R version 2.15.2 (2012-10-26) -- "Trick or Treat"
Copyright (C) 2012 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0
Platform: i686-pc-linux-gnu (32-bit)

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You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions.
Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details.

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Type 'contributors()' for more information and
'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications.

Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or
'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help.
Type 'q()' to quit R.

> x <- c(236.422
+ ,250.580
+ ,279.515
+ ,264.417
+ ,283.706
+ ,281.288
+ ,271.146
+ ,283.944
+ ,269.155
+ ,270.899
+ ,276.507
+ ,319.957
+ ,250.746
+ ,247.772
+ ,280.449
+ ,274.925
+ ,296.013
+ ,287.881
+ ,279.098
+ ,294.763
+ ,261.924
+ ,291.596
+ ,287.537
+ ,326.201
+ ,255.598
+ ,253.086
+ ,285.261
+ ,284.747
+ ,300.402
+ ,288.854
+ ,295.433
+ ,307.256
+ ,273.189
+ ,287.540
+ ,290.705
+ ,337.006
+ ,268.335
+ ,259.060
+ ,293.703
+ ,294.262
+ ,312.404
+ ,301.014
+ ,309.942
+ ,317.079
+ ,293.912
+ ,304.060
+ ,301.299
+ ,357.634
+ ,281.493
+ ,282.478
+ ,319.111
+ ,315.223
+ ,328.445
+ ,321.081
+ ,328.040
+ ,326.362
+ ,313.566
+ ,319.768
+ ,324.315
+ ,387.243
+ ,293.308
+ ,295.109
+ ,339.190
+ ,335.678
+ ,345.401
+ ,351.002
+ ,351.889
+ ,355.773
+ ,333.363
+ ,336.214
+ ,343.910
+ ,405.788
+ ,318.682
+ ,314.189
+ ,362.141
+ ,351.811
+ ,373.727
+ ,366.795
+ ,362.393
+ ,376.006
+ ,346.423
+ ,349.007
+ ,357.224
+ ,418.473
+ ,329.169
+ ,323.456
+ ,374.439
+ ,358.806
+ ,391.816
+ ,376.944
+ ,372.665
+ ,388.357
+ ,354.241
+ ,368.982
+ ,378.233
+ ,426.699
+ ,343.241
+ ,344.577
+ ,373.623
+ ,369.688
+ ,398.816
+ ,379.387
+ ,384.666
+ ,383.879
+ ,351.578
+ ,350.920
+ ,336.629
+ ,385.504
+ ,311.330
+ ,300.545
+ ,329.718
+ ,331.023
+ ,348.944
+ ,345.650
+ ,349.260
+ ,354.597
+ ,325.769
+ ,339.734
+ ,340.543
+ ,401.585
+ ,315.998
+ ,312.327
+ ,362.217
+ ,358.067
+ ,367.321
+ ,360.372
+ ,363.830
+ ,364.525
+ ,347.945
+ ,357.404
+ ,368.182
+ ,429.343)
> par3 = 'additive'
> par2 = 'Triple'
> par1 = '11'
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
> if (par2 == 'Single') K <- 1
> if (par2 == 'Double') K <- 2
> if (par2 == 'Triple') K <- par1
> nx <- length(x)
> nxmK <- nx - K
> x <- ts(x, frequency = par1)
> if (par2 == 'Single') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=0, beta=0)
> if (par2 == 'Double') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=0)
> if (par2 == 'Triple') fit <- HoltWinters(x, seasonal=par3)
> fit
Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with trend and additive seasonal component.

Call:
 HoltWinters(x = x, seasonal = par3) 

Smoothing parameters:
 alpha:  0.1092142 
 beta :  0 
 gamma:  0.1983137 

Coefficients:
           [,1]
a   367.2984164
b     0.6069552
s1    3.0668939
s2    6.8514377
s3    3.3758594
s4    7.2724807
s5    2.7874181
s6    4.4324148
s7   -0.1763975
s8   -2.2058647
s9   -0.7697912
s10   4.3944370
s11   4.9225455
> myresid <- x - fit$fitted[,'xhat']
> postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/1z2qh1352558210.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1))
> plot(fit,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Interpolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
> plot(myresid,ylab='Residuals',main='Interpolation Prediction Errors')
> par(op)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/2u8xc1352558210.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> p <- predict(fit, par1, prediction.interval=TRUE)
> np <- length(p[,1])
> plot(fit,p,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Extrapolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/3qus01352558210.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
> acf(as.numeric(myresid),lag.max = nx/2,main='Residual ACF')
> spectrum(myresid,main='Residals Periodogram')
> cpgram(myresid,main='Residal Cumulative Periodogram')
> qqnorm(myresid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot')
> qqline(myresid)
> par(op)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> 
> #Note: the /var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab
> load(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable")
> 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing',2,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Value',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'alpha',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,fit$alpha)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'beta',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,fit$beta)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'gamma',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,fit$gamma)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/48zzf1352558210.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Fitted',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Residuals',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:nxmK) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i+K,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i+K])
+ a<-table.element(a,fit$fitted[i,'xhat'])
+ a<-table.element(a,myresid[i])
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/5af3l1352558210.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Forecast',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% Lower Bound',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% Upper Bound',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:np) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,p[i,'fit'])
+ a<-table.element(a,p[i,'lwr'])
+ a<-table.element(a,p[i,'upr'])
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/62h461352558210.tab") 
> 
> try(system("convert tmp/1z2qh1352558210.ps tmp/1z2qh1352558210.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> try(system("convert tmp/2u8xc1352558210.ps tmp/2u8xc1352558210.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> try(system("convert tmp/3qus01352558210.ps tmp/3qus01352558210.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  2.613   0.453   3.116