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Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(41,39,50,40,43,38,44,35,39,35,29,49,50,59,63,32,39,47,53,60,57,52,70,90,74,62,55,84,94,70,108,139,120,97,126,149,158,124,140,109,114,77,120,133,110,92,97,78,99,107,112,90,98,125,155,190,236,189,174,178,136,161,171,149,184,155,276,224,213,279,268,287,238,213,257,293,212,246,353,339,308,247,257,322,298,273,312,249,286,279,309,401,309,328,353,354,327,324,285,243,241,287,355,460,364,487,452,391,500,451,375,372,302,316,398,394,431,431) > par9 = '1' > par8 = '1' > par7 = '1' > par6 = '3' > par5 = '12' > par4 = '0' > par3 = '1' > par2 = '0.0' > par1 = 'FALSE' > par9 <- '1' > par8 <- '1' > par7 <- '1' > par6 <- '3' > par5 <- '12' > par4 <- '0' > par3 <- '1' > par2 <- '0.0' > par1 <- 'FALSE' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.2.327 () > #Author: root > #To cite this work: Wessa P., (2013), ARIMA Backward Selection (v1.0.5) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_arimabackwardselection.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education > # > library(lattice) > if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE > if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial > par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial > armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){ + try1 <- arima.out$coef + try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef)) + try.data.frame <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names))) + dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv')) + try.data.frame[,1] <- try1 + for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i] + try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2] + try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5) + vector <- rep(NA,length(names)) + vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0 + maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4]) + continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05 + vector[maxi] <- 0 + list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue) + } > arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){ + nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3] + coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc) + names <- NULL + if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='') + if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') ) + if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep='')) + if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep='')) + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML') + mylist[[1]] <- arima.out + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- FALSE + i <- 1 + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- 2 + aic <- arima.out$aic + while(!mystop){ + mylist[[i]] <- arima.out + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector) + aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic) + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- !last.arma$continue + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- i+1 + } + list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic) + } > arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){ + noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef) + coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]] + k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1 + coeff <- coeff[1:k,] + pval <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,] + aic <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k] + coeff[coeff==0] <- NA + n <- ncol(coeff) + if(missing(choix)) choix <- k + layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2, + 3,3,3,2, + 3,3,3,4, + 5,6,7,7),nr=4), + widths=c(10,35,45,15), + heights=c(30,30,15,15)) + couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50) + ticks <- pretty(coeff) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA) + points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA) + title('aic',line=2) + par(mar=c(3,0,0,0)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1)) + rect(xleft = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + ytop = rep(1,50), + ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA) + axis(1,ticks) + rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0) + text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks)) + for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) { + if(pval[j,i]<.01) symb = 'green' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.1) & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red' + else symb = 'black' + polygon(c(i+.5 ,i+.2 ,i+.5 ,i+.5), + c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5), + col=symb) + if(j==choix) { + rect(xleft=i-.5, + xright=i+.5, + ybottom=k-j+1.5, + ytop=k-j+.5, + lwd=4) + text(i, + k-j+1, + round(coeff[j,i],2), + cex=1.2, + font=2) + } + else{ + rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5) + text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1) + } + } + axis(3,1:n,noms) + par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8)) + cols <- c('green','orange','red','black') + niv <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1') + for(i in 0:3){ + polygon(c(1+2*i ,1+2*i ,1+2*i-.5 ,1+2*i), + c(.4 ,.7 , .4 , .4), + col=cols[i+1]) + text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5) + } + text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5) + text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2) + box() + residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + acf(residus,main='') + title('acf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + pacf(residus,main='') + title('pacf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(2,2,4,1)) + qqnorm(residus,main='') + title('qq-norm',line=.5) + qqline(residus) + residus + } > if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) > if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 > (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5))) [[1]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [1,] 0.4706673 -0.002510129 0.1383920 -0.8330691 0.9823615 -0.8975786 [2,] 0.4788825 0.000000000 0.1420096 -0.8402690 0.9812912 -0.8937813 [3,] 0.3188525 0.000000000 0.0000000 -0.6864198 0.9836933 -0.9073493 [4,] 0.0000000 0.000000000 0.0000000 -0.4213580 0.9885587 -0.9210131 [5,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [6,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [[2]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [1,] 0.02656 0.98392 0.25889 2e-05 0 3e-05 [2,] 0.01357 NA 0.24219 0e+00 0 0e+00 [3,] 0.10523 NA NA 2e-05 0 0e+00 [4,] NA NA NA 4e-05 0 0e+00 [5,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [6,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [[3]] [[3]][[1]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sma1 0.4707 -0.0025 0.1384 -0.8331 0.9824 -0.8976 s.e. 0.2094 0.1242 0.1219 0.1878 0.0691 0.2080 sigma^2 estimated as 0.03212: log likelihood = 31.04, aic = -48.09 [[3]][[2]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sma1 0.4707 -0.0025 0.1384 -0.8331 0.9824 -0.8976 s.e. 0.2094 0.1242 0.1219 0.1878 0.0691 0.2080 sigma^2 estimated as 0.03212: log likelihood = 31.04, aic = -48.09 [[3]][[3]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sma1 0.4789 0 0.1420 -0.8403 0.9813 -0.8938 s.e. 0.1909 0 0.1208 0.1483 0.0624 0.1850 sigma^2 estimated as 0.03215: log likelihood = 31.05, aic = -50.09 [[3]][[4]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sma1 0.3189 0 0 -0.6864 0.9837 -0.9073 s.e. 0.1952 0 0 0.1520 0.0599 0.1772 sigma^2 estimated as 0.0326: log likelihood = 30.38, aic = -50.76 [[3]][[5]] NULL [[3]][[6]] NULL $aic [1] -48.08836 -50.09004 -50.76440 -50.43479 Warning messages: 1: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 2: In log(s2) : NaNs produced 3: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 4: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 5: In log(s2) : NaNs produced 6: In log(s2) : NaNs produced > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/1nqcw1386458249.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > resid <- arimaSelectplot(selection) > dev.off() null device 1 > resid Time Series: Start = 1 End = 118 Frequency = 1 [1] 0.003713570 -0.042919093 0.209562847 -0.136858544 0.039136820 [6] -0.108001214 0.097180826 -0.186939413 0.038538702 -0.104883359 [11] -0.213282756 0.392066400 0.136497821 0.250762051 0.130091857 [16] -0.507469201 0.012823324 0.154895235 0.125796342 0.222967859 [21] 0.030733902 -0.021091449 0.324450025 0.252195916 -0.056092208 [26] -0.167987010 -0.221575946 0.458511582 0.198853590 -0.176639366 [31] 0.342541260 0.375379811 0.025427035 -0.104818720 0.213301185 [36] 0.103806763 0.148601648 -0.151139120 0.059160579 -0.165252592 [41] -0.068555985 -0.388700536 0.170782713 0.089155007 -0.132761378 [46] -0.150176573 -0.070484560 -0.391012746 0.090461293 0.098424853 [51] 0.036662839 -0.101123887 0.000367306 0.308573062 0.174724127 [56] 0.264484603 0.377120006 0.037855921 -0.063123977 -0.063494556 [61] -0.302108028 0.072608114 0.009292532 -0.031967873 0.138947036 [66] -0.079875683 0.399400313 -0.115542995 -0.040422843 0.341658842 [71] 0.044968444 0.045516831 -0.131707528 -0.143024444 0.079755198 [76] 0.243125885 -0.298600930 0.120735715 0.177484210 0.007952501 [81] -0.057876933 -0.180471929 -0.059165165 0.102864505 -0.016535224 [86] -0.070414268 0.051137550 -0.132676956 0.061266408 0.016384902 [91] -0.101378674 0.206284876 -0.172915784 0.082835139 0.060753826 [96] -0.058809041 -0.051289661 -0.010445282 -0.200183655 -0.142384304 [101] -0.125450299 0.133744732 0.040170149 0.239413728 -0.093233341 [106] 0.337599415 0.016550108 -0.177576395 0.235872063 -0.011824839 [111] -0.208123372 0.018705401 -0.257543564 -0.043135807 -0.014218800 [116] -0.090707140 0.109507789 0.047619375 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/2loqp1386458249.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > acf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/32w7e1386458249.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > pacf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/4m7rf1386458249.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > cpgram(resid, main='Residual Cumulative Periodogram') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/5d2ww1386458249.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > hist(resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/6qmqj1386458249.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > densityplot(~resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/7md061386458249.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > qqnorm(resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot') > qqline(resid) > dev.off() null device 1 > ncols <- length(selection[[1]][1,]) > nrows <- length(selection[[2]][,1])-1 > > #Note: the /var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection', ncols+1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Iteration', header=TRUE) > for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,names(selection[[3]][[1]]$coef)[i],header=TRUE) + } > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (j in 1:nrows) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + mydum <- 'Estimates (' + mydum <- paste(mydum,j) + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum, header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,round(selection[[1]][j,i],4)) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'(p-val)', header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + mydum <- '(' + mydum <- paste(mydum,round(selection[[2]][j,i],4),sep='') + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/864o61386458250.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated ARIMA Residuals', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Value', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in (par4*par5+par3):length(resid)) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,resid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/9x8g71386458250.tab") > > try(system("convert tmp/1nqcw1386458249.ps tmp/1nqcw1386458249.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/2loqp1386458249.ps tmp/2loqp1386458249.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/32w7e1386458249.ps tmp/32w7e1386458249.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/4m7rf1386458249.ps tmp/4m7rf1386458249.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/5d2ww1386458249.ps tmp/5d2ww1386458249.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/6qmqj1386458249.ps tmp/6qmqj1386458249.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/7md061386458249.ps tmp/7md061386458249.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 10.188 1.402 11.685