodogram') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/5d6wg1324641681.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > hist(resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/6cwnt1324641681.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > densityplot(~resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/7fa2z1324641681.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > qqnorm(resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot') > qqline(resid) > dev.off() null device 1 > ncols <- length(selection[[1]][1,]) > nrows <- length(selection[[2]][,1])-1 > > #Note: the /var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection', ncols+1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Iteration', header=TRUE) > for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,names(selection[[3]][[1]]$coef)[i],header=TRUE) + } > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (j in 1:nrows) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + mydum <- 'Estimates (' + mydum <- paste(mydum,j) + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum, header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,round(selection[[1]][j,i],4)) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'(p-val)', header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + mydum <- '(' + mydum <- paste(mydum,round(selection[[2]][j,i],4),sep='') + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/8era91324641681.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated ARIMA Residuals', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Value', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in (par4*par5+par3):length(resid)) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,resid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/9mjvp1324641681.tab") > > try(system("convert tmp/1vu9l1324641681.ps tmp/1vu9l1324641681.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/2262z1324641681.ps tmp/2262z1324641681.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/3ljkd1324641681.ps tmp/3ljkd1324641681.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/410851324641681.ps tmp/410851324641681.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/5d6wg1324641681.ps tmp/5d6wg1324641681.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/6cwnt1324641681.ps tmp/6cwnt1324641681.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/7fa2z1324641681.ps tmp/7fa2z1324641681.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 2.633 0.495 3.145