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Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(79.58,80.08,80.41,80.34,80.32,80.39,81.01,81.54,82.48,84.68,88.26,90.6,92.46,93.31,93.58,93.92,93.92,93.67,93.76,93.95,93.89,94.07,93.93,93.35,93.58,93.55,93.44,93.38,93.17,92.95,93.37,94.13,94.07,94,94.47,94.81,94.18,94.14,93.96,93.23,93.13,92.51,92.49,92.73,92.75,92.83,92.85,93.27,93.98,94.34,94.57,94.62,94.82,95.07,95.72,96.06,96.54,96.38,96.8,97.02,97.29,97.45,97.95,97.69,97.63,97.35,97.38,98.06,98.34,98.53,98.79,98.77,99.2,99.76,99.84,99.83,99.88,99.48,99.66,99.58,99.89,100.7,101.19,100.99,101.52,101.75,101.56,102.57,102.66,102.62,102.76,102.73,102.26,101.72,101.48,100.93) > par3 = 'additive' > par2 = 'Double' > par1 = '12' > par1 <- as.numeric(par1) > if (par2 == 'Single') K <- 1 > if (par2 == 'Double') K <- 2 > if (par2 == 'Triple') K <- par1 > nx <- length(x) > nxmK <- nx - K > x <- ts(x, frequency = par1) > if (par2 == 'Single') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F, beta=F) > if (par2 == 'Double') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F) > if (par2 == 'Triple') fit <- HoltWinters(x, seasonal=par3) > fit Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with trend and without seasonal component. Call: HoltWinters(x = x, gamma = F) Smoothing parameters: alpha: 1 beta : 0.7773739 gamma: FALSE Coefficients: [,1] a 100.9300000 b -0.4939228 > myresid <- x - fit$fitted[,'xhat'] > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/1121z1450121433.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1)) > plot(fit,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Interpolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing') > plot(myresid,ylab='Residuals',main='Interpolation Prediction Errors') > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/21koe1450121433.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > p <- predict(fit, par1, prediction.interval=TRUE) > np <- length(p[,1]) > plot(fit,p,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Extrapolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/35sbb1450121433.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2)) > acf(as.numeric(myresid),lag.max = nx/2,main='Residual ACF') > spectrum(myresid,main='Residals Periodogram') > cpgram(myresid,main='Residal Cumulative Periodogram') > qqnorm(myresid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot') > qqline(myresid) > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > > #Note: the /var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing',2,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Value',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'alpha',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$alpha) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'beta',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$beta) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'gamma',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$gamma) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/4iikp1450121433.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Fitted',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Residuals',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in 1:nxmK) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,i+K,header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,x[i+K]) + a<-table.element(a,fit$fitted[i,'xhat']) + a<-table.element(a,myresid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/5vna11450121433.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Forecast',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'95% Lower Bound',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'95% Upper Bound',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in 1:np) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'fit']) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'lwr']) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'upr']) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/67rqo1450121433.tab") > > try(system("convert tmp/1121z1450121433.ps tmp/1121z1450121433.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/21koe1450121433.ps tmp/21koe1450121433.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/35sbb1450121433.ps tmp/35sbb1450121433.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 1.305 0.209 1.524