source('/home/pw/wessanet/cretab')



myrfcuid = 'r0458189'

x <- c(46.8,52.8,58.3,54.5,64.7,58.3,57.5,56.7,56,66.2,58.2,53.9,53.1,54.4,59.2,57.8,61.5,60.1,60.1,58.4,56.8,63.8,53.9,63.1,55.7,54.9,64.6,60.2,63.9,69.9,58.5,52,66.7,72,68.4,70.8,56.5,62.6,66.5,69.2,63.7,73.6,64.1,53.8,72.2,80.2,69.1,72,66.3,72.5,88.9,88.6,73.7,86,70,71.6,90.5,85.7,84.8,81.1,70.8,65.7,86.2,76.1,79.8,85.2,75.8,69.4,85,75,77.7,68.5,68.4,65,73.2,67.9,76.5,85.5,71.7,57.9,75.5,78.2,75.7,67.1,74.6,66.2,74.9,69.5,76.1,82.3,82.1,60.5,71.2,81.4,74.5,61.4,83.8,85.4,91.6,91.9,86.3,96.8,81,70.8,98.8,94.5,84.5,92.8,81.2,75.7,86.7,87.5,87.8,103.1,96.4,77.1,106.5,95.7,95.3,86.6,89.6,81.9,98.4,92.9,83.9,121.8,103.9,87.5,118.9,109,112.2,100.1,111.3,102.7,122.6,124.8,120.3,118.3,108.7,100.7,124,103.1,115,112.7,101.7,111.5,114.4,112.5,107.2,136.7,107.8,94.6,110.7,126.6,127.9,109.2,87.1,90.8,94.5,103.3,103.2,105.4,103.9,79.8,105.6,113,87.7,110,90.3,108.9,105.1,113,100.4,110.1,114.7,88.6,117.2,127.7,107.8,102.8,100.2,108.4,114.2,94.4,92.2,115.3,102,86.3,112,112.5,109.5,105.9,115.3,126.2,112.2,112.5,106.9,90.6,75.6,78.8,101.8,93.9,100,89.2,97.7,121.1,108.8,92.9,113.6,112.6,98.8,78)
par10 = 'FALSE'
par9 = '1'
par8 = '0'
par7 = '1'
par6 = '0'
par5 = '12'
par4 = '1'
par3 = '1'
par2 = '-0.3'
par1 = '12'
par10 <- 'FALSE'
par9 <- '1'
par8 <- '0'
par7 <- '1'
par6 <- '0'
par5 <- '12'
par4 <- '1'
par3 <- '1'
par2 <- '-0.3'
par1 <- '12'
#'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.2.327 (Wed, 16 Nov 2016 12:47:20 +0100)
#Author: root
#To cite this work: Wessa P., (2016), ARIMA Forecasting (v1.0.10) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_arimaforecasting.wasp/
#Source of accompanying publication: 
#
par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
lx <- length(x)
first <- lx - 2*par1
nx <- lx - par1
nx1 <- nx + 1
fx <- lx - nx
if (fx < 1) {
fx <- par5*2
nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
first <- lx - 2*fx
}
first <- 1
if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
(arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))
(forecast <- predict(arima.out,fx))
(lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
(ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
if (par2 == 0) {
x <- exp(x)
forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
lb <- exp(lb)
ub <- exp(ub)
}
if (par2 != 0) {
x <- x^(1/par2)
forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
lb <- lb^(1/par2)
ub <- ub^(1/par2)
}
if (par2 < 0) {
olb <- lb
lb <- ub
ub <- olb
}
(actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
(perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
postscript(file="/home/pw/wessanet/rcomp/tmp/1dfxo1513848608.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
usr <- par('usr')
rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
lines(x, lwd=2)
lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
box()
par(opar)
dev.off()
prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
perf.spe <- array(0, dim=fx)
perf.scalederr <- array(0, dim=fx)
perf.mase <- array(0, dim=fx)
perf.mase1 <- array(0, dim=fx)
perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
perf.smape <- array(0, dim=fx)
perf.mape1 <- array(0, dim=fx)
perf.smape1 <- array(0,dim=fx)
perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
perf.mse1 <- array(0, dim=fx)
perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
perf.scaleddenom <- 0
for (i in 2:fx) {
perf.scaleddenom = perf.scaleddenom + abs(x[nx+i] - x[nx+i-1])
}
perf.scaleddenom = perf.scaleddenom / (fx-1)
for (i in 1:fx) {
locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
perf.scalederr[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / perf.scaleddenom
perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / x[nx+i]
perf.spe[i] = 2*(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / (x[nx+i] + forecast$pred[i])
perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
}
perf.mape[1] = abs(perf.pe[1])
perf.smape[1] = abs(perf.spe[1])
perf.mape1[1] = perf.mape[1]
perf.smape1[1] = perf.smape[1]
perf.mse[1] = perf.se[1]
perf.mase[1] = abs(perf.scalederr[1])
perf.mase1[1] = perf.mase[1]
for (i in 2:fx) {
perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i-1] + abs(perf.pe[i])
perf.mape1[i] = perf.mape[i] / i
perf.smape[i] = perf.smape[i-1] + abs(perf.spe[i])
perf.smape1[i] = perf.smape[i] / i
perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i-1] + perf.se[i]
perf.mse1[i] = perf.mse[i] / i
perf.mase[i] = perf.mase[i-1] + abs(perf.scalederr[i])
perf.mase1[i] = perf.mase[i] / i
}
perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse1)
postscript(file="/home/pw/wessanet/rcomp/tmp/2gqpg1513848608.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
dum <- forecast$pred
dum[1:par1] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
lines(dum, lty=1)
lines(ub,lty=3)
lines(lb,lty=3)
dev.off()

a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,'-')
a<-table.element(a,'-')
a<-table.element(a,'-')
a<-table.element(a,'-')
a<-table.element(a,'-')
a<-table.element(a,'-')
a<-table.element(a,'-')
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
for (i in 1:fx) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file="/home/pw/wessanet/rcomp/tmp/3guo31513848608.tab") 
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',10,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'sMAPE',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'ScaledE',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'MASE',1,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:fx) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape1[i],4))
a<-table.element(a,round(perf.smape1[i],4))
a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse1[i],4))
a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
a<-table.element(a,round(perf.scalederr[i],4))
a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mase1[i],4))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file="/home/pw/wessanet/rcomp/tmp/4suyn1513848608.tab") 

try(system("convert /home/pw/wessanet/rcomp/tmp/1dfxo1513848608.ps /home/pw/wessanet/rcomp/tmp/1dfxo1513848608.png",intern=TRUE))
try(system("convert /home/pw/wessanet/rcomp/tmp/2gqpg1513848608.ps /home/pw/wessanet/rcomp/tmp/2gqpg1513848608.png",intern=TRUE))