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Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(235.1 + ,280.7 + ,264.6 + ,240.7 + ,201.4 + ,240.8 + ,241.1 + ,223.8 + ,206.1 + ,174.7 + ,203.3 + ,220.5 + ,299.5 + ,347.4 + ,338.3 + ,327.7 + ,351.6 + ,396.6 + ,438.8 + ,395.6 + ,363.5 + ,378.8 + ,357 + ,369 + ,464.8 + ,479.1 + ,431.3 + ,366.5 + ,326.3 + ,355.1 + ,331.6 + ,261.3 + ,249 + ,205.5 + ,235.6 + ,240.9 + ,264.9 + ,253.8 + ,232.3 + ,193.8 + ,177 + ,213.2 + ,207.2 + ,180.6 + ,188.6 + ,175.4 + ,199 + ,179.6 + ,225.8 + ,234 + ,200.2 + ,183.6 + ,178.2 + ,203.2 + ,208.5 + ,191.8 + ,172.8 + ,148 + ,159.4 + ,154.5 + ,213.2 + ,196.4 + ,182.8 + ,176.4 + ,153.6 + ,173.2 + ,171 + ,151.2 + ,161.9 + ,157.2 + ,201.7 + ,236.4 + ,356.1 + ,398.3 + ,403.7 + ,384.6 + ,365.8 + ,368.1 + ,367.9 + ,347 + ,343.3 + ,292.9 + ,311.5 + ,300.9 + ,366.9 + ,356.9 + ,329.7 + ,316.2 + ,269 + ,289.3 + ,266.2 + ,253.6 + ,233.8 + ,228.4 + ,253.6 + ,260.1 + ,306.6 + ,309.2 + ,309.5 + ,271 + ,279.9 + ,317.9 + ,298.4 + ,246.7 + ,227.3 + ,209.1 + ,259.9 + ,266 + ,320.6 + ,308.5 + ,282.2 + ,262.7 + ,263.5 + ,313.1 + ,284.3 + ,252.6 + ,250.3 + ,246.5 + ,312.7 + ,333.2 + ,446.4 + ,511.6 + ,515.5 + ,506.4 + ,483.2 + ,522.3 + ,509.8 + ,460.7 + ,405.8 + ,375 + ,378.5 + ,406.8 + ,467.8 + ,469.8 + ,429.8 + ,355.8 + ,332.7 + ,378 + ,360.5 + ,334.7 + ,319.5 + ,323.1 + ,363.6 + ,352.1 + ,411.9 + ,388.6 + ,416.4 + ,360.7 + ,338 + ,417.2 + ,388.4 + ,371.1 + ,331.5 + ,353.7 + ,396.7 + ,447 + ,533.5 + ,565.4 + ,542.3 + ,488.7 + ,467.1 + ,531.3 + ,496.1 + ,444 + ,403.4 + ,386.3 + ,394.1 + ,404.1 + ,462.1 + ,448.1 + ,432.3 + ,386.3 + ,395.2 + ,421.9 + ,382.9 + ,384.2 + ,345.5 + ,323.4 + ,372.6 + ,376 + ,462.7 + ,487 + ,444.2 + ,399.3 + ,394.9 + ,455.4 + ,414 + ,375.5 + ,347 + ,339.4 + ,385.8 + ,378.8 + ,451.8 + ,446.1 + ,422.5 + ,383.1 + ,352.8 + ,445.3 + ,367.5 + ,355.1 + ,326.2 + ,319.8 + ,331.8 + ,340.9 + ,394.1 + ,417.2 + ,369.9 + ,349.2 + ,321.4 + ,405.7 + ,342.9 + ,316.5 + ,284.2 + ,270.9 + ,288.8 + ,278.8 + ,324.4 + ,310.9 + ,299 + ,273 + ,279.3 + ,359.2 + ,305 + ,282.1 + ,250.3 + ,246.5 + ,257.9 + ,266.5 + ,315.9 + ,318.4 + ,295.4 + ,266.4 + ,245.8 + ,362.8 + ,324.9 + ,294.2 + ,289.5 + ,295.2 + ,290.3 + ,272 + ,307.4 + ,328.7 + ,292.9 + ,249.1 + ,230.4 + ,361.5 + ,321.7 + ,277.2 + ,260.7 + ,251 + ,257.6 + ,241.8 + ,287.5 + ,292.3 + ,274.7 + ,254.2 + ,230 + ,339 + ,318.2 + ,287 + ,295.8 + ,284 + ,271 + ,262.7 + ,340.6 + ,379.4 + ,373.3 + ,355.2 + ,338.4 + ,466.9 + ,451 + ,422 + ,429.2 + ,425.9 + ,460.7 + ,463.6 + ,541.4 + ,544.2 + ,517.5 + ,469.4 + ,439.4 + ,549 + ,533 + ,506.1 + ,484 + ,457 + ,481.5 + ,469.5 + ,544.7 + ,541.2 + ,521.5 + ,469.7 + ,434.4 + ,542.6 + ,517.3 + ,485.7 + ,465.8 + ,447 + ,426.6 + ,411.6 + ,467.5 + ,484.5 + ,451.2 + ,417.4 + ,379.9 + ,484.7 + ,455 + ,420.8 + ,416.5 + ,376.3 + ,405.6 + ,405.8 + ,500.8 + ,514 + ,475.5 + ,430.1 + ,414.4 + ,538 + ,526 + ,488.5 + ,520.2 + ,504.4 + ,568.5 + ,610.6 + ,818 + ,830.9 + ,835.9 + ,782 + ,762.3 + ,856.9 + ,820.9 + ,769.6 + ,752.2 + ,724.4 + ,723.1 + ,719.5 + ,817.4 + ,803.3 + ,752.5 + ,689 + ,630.4 + ,765.5 + ,757.7 + ,732.2 + ,702.6 + ,683.3 + ,709.5 + ,702.2 + ,784.8 + ,810.9 + ,755.6 + ,656.8 + ,615.1 + ,745.3 + ,694.1 + ,675.7 + ,643.7 + ,622.1 + ,634.6 + ,588 + ,689.7 + ,673.9 + ,647.9 + ,568.8 + ,545.7 + ,632.6 + ,643.8 + ,593.1 + ,579.7 + ,546 + ,562.9 + ,572.5) > par10 = 'FALSE' > par9 = '1' > par8 = '0' > par7 = '1' > par6 = '2' > par5 = '12' > par4 = '1' > par3 = '1' > par2 = '0.5' > par1 = '0' > par10 <- 'FALSE' > par9 <- '1' > par8 <- '0' > par7 <- '1' > par6 <- '2' > par5 <- '12' > par4 <- '1' > par3 <- '1' > par2 <- '0.5' > par1 <- '0' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: Wessa P., (2009), ARIMA Forecasting (v1.0.5) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_arimaforecasting.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: > #Technical description: > par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P > par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q > if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE > if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE > if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) > if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 > lx <- length(x) > first <- lx - 2*par1 > nx <- lx - par1 > nx1 <- nx + 1 > fx <- lx - nx > if (fx < 1) { + fx <- par5 + nx1 <- lx + fx - 1 + first <- lx - 2*fx + } > first <- 1 > if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0) > (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML')) Call: arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ma1 sma1 0.4619 0.1882 -0.3768 -0.7210 s.e. 0.1724 0.0657 0.1736 0.0403 sigma^2 estimated as 0.2826: log likelihood = -287.01, aic = 584.02 > (forecast <- predict(arima.out,par1)) Error in ts(z[[1L]] + xm, start = xtsp[2L] + deltat(rsd), frequency = xtsp[3L]) : 'ts' object must have one or more observations Calls: predict -> predict.Arima -> ts Execution halted