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Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(107.2,107.56,107.72,108.14,108.16,108.16,108.16,108.1,108.95,110.49,110.72,110.82,110.82,110.75,110.71,110.86,110.84,110.84,110.84,110.92,111.46,112.46,113.04,113.15,113.15,113.21,113.37,113.47,113.71,113.71,113.71,113.8,115.46,117,117.94,118.08,118.08,118.47,118.49,118.45,118.54,118.55,118.55,118.55,119.04,121.37,122,122.14,122.14,122.03,121.91,122.23,121.73,121.83,121.83,122.49,123.02,125.98,126.13,126.39,126.39,126.57,126.87,127.26,126.82,126.7,126.7,126.7,128.53,130.37,130.39,130.65,130.65,130.65,130.85,130.89,130.85,131.6,131.6,131.6,132.53,133.05,133.49,133.46) > par3 = 'multiplicative' > par2 = 'Triple' > par1 = '12' > par3 <- 'multiplicative' > par2 <- 'Triple' > par1 <- '12' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.2.327 () > #Author: root > #To cite this work: Wessa P., (2013), Exponential Smoothing (v1.0.5) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_exponentialsmoothing.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: > # > par1 <- as.numeric(par1) > if (par2 == 'Single') K <- 1 > if (par2 == 'Double') K <- 2 > if (par2 == 'Triple') K <- par1 > nx <- length(x) > nxmK <- nx - K > x <- ts(x, frequency = par1) > if (par2 == 'Single') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F, beta=F) > if (par2 == 'Double') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F) > if (par2 == 'Triple') fit <- HoltWinters(x, seasonal=par3) > fit Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with trend and multiplicative seasonal component. Call: HoltWinters(x = x, seasonal = par3) Smoothing parameters: alpha: 0.8814017 beta : 0.0275707 gamma: 0 Coefficients: [,1] a 132.6049917 b 0.3001917 s1 1.0045802 s2 1.0018638 s3 0.9994933 s4 0.9991632 s5 0.9973757 s6 0.9956394 s7 0.9935378 s8 0.9904045 s9 0.9958421 s10 1.0077261 s11 1.0077552 s12 1.0066186 > myresid <- x - fit$fitted[,'xhat'] > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/1ck431387377406.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1)) > plot(fit,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Interpolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing') > plot(myresid,ylab='Residuals',main='Interpolation Prediction Errors') > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/2n7ih1387377406.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > p <- predict(fit, par1, prediction.interval=TRUE) > np <- length(p[,1]) > plot(fit,p,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Extrapolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/34z8x1387377406.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2)) > acf(as.numeric(myresid),lag.max = nx/2,main='Residual ACF') > spectrum(myresid,main='Residals Periodogram') > cpgram(myresid,main='Residal Cumulative Periodogram') > qqnorm(myresid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot') > qqline(myresid) > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > > #Note: the /var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing',2,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Value',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'alpha',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$alpha) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'beta',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$beta) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'gamma',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$gamma) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/4h6o21387377406.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Fitted',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Residuals',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in 1:nxmK) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,i+K,header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,x[i+K]) + a<-table.element(a,fit$fitted[i,'xhat']) + a<-table.element(a,myresid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/5hgj61387377406.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Forecast',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'95% Lower Bound',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'95% Upper Bound',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in 1:np) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'fit']) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'lwr']) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'upr']) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/6n6u61387377406.tab") > > try(system("convert tmp/1ck431387377406.ps tmp/1ck431387377406.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/2n7ih1387377406.ps tmp/2n7ih1387377406.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/34z8x1387377406.ps tmp/34z8x1387377406.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 3.459 0.746 4.113