R version 3.1.0 (2014-04-10) -- "Spring Dance"
Copyright (C) 2014 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
Platform: i686-pc-linux-gnu (32-bit)

R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY.
You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions.
Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details.

R is a collaborative project with many contributors.
Type 'contributors()' for more information and
'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications.

Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or
'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help.
Type 'q()' to quit R.

> x <- c(85,82,92.4,100.3,105.2,104.5,105.1,105,106.5,106,99.4,107.4,89.6,85.3,96.3,107.7,112.7,110.1,110.4,111.6,113.3,109,106.5,113,95.6,93.8,106.4,116.6,119.1,120.9,117.3,117.6,115.3,112.3,107.7,113.4,94.3,97.8,106.6,113,122.4,114.6,115,118.7,110.4,111.6,105.1,107.5,92.9,91,100.2,112.2,116.5,111.2,113.3,112.2,102.2,105.3,96,101.3,86.2,84.4,93.4,104.8,106.2,101.9,105.5,106.4,103.9,108.6,96.4,102.2,90.3,88.5,100.2,111.6,111.5,112.9,110.7,105.5,110.7,108.9,101.3,109.6,94.4,91.4,105.8,112.9,116.1,113.7,112.9,110.7,114.3,109.7,105.7,114)
> par3 = 'additive'
> par2 = 'Triple'
> par1 = '12'
> par3 <- 'additive'
> par2 <- 'Triple'
> par1 <- '12'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.2.327 ()
> #Author: root
> #To cite this work: Wessa P., (2013), Exponential Smoothing (v1.0.5) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_exponentialsmoothing.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: 
> #
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
> if (par2 == 'Single') K <- 1
> if (par2 == 'Double') K <- 2
> if (par2 == 'Triple') K <- par1
> nx <- length(x)
> nxmK <- nx - K
> x <- ts(x, frequency = par1)
> if (par2 == 'Single') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F, beta=F)
> if (par2 == 'Double') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F)
> if (par2 == 'Triple') fit <- HoltWinters(x, seasonal=par3)
> fit
Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with trend and additive seasonal component.

Call:
HoltWinters(x = x, seasonal = par3)

Smoothing parameters:
 alpha: 0.4811127
 beta : 0.04279272
 gamma: 0.6696082

Coefficients:
           [,1]
a   111.2923708
b     0.2251018
s1  -13.1516302
s2  -15.3499359
s3   -3.6347585
s4    4.8216642
s5    7.2063352
s6    4.9945048
s7    4.4864599
s8    2.8188696
s9    4.0600011
s10   1.7975764
s11  -4.6703270
s12   2.2689044
> myresid <- x - fit$fitted[,'xhat']
> postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/1g7iw1400161545.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1))
> plot(fit,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Interpolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
> plot(myresid,ylab='Residuals',main='Interpolation Prediction Errors')
> par(op)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/2nlrw1400161545.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> p <- predict(fit, par1, prediction.interval=TRUE)
> np <- length(p[,1])
> plot(fit,p,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Extrapolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/3pqup1400161545.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
> acf(as.numeric(myresid),lag.max = nx/2,main='Residual ACF')
> spectrum(myresid,main='Residals Periodogram')
> cpgram(myresid,main='Residal Cumulative Periodogram')
> qqnorm(myresid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot')
> qqline(myresid)
> par(op)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> 
> #Note: the /var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab
> load(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable")
> 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing',2,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Value',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'alpha',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,fit$alpha)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'beta',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,fit$beta)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'gamma',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,fit$gamma)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/46a8l1400161545.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Fitted',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Residuals',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:nxmK) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i+K,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i+K])
+ a<-table.element(a,fit$fitted[i,'xhat'])
+ a<-table.element(a,myresid[i])
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/52ybt1400161545.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Forecast',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% Lower Bound',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% Upper Bound',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:np) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,p[i,'fit'])
+ a<-table.element(a,p[i,'lwr'])
+ a<-table.element(a,p[i,'upr'])
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/6okjg1400161546.tab") 
> 
> try(system("convert tmp/1g7iw1400161545.ps tmp/1g7iw1400161545.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> try(system("convert tmp/2nlrw1400161545.ps tmp/2nlrw1400161545.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> try(system("convert tmp/3pqup1400161545.ps tmp/3pqup1400161545.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  1.815   0.285   2.114