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Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(0.62,0.7,1.65,1.79,2.28,2.46,2.57,2.32,2.91,3.01,2.87,3.11,3.22,3.38,3.52,3.41,3.35,3.68,3.75,3.6,3.56,3.57,3.85,3.48,3.65,3.66,3.36,3.19,2.81,2.25,2.32,2.85,2.75,2.78,2.26,2.23,1.46,1.19,1.11,1,1.18,1.59,1.51,1.01,0.9,0.63,0.81,0.97,1.14,0.97,0.89,0.62,0.36,0.27,0.34,0.02,-0.12,0.09,-0.11,-0.38) > par3 = 'multiplicative' > par2 = 'Double' > par1 = '12' > par1 <- as.numeric(par1) > if (par2 == 'Single') K <- 1 > if (par2 == 'Double') K <- 2 > if (par2 == 'Triple') K <- par1 > nx <- length(x) > nxmK <- nx - K > x <- ts(x, frequency = par1) > if (par2 == 'Single') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F, beta=F) > if (par2 == 'Double') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F) > if (par2 == 'Triple') fit <- HoltWinters(x, seasonal=par3) > fit Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with trend and without seasonal component. Call: HoltWinters(x = x, gamma = F) Smoothing parameters: alpha: 1 beta : 0.09818181 gamma: FALSE Coefficients: [,1] a -0.3800000 b -0.1051775 > myresid <- x - fit$fitted[,'xhat'] > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/1dysr1448879671.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1)) > plot(fit,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Interpolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing') > plot(myresid,ylab='Residuals',main='Interpolation Prediction Errors') > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/22wca1448879671.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > p <- predict(fit, par1, prediction.interval=TRUE) > np <- length(p[,1]) > plot(fit,p,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Extrapolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/36yi31448879671.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2)) > acf(as.numeric(myresid),lag.max = nx/2,main='Residual ACF') > spectrum(myresid,main='Residals Periodogram') > cpgram(myresid,main='Residal Cumulative Periodogram') > qqnorm(myresid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot') > qqline(myresid) > par(op) > dev.off() null device 1 > > #Note: the /var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing',2,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Value',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'alpha',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$alpha) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'beta',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$beta) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'gamma',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,fit$gamma) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/4h2101448879671.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Fitted',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Residuals',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in 1:nxmK) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,i+K,header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,x[i+K]) + a<-table.element(a,fit$fitted[i,'xhat']) + a<-table.element(a,myresid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/5ki031448879671.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'Forecast',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'95% Lower Bound',header=TRUE) > a<-table.element(a,'95% Upper Bound',header=TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in 1:np) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'fit']) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'lwr']) + a<-table.element(a,p[i,'upr']) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/wessaorg/rcomp/tmp/61l5z1448879671.tab") > > try(system("convert tmp/1dysr1448879671.ps tmp/1dysr1448879671.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/22wca1448879671.ps tmp/22wca1448879671.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/36yi31448879671.ps tmp/36yi31448879671.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 1.172 0.242 1.420