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Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- array(list(35.323,186.577,186.59,35.478,244.642,244.665,4.39,248.18,248.18,41.667,253.568,253.568,22.173,171.239,171.242,28.021,413.945,413.971,18.109,216.89,216.89,13.962,227.901,227.901,40.174,259.813,259.823,16.065,148.438,148.438,18.145,240.984,241.013,18.439,206.248,206.248,10.603,108.873,108.908,34.811,267.945,267.952,69.064,314.171,314.219,51.202,235.115,235.115,14.786,203.023,203.027,33.01,365.415,365.415,81.101,350.881,350.933,89.232,263.287,263.304,21.223,738.743,738.751,15.173,959.072,959.073,241.66,483.618,483.828,26.848,212.996,213.016,8.752,177.326,177.341,60.535,352.594,352.622,60.535,352.594,352.622,26.052,217.305,217.307),dim=c(3,28),dimnames=list(c('TFC','TLC','TP'),1:28)) > y <- array(NA,dim=c(3,28),dimnames=list(c('TFC','TLC','TP'),1:28)) > for (i in 1:dim(x)[1]) + { + for (j in 1:dim(x)[2]) + { + y[i,j] <- as.numeric(x[i,j]) + } + } > par3 = 'No Linear Trend' > par2 = 'Do not include Seasonal Dummies' > par1 = '3' > library(lattice) > library(lmtest) Loading required package: zoo Attaching package: 'zoo' The following object(s) are masked from 'package:base': as.Date, as.Date.numeric > n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test > par1 <- as.numeric(par1) > x <- t(y) > k <- length(x[1,]) > n <- length(x[,1]) > x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1]) > mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1]) > colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1] > x <- x1 > if (par3 == 'First Differences'){ + x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep=''))) + for (i in 1:n-1) { + for (j in 1:k) { + x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j] + } + } + x <- x2 + } > if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){ + x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep =''))) + for (i in 1:11){ + x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1 + } + x <- cbind(x, x2) + } > if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){ + x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep =''))) + for (i in 1:3){ + x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1 + } + x <- cbind(x, x2) + } > k <- length(x[1,]) > if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){ + x <- cbind(x, c(1:n)) + colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't' + } > x TP TFC TLC 1 186.590 35.323 186.577 2 244.665 35.478 244.642 3 248.180 4.390 248.180 4 253.568 41.667 253.568 5 171.242 22.173 171.239 6 413.971 28.021 413.945 7 216.890 18.109 216.890 8 227.901 13.962 227.901 9 259.823 40.174 259.813 10 148.438 16.065 148.438 11 241.013 18.145 240.984 12 206.248 18.439 206.248 13 108.908 10.603 108.873 14 267.952 34.811 267.945 15 314.219 69.064 314.171 16 235.115 51.202 235.115 17 203.027 14.786 203.023 18 365.415 33.010 365.415 19 350.933 81.101 350.881 20 263.304 89.232 263.287 21 738.751 21.223 738.743 22 959.073 15.173 959.072 23 483.828 241.660 483.618 24 213.016 26.848 212.996 25 177.341 8.752 177.326 26 352.622 60.535 352.594 27 352.622 60.535 352.594 28 217.307 26.052 217.305 > k <- length(x[1,]) > df <- as.data.frame(x) > (mylm <- lm(df)) Call: lm(formula = df) Coefficients: (Intercept) TFC TLC -0.0121356 0.0008057 1.0000004 > (mysum <- summary(mylm)) Call: lm(formula = df) Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -0.042854 -0.008767 -0.001099 0.006973 0.038553 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -1.214e-02 6.854e-03 -1.771 0.0888 . TFC 8.057e-04 7.600e-05 10.601 9.75e-11 *** TLC 1.000e+00 1.927e-05 51897.382 < 2e-16 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 Residual standard error: 0.01746 on 25 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: 1, Adjusted R-squared: 1 F-statistic: 1.401e+09 on 2 and 25 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16 > if (n > n25) { + kp3 <- k + 3 + nmkm3 <- n - k - 3 + gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3)) + numgqtests <- 0 + numsignificant1 <- 0 + numsignificant5 <- 0 + numsignificant10 <- 0 + for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) { + j <- 0 + numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1 + for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) { + j <- j + 1 + gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value + } + if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1 + if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1 + if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1 + } + gqarr + } [,1] [,2] [,3] [1,] 0.214676802 0.42935360 0.7853232 [2,] 0.104758703 0.20951741 0.8952413 [3,] 0.044840140 0.08968028 0.9551599 [4,] 0.019367406 0.03873481 0.9806326 [5,] 0.007017156 0.01403431 0.9929828 [6,] 0.034511387 0.06902277 0.9654886 [7,] 0.016681643 0.03336329 0.9833184 [8,] 0.217588013 0.43517603 0.7824120 [9,] 0.140750892 0.28150178 0.8592491 [10,] 0.164630016 0.32926003 0.8353700 [11,] 0.219337340 0.43867468 0.7806627 [12,] 0.150290375 0.30058075 0.8497096 [13,] 0.118427347 0.23685469 0.8815727 [14,] 0.087082852 0.17416570 0.9129171 [15,] 0.559857769 0.88028446 0.4401422 [16,] 0.411703571 0.82340714 0.5882964 [17,] 0.693388879 0.61322224 0.3066111 > postscript(file="/var/fisher/rcomp/tmp/19jdp1353323150.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index') > points(x[,1]-mysum$resid) > grid() > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/fisher/rcomp/tmp/2i6jq1353323150.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index') > grid() > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/fisher/rcomp/tmp/3u09b1353323150.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals') > grid() > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/fisher/rcomp/tmp/4diz51353323150.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/fisher/rcomp/tmp/5a4ef1353323150.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot') > qqline(mysum$resid) > grid() > dev.off() null device 1 > (myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid)) Time Series: Start = 1 End = 28 Frequency = 1 1 2 3 4 5 -0.0033924689 0.0064611953 0.0085069877 -0.0215284802 -0.0027920588 6 7 8 9 10 0.0154066229 -0.0025346276 0.0008024749 -0.0103279017 -0.0008625170 11 12 13 14 15 0.0264274652 -0.0027965710 0.0385527474 -0.0090100240 0.0043758066 16 17 18 19 20 -0.0292038575 0.0041477837 -0.0145950022 -0.0013357742 -0.0428544239 21 22 23 24 25 0.0027636499 0.0005566264 0.0272553858 0.0104259401 0.0200187750 26 27 28 -0.0087667130 -0.0087667130 -0.0069343278 > postscript(file="/var/fisher/rcomp/tmp/6r4ui1353323150.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror) > dum Time Series: Start = 0 End = 28 Frequency = 1 lag(myerror, k = 1) myerror 0 -0.0033924689 NA 1 0.0064611953 -0.0033924689 2 0.0085069877 0.0064611953 3 -0.0215284802 0.0085069877 4 -0.0027920588 -0.0215284802 5 0.0154066229 -0.0027920588 6 -0.0025346276 0.0154066229 7 0.0008024749 -0.0025346276 8 -0.0103279017 0.0008024749 9 -0.0008625170 -0.0103279017 10 0.0264274652 -0.0008625170 11 -0.0027965710 0.0264274652 12 0.0385527474 -0.0027965710 13 -0.0090100240 0.0385527474 14 0.0043758066 -0.0090100240 15 -0.0292038575 0.0043758066 16 0.0041477837 -0.0292038575 17 -0.0145950022 0.0041477837 18 -0.0013357742 -0.0145950022 19 -0.0428544239 -0.0013357742 20 0.0027636499 -0.0428544239 21 0.0005566264 0.0027636499 22 0.0272553858 0.0005566264 23 0.0104259401 0.0272553858 24 0.0200187750 0.0104259401 25 -0.0087667130 0.0200187750 26 -0.0087667130 -0.0087667130 27 -0.0069343278 -0.0087667130 28 NA -0.0069343278 > dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),] > dum1 lag(myerror, k = 1) myerror [1,] 0.0064611953 -0.0033924689 [2,] 0.0085069877 0.0064611953 [3,] -0.0215284802 0.0085069877 [4,] -0.0027920588 -0.0215284802 [5,] 0.0154066229 -0.0027920588 [6,] -0.0025346276 0.0154066229 [7,] 0.0008024749 -0.0025346276 [8,] -0.0103279017 0.0008024749 [9,] -0.0008625170 -0.0103279017 [10,] 0.0264274652 -0.0008625170 [11,] -0.0027965710 0.0264274652 [12,] 0.0385527474 -0.0027965710 [13,] -0.0090100240 0.0385527474 [14,] 0.0043758066 -0.0090100240 [15,] -0.0292038575 0.0043758066 [16,] 0.0041477837 -0.0292038575 [17,] -0.0145950022 0.0041477837 [18,] -0.0013357742 -0.0145950022 [19,] -0.0428544239 -0.0013357742 [20,] 0.0027636499 -0.0428544239 [21,] 0.0005566264 0.0027636499 [22,] 0.0272553858 0.0005566264 [23,] 0.0104259401 0.0272553858 [24,] 0.0200187750 0.0104259401 [25,] -0.0087667130 0.0200187750 [26,] -0.0087667130 -0.0087667130 [27,] -0.0069343278 -0.0087667130 > z <- as.data.frame(dum1) > z lag(myerror, k = 1) myerror 1 0.0064611953 -0.0033924689 2 0.0085069877 0.0064611953 3 -0.0215284802 0.0085069877 4 -0.0027920588 -0.0215284802 5 0.0154066229 -0.0027920588 6 -0.0025346276 0.0154066229 7 0.0008024749 -0.0025346276 8 -0.0103279017 0.0008024749 9 -0.0008625170 -0.0103279017 10 0.0264274652 -0.0008625170 11 -0.0027965710 0.0264274652 12 0.0385527474 -0.0027965710 13 -0.0090100240 0.0385527474 14 0.0043758066 -0.0090100240 15 -0.0292038575 0.0043758066 16 0.0041477837 -0.0292038575 17 -0.0145950022 0.0041477837 18 -0.0013357742 -0.0145950022 19 -0.0428544239 -0.0013357742 20 0.0027636499 -0.0428544239 21 0.0005566264 0.0027636499 22 0.0272553858 0.0005566264 23 0.0104259401 0.0272553858 24 0.0200187750 0.0104259401 25 -0.0087667130 0.0200187750 26 -0.0087667130 -0.0087667130 27 -0.0069343278 -0.0087667130 > plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals') > lines(lowess(z)) > abline(lm(z)) > grid() > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/fisher/rcomp/tmp/7p6ii1353323150.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function') > grid() > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/fisher/rcomp/tmp/86rxg1353323150.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function') > grid() > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/fisher/rcomp/tmp/93wh91353323150.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0)) > plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics') > par(opar) > dev.off() null device 1 > if (n > n25) { + postscript(file="/var/fisher/rcomp/tmp/10cw051353323150.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) + plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint') + grid() + dev.off() + } null device 1 > > #Note: the /var/fisher/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/fisher/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > myeq <- colnames(x)[1] > myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='') > for (i in 1:k){ + if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '') + myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ') + if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') { + myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='') + if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='') + } + } > myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]') > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a, myeq) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/fisher/rcomp/tmp/11g20r1353323150.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in 1:k){ + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1]) + a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6)) + a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4)) + a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6)) + a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6)) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/fisher/rcomp/tmp/129lqr1353323150.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE) > a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared)) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE) > a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE) > a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE) > a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1]) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE) > a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2]) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE) > a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3]) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE) > a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3])) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE) > a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE) > a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror)) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/fisher/rcomp/tmp/13aszx1353323150.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE) > a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE) > a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation
Forecast', 1, TRUE) > a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals
Prediction Error', 1, TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in 1:n) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,x[i]) + a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i]) + a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/fisher/rcomp/tmp/14lsxe1353323150.tab") > if (n > n25) { + a<-table.start() + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE) + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE) + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE) + a<-table.row.end(a) + for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1]) + a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2]) + a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } + a<-table.end(a) + table.save(a,file="/var/fisher/rcomp/tmp/15hugf1353323151.tab") + a<-table.start() + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE) + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE) + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1) + a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests) + if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK' + a<-table.element(a,dum) + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5) + a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests) + if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK' + a<-table.element(a,dum) + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10) + a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests) + if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK' + a<-table.element(a,dum) + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.end(a) + table.save(a,file="/var/fisher/rcomp/tmp/16j8vj1353323151.tab") + } > > try(system("convert tmp/19jdp1353323150.ps tmp/19jdp1353323150.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/2i6jq1353323150.ps tmp/2i6jq1353323150.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/3u09b1353323150.ps tmp/3u09b1353323150.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/4diz51353323150.ps tmp/4diz51353323150.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/5a4ef1353323150.ps tmp/5a4ef1353323150.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/6r4ui1353323150.ps tmp/6r4ui1353323150.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/7p6ii1353323150.ps tmp/7p6ii1353323150.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/86rxg1353323150.ps tmp/86rxg1353323150.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/93wh91353323150.ps tmp/93wh91353323150.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/10cw051353323150.ps tmp/10cw051353323150.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 6.033 1.340 7.412