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Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(36439,36368,36290,36147,37615,37543,36439,35705,35777,35777,35848,35998,35998,35335,35043,35335,36368,36218,34822,33640,33419,32977,33276,33640,33497,33198,32614,33198,33718,33568,31873,31139,30405,29814,29743,30184,29593,29372,29151,30405,30548,29814,27826,26943,25547,24955,25247,25689,25689,25326,25247,26430,27385,26943,25468,24735,23189,22234,22968,23702,23702,22747,22676,23922,24735,24442,22968,22013,19947,19142,19434,20688,20759,18921,19584,21201,21935,21493,19506,18109,16492,15238,15751,16855,16563,14946,15459,17076,17960,17447,15459,14576,13251,11854,12075,13179,13322,11997,12218,14063,14504,13764,11042,9646,7801,5963,6554,7359,7217,5813,6625,8613,9496,9055,7288,5892,4417,2721,3021,3534) > par3 = 'additive' > par2 = 'Triple' > par1 = '12' > par3 <- 'additive' > par2 <- 'Triple' > par1 <- '12' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.2.327 () > #Author: root > #To cite this work: Wessa P., (2013), Exponential Smoothing (v1.0.5) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_exponentialsmoothing.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: > # > par1 <- as.numeric(par1) > if (par2 == 'Single') K <- 1 > if (par2 == 'Double') K <- 2 > if (par2 == 'Triple') K <- par1 > nx <- length(x) > nxmK <- nx - K > x <- ts(x, frequency = par1) > if (par2 == 'Single') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F, beta=F) > if (par2 == 'Double') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F) > if (par2 == 'Triple') fit <- HoltWinters(x, seasonal=par3) > fit Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with trend and additive seasonal component. Call: HoltWinters(x = x, seasonal = par3) Smoothing parameters: alpha: 0.4008514 beta : 0.03689827 gamma: 1 Coefficients: [,1] a 5179.8111 b -321.4464 s1 -787.7593 s2 -1715.3770 s3 -666.4614 s4 1530.7207 s5 2533.5130 s6 2207.7040 s7 371.2067 s8 -834.7569 s9 -2120.8017 s10 -3518.6111 s11 -2764.9910 s12 -1645.8111 > myresid <- x - fit$fitted[,'xhat'] > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/19le01376319958.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1)) > plot(fit,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Interpolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing') > plot(myresid,ylab='Residuals',main='Interpolation Prediction Errors') > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/2k8fn1376319958.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > p <- predict(fit, par1, prediction.interval=TRUE) > np <- length(p[,1]) > plot(fit,p,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Extrapolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/3kztt1376319958.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2)) > acf(as.numeric(myresid),lag.max = nx/2,main='Residual ACF') > spectrum(myresid,main='Residals Periodogram') > cpgram(myresid,main='Residal Cumulative Periodogram') > qqnorm(myresid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot') > qqline(myresid) > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > > #Note: the /var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing',2,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Value',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'alpha',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$alpha) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'beta',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$beta) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'gamma',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$gamma) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/4rozc1376319958.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Fitted',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Residuals',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in 1:nxmK) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,i+K,header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,x[i+K]) + a<-table.element(a,fit$fitted[i,'xhat']) + a<-table.element(a,myresid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/59q9t1376319958.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Forecast',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'95% Lower Bound',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'95% Upper Bound',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in 1:np) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'fit']) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'lwr']) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'upr']) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/67gl11376319958.tab") > > try(system("convert tmp/19le01376319958.ps tmp/19le01376319958.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/2k8fn1376319958.ps tmp/2k8fn1376319958.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/3kztt1376319958.ps tmp/3kztt1376319958.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 4.199 0.811 5.428