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Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(2.79,3.08,3.89,3.7,4.61,5.07,5.22,4.93,5.15,4.8,3.89,3.54,3.34,2.8,1.6,1.53,0.69,-0.11,-0.67,-0.2,-0.62,-0.58,-0.31,-0.25,-0.08,0.13,0.94,1.05,1.59,2.03,2.15,2.06,2.56,2.55,2.53,2.6,2.71,2.82,2.93,2.88,2.89,3.27,3.32,3.14,3.04,3.08,3.39,3.23,3.38,3.41,3.14,2.96,2.73,2.21,2.23,2.56,2.39,2.49,2.17,2.16,1.48,1.09,1.25,1.26,1.39,1.69,1.55,1.19,1.08,0.93,0.98,1.01) > par3 = 'additive' > par2 = 'Triple' > par1 = '12' > par1 <- as.numeric(par1) > if (par2 == 'Single') K <- 1 > if (par2 == 'Double') K <- 2 > if (par2 == 'Triple') K <- par1 > nx <- length(x) > nxmK <- nx - K > x <- ts(x, frequency = par1) > if (par2 == 'Single') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F, beta=F) > if (par2 == 'Double') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F) > if (par2 == 'Triple') fit <- HoltWinters(x, seasonal=par3) > fit Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with trend and additive seasonal component. Call: HoltWinters(x = x, seasonal = par3) Smoothing parameters: alpha: 0.7291744 beta : 0.1691927 gamma: 1 Coefficients: [,1] a 0.44534566 b -0.13033496 s1 0.06571098 s2 0.00684522 s3 -0.02413185 s4 -0.17348637 s5 -0.30174827 s6 -0.52533744 s7 -0.50072360 s8 -0.18446934 s9 0.24918272 s10 0.60710205 s11 0.69649931 s12 0.56465434 > myresid <- x - fit$fitted[,'xhat'] > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/1howk1400657809.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1)) > plot(fit,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Interpolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing') > plot(myresid,ylab='Residuals',main='Interpolation Prediction Errors') > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/22rfj1400657809.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > p <- predict(fit, par1, prediction.interval=TRUE) > np <- length(p[,1]) > plot(fit,p,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Extrapolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/3r7y61400657809.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2)) > acf(as.numeric(myresid),lag.max = nx/2,main='Residual ACF') > spectrum(myresid,main='Residals Periodogram') > cpgram(myresid,main='Residal Cumulative Periodogram') > qqnorm(myresid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot') > qqline(myresid) > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > > #Note: the /var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing',2,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Value',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'alpha',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$alpha) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'beta',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$beta) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'gamma',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$gamma) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/4hspp1400657809.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Fitted',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Residuals',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in 1:nxmK) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,i+K,header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,x[i+K]) + a<-table.element(a,fit$fitted[i,'xhat']) + a<-table.element(a,myresid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/5l1ps1400657809.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Forecast',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'95% Lower Bound',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'95% Upper Bound',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in 1:np) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'fit']) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'lwr']) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'upr']) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/69gp71400657809.tab") > > try(system("convert tmp/1howk1400657809.ps tmp/1howk1400657809.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/22rfj1400657809.ps tmp/22rfj1400657809.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/3r7y61400657809.ps tmp/3r7y61400657809.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 1.709 0.339 2.062